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Erik.Ranheim@intertanko.com Manager Research and Projects Russian oil Export in Baltic Sea transits Stockholm 3 November 2005. Russian/CIS oil. Setting the Scene.

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slide1
Erik.Ranheim@intertanko.com

Manager Research and Projects

Russian oil Export in Baltic Sea transits

Stockholm 3 November 2005

slide3

Setting the Scene

I cannot forecast you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key? The key is Russian national interests.

Sir Winston Churchill, 1939

slide4

Setting the Scene

  • Scene 2004
      • Russian oil prevented a 3rd oil crises
      • Safety record of tankers from FSU high
      • Europe completely dependent on Russian oil

Change of Scene?

  • Scene 2005
      • Russian oil export slowing – tension in the oil market
      • Safety record continue to be excellent - no new major tanker casualties
      • Increasing oil export from special projects (Primorks (soon peaking?), Sakhalin, Northern areas) and pipelines?
      • Overinvestment in ice-classed tonnage?
slide10

Sources of European oil import 1H05 – 12.9 mbd

  • 4.4 mbd
  • (The US 0.32 mbd from FSU 1H05)
  • Source: IEA
slide12

Market effect (pipeline effect)

  • of one mbd transported various trades
slide14

Tanker incidents

  • World wide and FSU related
  • Collisions, grounding, Hull & Machinery, Fire & Explosions, others
slide16

Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05

  • tankers above 50,000 dwt

Black Sea

Baltic Sea

m dwt

m dwt

Source: Fearnleys/INTERTANKO

slide17

Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05

  • tankers above 50,000 dwt

%

Baltic Sea

%

Black Sea

Source: Fearnleys

slide18

Tanker trade by hull -1Q04-2Q05

  • tankers above 50,000 dwt

m dwt

number

Source: Fearnleys/INTERTANKO

slide19

Baltic transits18,000-50,000 dwt-2004-2Q05

Dirty cargoes

Clean cargoes

Source: Riverlake/INTERTANKO

slide20

Baltic transits18,000-50,000 dwt-2004-2Q05

  • UK Continent 343 52%
  • Continent 115 17%
  • W Africa 55 8%
  • Mediterranean 34 5%
  • UK Med 25 4%
  • UK W Africa 5 1%
  • Others 87 13%
  • Total 666 100%

Clean cargoes

Source: Riverlake/INTERTANKO

slide21

Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05

  • tankers above 50,000 dwt from Murmansk area

m tonnes

13

14

19

17

12

11

Source: Fearnleys

slide22

Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05

  • Aframax tanker – spot fixtures from Murmansk area
  • Movements 2004 53
  • Movements 2005 39
  • Movements total 92
  • Russian ships: 48 (52%)
  • Average cargo size 99,377 tonnes
  • Average tanker size 109,078dwt
  • Average age 2004 2.6 years in 2004
  • Average age 2005 4.1 years
  • All double hull tankers
  • + a limited number of small tankers carrying products (some 20/year)

Source: Riverlake

slide24

Ice Class

  • Number of Aframaxes available and needed for Primorsk trade (including 1A/1B/1C tankers)

Number

Source: Riverlake, Geneva

2003/04 addition 17 handysize tankers available

1C tankers may have problems in January/February

slide26

Conclusion

  • Slower expansion in FSU oil export, but
  • Most Russian oil goes to Europe
  • Pipelines will in medium to long term take market shares
  • Safety record very good, trade served by modern tonnage
  • Many projects – uncertainty with regard to technical, geological, commercial as well as political factors