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Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration

Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration. NOAA/ National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 20, 2013 2000 UTC/3:00 PM EST Jim Lee Meteorologist-in-Charge. Outline. Weather Hazards Forecast Overview Forecast Tables and Graphs

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Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration

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  1. Weather BriefingforThe 2013 Presidential Inauguration NOAA/ National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 20, 2013 2000 UTC/3:00 PM EST Jim Lee Meteorologist-in-Charge

  2. Outline • Weather Hazards • Forecast Overview • Forecast Tables and Graphs • Reagan and Dulles METAR & TAF • Illumination Data • Space Weather • Plume Modeling • Web Page • Summary of Weather Hazards • Briefing Schedule NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  3. Weather Hazards2000 UTC 21 Jan – 0000 UTC 22 Jan 2013for Washington, D.C. This afternoon: Gusty west winds to 30 mph through sunset • Small Craft Advisory until 6:00 PM EST Monday: Scattered afternoon snow showers (40%) and colder; chance of snow squalls between 4:00 PM and 8:00 PM • Mostly Cloudy, highs in the lower 40s • Upper level disturbance could produce an organized band of snow squalls that could produce locally 1 inch of snow • Small Craft Advisory starts at Noon and continues through Tuesday NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  4. Forecast Overviewfor Washington, D.C. Normals: Hi: 43F Lo: 28F NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  5. Weather Element Forecastfor Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  6. Weather Element Forecastfor Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  7. KDCA METAR & TAFRonald Reagan National Airport METAR KDCA 201852Z 30016G23KT 10SM FEW250 16/M06 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP108 T01611056 $ TAF KDCA 201912Z 2019/2118 30015G25KT P6SM FEW250 FM210000 32007KT P6SM SKC FM210800 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250 FM211500 15010G20KT P6SM BKN250 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  8. KIAD METAR & TAFDulles International Airport METAR KIAD 201852Z 30020G30KT 10SM FEW050 14/M06 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 29030/1846 SLP108 T01391056 TAF KIAD 201912Z 2019/2124 30017G30KT P6SM FEW050 FM202300 32010KT P6SM SKC FM210300 32005KT P6SM SCT250 FM211600 16008KT P6SM BKN250 FM212200 20009KT P6SM BKN050 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  9. Illumination Data Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  10. Space Weather Summary/Forecast 1640 1644 1638 1641 • Summary/Forecast Details: • Region 1654 continues to decay and will begin to rotate off tomorrow • Currently quiet across S and G scales • Overall threat of significant space weather activity is low 1642 Geomagnetic Storms Solar Flare Radio Blackouts Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 20, 2013 - 2000 UTC

  11. Phenomena Reference/Impacts • Solar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale): • No advance warning • Effects lasts for 10’s of minutes to several hours • Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earth • First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible • Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale): • Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale • Elevated levels can persist for several days • Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew • Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions, affecting commercial airline operations • Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale): • Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms) • In extreme storms, impacts to power grid operations and stability • Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availability • Driver of aurora; severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the lower 48 Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 20, 2013 - 0300 UTC Complete NOAA Space Weather Scale information available online at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

  12. HYSPLIT DISPERSION MODEL 1/21/13 Release at 2200Z 21 Jan 2013 (NAM) Release at 1700Z 21 Jan 2013 (NAM) NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  13. NOAA/NWSBaltimore/Washington http://www.erh.noaa.gov/washington Always Up-to-date NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  14. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  15. Summary • Mostly clear skies overnight. • Inauguration Day: Mostly cloudy and colder with scattered afternoon snow showers, and a chance of snow squalls between 4:00 and 8:00 PM • This could produce local accumulations of snow from a dusting to less than an inch. • Monday Night: Chance of snow showers before midnight, then becoming mostly clear and cold with lows in the lower 20s and gusty northwest winds to 30 mph; wind chills in the lower teens NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  16. Briefing Schedule • T-7 days: Tue Jan 15 1500 EST • T-6 days: Wed Jan 16 1500 EST • T-4 days: Thu Jan 17 1500 EST • T-3 days: Fri Jan 18 1500 EST • T-2 days: Sat Jan 19 1500 EST • T-1.5 Day: Sat Jan 19 2200 EST • T-1 Day: Sun Jan 20 1500 EST • T-14 hours: Sun Jan 20 2200 EST • T-12 hours: Mon Jan 21 0000 EST • T-9 hours: Mon Jan 21 0300 EST • T-6 hours: Mon Jan 21 0600 EST • T-3 hours: Mon Jan 21 0900 EST • T-1 hour: Mon Jan 21 1100 EST • T+2 hour: Mon Jan 21 1400 EST • T+5 hour: Mon Jan 21 1700 EST • Other times / dates as needed or requested NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  17. Next Scheduled Briefing 0300 UTC/10:00 PM EST Mon 21 Jan 2013 Thank you for your participation! NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

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