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‘WHAT IF ..…?’

‘WHAT IF ..…?’. MANAGING THE RISKS THAT COME WITH HAVING TO MAKE DECISIONS. Gp Capt Andy Ebdon RAF. JAGUAR – LOW LEVEL IN SCOTLAND. A Loose Article in the Aircraft - Ground Cooling Door Actuator Clevis Pin. DECISION Can it fly? The rules say not, but…… Risk - Consequence – Pressure

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‘WHAT IF ..…?’

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  1. ‘WHAT IF ..…?’ MANAGING THE RISKS THAT COME WITH HAVING TO MAKE DECISIONS Gp Capt Andy Ebdon RAF

  2. JAGUAR – LOW LEVEL IN SCOTLAND

  3. A Loose Article in the Aircraft - Ground Cooling Door Actuator Clevis Pin DECISION Can it fly? The rules say not, but…… Risk - Consequence – Pressure How does a Human decide?

  4. SO WHAT IS RISK AGAIN? • Consequence • Lives • Injuries • Loss of property • Cost • Reputation • Probability • Risk Generation in Human Terms?

  5. THE HARRIER GR9 UPGRADE PROGRAMME

  6. HARRIER GR9 UPGRADE SUCCESSFUL PROJECT MANAGEMENT • Robust, sophisticated approach to Project Management Risk • Partnered working – Shared Risks • But ……… Vulnerable to Human Frailty • Losing control – and knowing it • Finding out why • A simple fix

  7. GETTING AHEAD OF THE PROBLEM • Principles not difficult • What could go wrong? • What could be the impact? • How likely is it? • But in terms of Decision Making how do you know what decisions you might have to make, what the options could be and which choices would be in error? • Just what are the risks?

  8. IDENTIFYING RISK – IS IT REALLY THAT DIFFICULT? • Research into Impact of Supervision on Human Error in Aircraft Maintenance • Expert Practitioners very keen to talk about risks • Management Pressures • Policy Changes • Distractions • Night work (Fatigue!) • Personal Characteristics • Time Pressures • But these aren’t risks!

  9. SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT COULD BE DONE • A 3 Stage Process • Training • Risk Assessment • Practice • Focussed on Decision Making • As Objective as Possible

  10. TRAINING • Aim at those likely to be called upon to make the most significant decisions. • The Nature of Human Error. • Influencing Factors – in the local context. • Decision Making.

  11. RISK ASSESSMENT • By Expert Practitioners – the Deciders. • Individually first, then as groups. • Start with Undesirable Outcomes – not Influencing Factors. • Set Parameters for Consequences and Probability. • Consider Consequences. • Consider Probability – how Vulnerable to Influencing Factors? • Grade the Risks.

  12. PRACTICE • Business Continuity Planning from a Human Perspective. • Disaster Exercises. • ‘War Gaming’ and the ‘Command Post Exercise.’ Hope for the Best – but Prepare for the Worst!

  13. QUESTIONS?

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