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Canada Pension Plan: Fertility Projections Panel 5: Roundtable Discussion

Canada Pension Plan: Fertility Projections Panel 5: Roundtable Discussion. SOA Annual Meeting 2005 Fertility Symposium. 15 November 2005. Presentation. Canadian Retirement System Size and aging of Canadian population Sensitivity tests – aging and financial impacts.

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Canada Pension Plan: Fertility Projections Panel 5: Roundtable Discussion

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  1. Canada Pension Plan:Fertility ProjectionsPanel 5: Roundtable Discussion SOA Annual Meeting 2005 Fertility Symposium 15 November 2005

  2. Presentation • Canadian Retirement System • Size and aging of Canadian population • Sensitivity tests – aging and financial impacts

  3. Canadian Retirement Income Security 123 Canadian retirement system with mixed funding approaches is well recognized in the world for its capacity to adapt rapidly to changing conditions - Full funding (RPP/RRSP) - Partial funding (CPP/QPP) - Pay-as-you-go funding (OAS/GIS)

  4. Youths, Working-age Population, and Retirees Projected 0-19 20-64 65+ 2003 (in millions) • Average annual increases: • 0-19 20-64 65+ Total • 1960-1980 +0.3% +2.1% +2.6% +1.5% • 1980-2000 +0.0% +1.4% +2.6% +1.1% • 2000-2020 –0.2% +0.8% +2.8% +0.8% • 2020-2040 +0.3% +0.1% +1.9% +0.5% By 2030, all projected population increase will come from migration.

  5. Life Expectancies Under Varying Mortality Assumptions,with mortality improvements after each year shown

  6. Life Expectancies Under Varying Mortality Assumptions,with mortality improvements after each year shown

  7. Age Structure UnderVarying Mortality Assumptions 2075 65+ Females Males 29% low mortality best- estimate 25% 24% high mortality

  8. Sensitivity Tests - Migration

  9. Age Structure UnderVarying Migration Assumptions 2030 Females Males low migration high migration best- estimate

  10. Age Structure UnderVarying Migration Assumptions 2075 Females Males 65+ 30% 22% 25% low migration high migration best- estimate

  11. Age Structure UnderVarying Fertility Assumptions 2075 Females Males 65+ 30% 22% 25% low fertility best- estimate high fertility

  12. Sensitivity of CPP Steady-State and Pay-As-You-Go Contribution Rates (%) High Low

  13. Sensitivity of CPP Steady-State and Pay-As-You-Go Contribution Rates – Relative Change from B-E (%) High Low

  14. CPP/OAS/QPP Expenditures as % of GDPUnder Varying Fertility Assumptions 1.3 Best-Estimate 1.6 1.9

  15. CPP/OAS/QPP Expenditures as % of GDPUnder Varying Mortality Assumptions Improvements 350% B-E Best-Estimate Improvements 0%

  16. CPP/OAS/QPP Expenditures as % of GDPUnder Varying Migration Assumptions 0% of population Best-Estimate 0.54% of population 1% of population

  17. Canada Pension Plan:Fertility ProjectionsPanel 5: Roundtable Discussion SOA Annual Meeting 2005 Fertility Symposium Thank you. 15 November 2005

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