GAP FILLING AND EXPERT ESTIMATES KATARINA MARECKOVA ROBERT WANKMUELLER - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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GAP FILLING AND EXPERT ESTIMATES KATARINA MARECKOVA ROBERT WANKMUELLER

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  1. GAP FILLING AND EXPERT ESTIMATESKATARINA MARECKOVAROBERT WANKMUELLER TFEIP Workshop 13th May 2013

  2. Level and aim of gap-filling Two different gap-fillingprocedures • ETC/ACM  automatedgap-filling on NFR levelforthe EU-27 CLRTAP inventorytobecompliantwiththereportingguidelines • EMEP/CEIP  gap-fillingand expert estimates on aggregated SNAP sectorleveltodelivercompletedatasetstothemodelers

  3. Why is gap-filling necessary • Ideally, there should be no need to gap-fill the reported inventory data • However, CLRTAP submissions contain various data gaps and from some Parties outside the EU we don’t receive any emission data at all

  4. Gap-filling of EU-27 inventories • It is the responsibility of Member States to submit full and accurate inventory data sets • The most frequent problems observed are: • Submissions are not provided for the whole time series • Emissions of some pollutants (e.g. PM2.5, the HMs and POPs) are not provided for some years • Sectoral emissions are missing and only national totals are provided for some years

  5. Gap-filling of EU-27 inventories • Regarding the EMEP Reporting Guidelines submitted emission inventories should be complete as possible • This means that some inventories of the EU member states have to be gap-filled in order to submit a "complete as possible" EU Inventory

  6. Gap-filling procedure for the EU-27 inventory • The rules for gap-filling are described in the technical paper “Proposed gap-filling procedure for the European Community LRTAP Convention emission inventory” (EEA, 2009) • The gap-fillingprocedureapplied in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 isdescribed in theEuropean Union emission inventory reports from this years

  7. Gap-filling procedure for the EU-27 inventory MS CLRTAP emission inventory submitted to CDR in 2013 and previous years Dataset not complete Dataset complete MS MM data 2013 (CRF) no gap-filling Dataset complete Dataset not complete no further gap-filling MS NEC data Dataset complete Dataset not complete no further gap-filling CLRTAP emission inventory submitted to EMEP Dataset not complete Further gap-filling procedures

  8. Gap-filling procedure for the EU-27 inventory Inventory gap-filled with officially submitted datasets year(s) missing in the middle first year(s) missing, then 5 consecutive years available interpolation extrapolation “backwards” gap, but 5 consecutive year(s) are not available or do not follow a trend (r2 < 0.6) last year(s) missing, before 5 consecutive years available extrapolation “forwards” previous or next year value used

  9. Gap-filling procedure for the EU-27 inventory • As starting point we use the most recent data reported in NFR or CRF • If NT and complete or incomplete sectoral data is available  no gap-filling • If no NT and no sectoral data is available  sectors are gap-filled first and added up to NT • If NT but no sectoral data is available  gap-filling using previous year split

  10. Gap-filling procedure for the EU-27 inventory • If data used as a base for gap-filling is NA or NO it is treated like 0 • Extrapolation is not allowed to result in negative values

  11. Gap-filling for EMEP model datasets • Despite the fact that the completeness of CLRTAP reporting is getting better from year to year there is still a lot of missing data • A big problem is, that for some countries and areas we don’t have any data at all • Nevertheless, modelers need complete spatial disaggregated datasets for the whole domain

  12. Completeness of reporting in the extended EMEP domain Full reported emissions Partly reported emissions Not reported emissions Area outside LRTAP Convention NOX, 2011

  13. Gap-filling procedure for the EMEP model datasets • Extraction of the latest available data on NFR sector level from the CEIP database • Conversion of the 117 NFR categories to 11 SNAP sectors • Import of the converted values to an Excel tool, together with „Expert Data“ from previous years and information on population and GDP

  14. Gap-filling procedure for the EMEP model datasets • Useofotherofficiallyavailabledata(NECD, UNFCCC, IIASA, MSC-W, MSC-E, ENTEC, …) • Linear extrapolationofofficiallysubmitteddataor expert data • Copyofreporteddataor expert datafrompreviousyears • Shippingemissions  IIASA/ENTEC estimates

  15. Gap-filling procedure for the EMEP model datasets • Detailed information on the gap-filling and expert estimates for each pollutant and sector you can find in the annual inventory reports or on the CEIP website in the section „Review of Inventories“

  16. Gap-filling procedure for the EMEP model datasets • For the spatial disaggregation we always use the latest available reported gridded emissions • In areas with no grid reporting we use other spatial information like population density and LPS for the distribution of emissions • More information about the gridding process you can find on the CEIP website (http://www.ceip.at/webdab-emission-database/emissions-as-used-in-emep-models)

  17. Thank you for your attention