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Robin Edwards H ampshire County Council

Robin Edwards H ampshire County Council. Population and Household Forecasts for Output Areas Methods and Uses. Contents. Land Availability Monitoring System (LAMS) Use of LAMS data in Population Forecasting Model Outline of Complete Small Area Population Forecasting Model (SAPF)

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Robin Edwards H ampshire County Council

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  1. Robin EdwardsHampshire County Council Population and Household Forecasts for Output Areas Methods and Uses

  2. Contents • Land Availability Monitoring System (LAMS) • Use of LAMS data in Population Forecasting Model • Outline of Complete Small Area Population Forecasting Model (SAPF) • Outputs from Model and Uses

  3. Main Features of Land Availability Monitoring System (LAMS) • Planning decision and planning monitoring system • All planning consents granted in the county • All sites allocated in local and structure plans • Record created for each site and mapped on to GIS • Development progress – starts, completions • Estimated phasing of outstanding development

  4. Sites with Full Planning Permission Dwellings by • Number • Type • Tenure • Number of bedrooms • Completion year(s), actual or estimated

  5. Remaining Sites • Sites with Outline Planning Permission • Dwellings by number (estimated), type, tenure and estimated completion year • Allocated Sites • Dwellings by number and completion year (both estimated)

  6. LAMS Information into SAPF Model For each record • Output area code via link with GIS • Number of completions by type, tenure, number of bedrooms and year • Number of losses by year • Estimated phasing of outstanding development on large sites by year (with details where known)

  7. Output from LAMS; Input to SAPF

  8. Estimating Future Completions on Small Sites Sites not phased so estimates based on: • Past completion trends • Past geographical distribution

  9. Conversion of Dwelling Supply to Population Dwellings Type/Tenure Occupancy Rates Source: HCC Home Movers Survey 2002

  10. Basic Model Structure • Demolitions Module • Natural Change Module • Out Migration Module • Dwelling Stock Gains Module • Other In Migration Module

  11. Geographical Levels Recognised by Model • Output Areas • Wards • Districts • National (County)

  12. Age Ranges Recognised by Model • Single year of age and gender • Quinary age groups by gender • Aggregated age groups by gender

  13. Demolitions Module Inputs

  14. Natural Change Module Inputs

  15. Out Migration Module Inputs

  16. Inputs to In Migration to Existing Dwelling Stock Module

  17. Constrained Final Population Forecast • Basic assumption: in each district, rate of decline in average hhold size equals the average annual rate of decline between the two most recent censuses

  18. Inputs Required to Calculate Constraints for Final Population

  19. Model Outputs Population by: • 100 age groups • 2 genders • 5,400 Output Areas • 7 Forecast Years from Base Year • Hholds by age and gender of Hhold Rep • Total Dwelling Stock

  20. Components of Forecast Population Change • Births • Deaths • Out Migration due to Dwelling Stock Loss • Out Migration from Existing Dwelling Stock • In Migration to New Dwellings • In Migration to Existing Dwelling Stock

  21. Derived Outputs Population by • Parish • Ward • District • School Catchment Areas • Other Departmental Service Areas • Urban Areas • PCTs • Ad Hoc Areas via GIS • Economic Activity • Any Age Range

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