Update on Multifunction Phased Array Radar (MPAR)

1. Update on Multifunction Phased Array Radar (MPAR) Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction 6 September 2007 Dr. Mark Weadon Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology SPY-1D Phased Array Radar aboardDDG-79 USS OSCAR AUSTIN

2. Overview • Background • MPAR Status • Benefits • Cost Issues • Future Efforts

3. Planar phase front Background - What is Phased Array Radar? Planar phase front Electrical added phase delay Mechanically Steered, Rotating Reflector Array Electrically Steered, Fixed Phased Array VS

4. Weather Surveillance Weather & Aircraft Surveillance Background - MPAR Program Origin • NRC Report Beyond NEXRAD (2002), recommends PAR technology be developed as replacement for legacy weather radars • In 2004, Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) directed an interagency Joint Action Group be convened to assess R&D priorities for phased array radar • Joint Action Group Report on Phased Array Radar R&D Needs and Priorities published in June 2006 (http://www.ofcm.gov/r25-mpar/fcm-r25.htm) DOC / NOAA DOD / DHS DOT / FAA Noncooperative Aircraft Surveillance SINGLE MPAR SYSTEM

5. MPAR Status • Mission • Evaluate new technology and develop the next generation MPAR network • Develop interagency management structure • Objective • Develop affordable MPAR network for improved: • Weather data for aviation safety • Numerical weather prediction (modeling) • Airport efficiency and capacity • Aircraft detection and tracking (cooperative and non-cooperative) • Natural disaster warning & response • Homeland security (toxic plumes) • Volcanic ash detection • Wildland fire smoke detection

6. Long-Range Surveillance Non-Cooperative Targets Severe Weather Weather Fronts WMD Cloud Terminal Surveillance 2000-2002 Dual-Use Science &Technology 1989 1991 1992 2000 1990 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 MPAR Status - Evolution 2000 2002 2003 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 and beyond… 2001-2005+ Nat’lWx Radar Testbed 2006 - 2010 MPAR Pre-Prototype

7. MPAR Status National Weather Radar Testbed Norman, OK BACKUP SLIDES

8. MPAR Status - Microburst Event MPAR captures 29 clear images and more data during the time it takes TDWR for 6, the result is better forecasts and earlier warnings MPAR TDWR Strong updraft indicated by weak echo region Rapid descent of high reflectivity core 19:41:12 19:44:35 19:46:51 MPAR TDWR Weak outflow in corresponding velocity field at 19:51:03 Strong outflow at 19:56:00 19:50:15 19:53:19 19:56:34

9. PAR vs. TDWR Comparison, 10 Jul 06 MPAR 90 sector Images ~ 34s TDWR Images ~ 60 s

10. TDWRs ASR-9s ARSR-4s ASR-11s MPAR Status U.S. Surveillance Radar Networks Today NEXRADs

11. MPAR Status ASR-9 ASR-11 2006: ASR-8 Define concept and R&D roadmap ARSR-1/2 ARSR-3 ARSR-4 Mid 2007-2012: NWRT Proof-of-concept tests Develop scaled prototype and critical technologies NEXRAD TDWR 2010 - 2016: Full-scale prototype &operational test Multi-Mission PAR for Tomorrow Joint Agency Group Recommendations Future Concept Today Stove-pipedApproach: Affordable MultifunctionPhased ArrayRadar (MPAR) • Sustain • PartiallyModernize • Replace Reduced number of radars Consolidated maintenance and logistics infrastructure Enhanced capabilities 510* Radars, 8 Types 334 Radars, 1 Type 5000 ft AGL, Blue, weather only *Includes Operational CONUS radar only

12. Benefits • Potential replacement for aging fleet of mechanically scanning radars over next 20 years • Allows consolidation of multiple single-mission radars into a single system, reducing national radar fleet by > 40%, saving nearly $5B over 30-year lifecycle • Provides both air and weather surveillance from a single radar site • No moving parts, lower maintenance costs • Multiple transmit/receiver components; avoids single point of failure • Scalable design of prototype will provide proof of concept for future MPAR

13. Benefits • Better weather measurements • Rapid temporal sampling; full volume scan periods < 1 minute • Eliminates data “smearing” due to rotating dish • Electronic scan can be programmed to contours of the horizon, reducing ground clutter • Adaptive dwell times/beam steering; selective target revisit in seconds rather than minutes • Split aperture correlation to estimate crossbeam wind component; 3-D vector wind fields for assimilation into NWP • Dual polarization for hydrometeor discrimination • Assimilation of high-resolution data into storm-scale weather models will permit “warn on forecast” versus “warn on observation” • Increased safety and capacity in severe weather conditions • Increased lead time for tornado warnings • Increased lead time for flood & severe weather warnings • Better initializing of national numerical weather prediction models leading to improved forecasting • Better understanding of wind structure of landfalling hurricanes

14. Benefits • Terminal & Enroute surveillance • Significant reduction in false track probability • Vertical position measurement for dedicated track modes • Very rapid track update rates in terminal area • Homeland security • Non-cooperative target tracking • Wind field mapping for dispersion models • Nuclear biological chemical (NBC) tracking…R&D needed • Wildland fires • Fine-scale wind fields in vicinity of fires • Improved tracking of wildfire particulates • Discrimination of non-meteorological hazards: volcanic ash, airborne debris, biological scatterers (bird flocks), etc.

15. Cost Issues What Drives Cost? Concept of Operations (CONOPS) Drives Operational Requirements (User Needs) Drives Performance Requirements (Characteristics) Scale Drives Radar System Architecture & Design MPAR Cost Drives

16. Cost Issues RF Solid-State T/R Module Trends Cost Estimated Production Cost ($K) per module Power System costs substantially reduced & operation costs lower every year

17. Future Efforts • Develop affordable MPAR prototype • Refine radar requirements and lay groundwork for MPAR cost/benefit analysis • Implement 9-year Research and Development Plan proposed in JAG PAR report, culminating in full prototype • Establish contacts/initiating partnerships with industry leaders in phased array technology • Coordinate agency programming for MPAR risk reduction effort: NOAA and FAA planning significant investments by 2009; DHS and DOD investments still TBD

18. Future Efforts • National Academies’ Board of Atmospheric Science and Climate enlisted to evaluate MPAR planning process to date and to make recommendations • MPAR Symposium, 10-12 October, Norman, OK, will engage federal stakeholders, academia, industry (http://www.ofcm.gov/mpar-symposium/index.htm) • MPAR WG will continue to refine user requirements -- Engage with JPDO to solidify NextGen aviation requirements • Solidify technical requirements for MPAR system: engineering trade studies to balance user needs with lowest cost • Number of independent channels (TBD) • Number of concurrent beams per channel (TBD) • Number of T/R modules per face (TBD) • Optimal scanning strategies (TBD)

19. Future Efforts Critical Technologies /Pre-Prototype Design Contract Build Technical Operational Design Contract /Build Tests Tests 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tentative Timeline for MPAR Development Full MPAR Prototype Decision Point Calendar Year

20. Questions?