Reframing climate change: from long-term targets to emission pathways

1. Reframing climate change: from long-term targets to emission pathways Professor Kevin AndersonDirector of the Tyndall’s Centre’s Energy Programme

2. Reframing Climate Change: From long-term targets to emission pathways Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre’s energy programme University of Manchester 17th June 2008 Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering

3. Talk outline What is dangerous climate change? Reframing the debate - cumulative emissions “It’s energy demand stupid” The critical role of aviation & shipping Responding to the challenge … the UK’s climate change bill? Revisiting the global context

4. What is dangerous climate change? • UK & EU define this as 2C • Links to total quantity of CO2 in atmosphere - measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv) • Currently 380ppmv & increasing 2-3ppmv each year - 280ppmv before industrial revolution • Still feasible to keep below 450ppmv CO2 - i.e. 70% chance of exceeding 2C 50% chance of exceeding 3C

5. What are the ‘correct’ emission targets for 2C ? • UK & EU have long term reduction targets - e.g. UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050 • But CO2 stays in atmosphere for approx. 100years • Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays & • will be added to by tomorrows • So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading

6. Put bluntly … the final % reduction in carbon has little relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change (e.g. 2C) What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon

7. How does this scientifically-credible way of thinking, alter the challenge we face?

8. A bank-account analogy • We know: .. how much money we have in the bank between 2000-2050 (the carbon budget)

9. For a 30% chance of “avoiding dangerous climate change” the UK’s budget is ~ 4.8 billion tonnes of carbonbetween 2000-2050

10. From this two questions arise • What are the emissions between 2000 & today? • What emissions are we locked into in the immediate future?

11. Answer 1 … emissions between 2000-2006 were ~1.2 billion tonnes of carbon … i.e. we’ve used ¼ of our permitted emissions for 50 years in around 6 years!

12. Answer 2 Looking at this graphically …

13. Plot data from 2000 to 2006

14. Dip due to September 11th Plot data from 2000 to 2006

15. What about the next 6 years … with more aviation & shipping

16. … emissions are likely to rise

17. But we only have 4.8 billion tonnes Carbon in the bank

18. … locking the UK into dramatic annual carbon reductions from around 2012-2032

19. ~ 9% p.a. reduction

20. … even a 550ppmv pathway has an emission reduction of ~ 6% p.a from 2015 for 2 decades

21. What does this pathway say about emission policies ?

22. most emissions are released in next 15 yrs 2006

23. demand 2006 supply & demand

24. … how does aviation fit into this?

25. 2006 11 MtC Aviation is currently 7% of UK emissions (over ½ of that from cars)

26. 2006 11 MtC • if emissions grow at 7% until 2012 • (historical mean) • reducing to 3% from 2012-2050 Aviation is currently 7% of UK emissions (over ½ of that from cars)

27. 2012 17MtC

28. 2012 2030 17MtC 28MtC

29. 2030 2012 28MtC 17MtC ~ 70% of UK emissions

30. … and a similar situation exists for shipping

31. What emissions pathway is implied by the climate change bill

33. Domestic emissions already released (ex. international aviation & shipping)

34. UK Domestic Carbon Emissions – Bill’s targets & pathways Climate Bill’s implied trajectory (though 26% by 2020) (though 32% by 2020) 60% reduction

35. UK Cumulative budget – implied by the bill Climate Bill’s implied trajectory (though 26% by 2020) Area = Cumulative carbon budget

36. UK Cumulative budget – implied by the bill Climate Bill’s implied trajectory (though 26% by 2020) Bill equates to ~ 6.0GtC(2000-2050) (ex. international aviation & shipping)

37. … adding International Aviation & Shipping UK Cumulative budget – implied by the bill Climate Bill’s implied trajectory (though 26% by 2020) Bill equates to ~ 6.0GtC(2000-2050) (ex. international aviation & shipping)

38. … adding International Aviation & Shipping ~1.5GtC

39. … adding International Aviation & Shipping ~1.5GtC i.e. With a low growth future for aviation & shipping (2000-2050)

40. Consequently, the Bill implies: • - a UK total cumulative 2000-2050 budget of ~ 7.5GtC • - an atmospheric concentration of over 650ppmv CO2 • virtual certainty of exceeding 2°C • a 50% chance of exceeding 4°C

41. … so what should a 2°C science-based climate change bill contain

42. … the bill should : • adopt cumulative emissions as basis for targets • acknowledge 2°C is much more demanding than • previously thought (~6 to 9% carbon reduction p.a.) • include aviation & shipping emissions • recognise need for immediate action on demand • (acknowledge reliance on low-carbon supply is misguided)

43. Revisiting the global context

44. Tyndall’s ‘global emission scenarios (CO2e)’ • What are the latest CO2 emission trends? • What are implications of factoring in: - land-use & forestry? - non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions? • When will global CO2e emissions peak?

45. What are the latest global CO2emission trends? ~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs ~ 3.3% p.a. in last 5 years

46. What are the latest global CO2eemission trends? ~ 2.8% p.a. since 2000 ~ Stern assumed 0.96%

47. Land-use & forestry emissions • Tyndall analysis uses • most ‘optimistic’ estimate from the literature • Tyndall very low emission scenario

48. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions • Tyndall analysis uses • Short-term EPA estimates • Tyndall optimistic scenarios up to peak emissions • Stabilisation at low-level by 2050

49. When will global CO2e emissions peak? USA - 2025 Stern - 2015 Tyndall - 2015, 2020, 2025

50. When will global CO2e emissions peak? USA - 2025 Stern - 2015 Tyndall - 2015, 2020, 2025