Professor Nancy C. Shaw

1. 1 Professor Nancy C. Shaw

2. 2 Introduction Obtaining a broad view of emerging trends and new technologies as they relate to business can help an organization anticipate and prepare for the future Organizations that can most effectively grasp the deep currents of technological evolution can use their knowledge to protect themselves against sudden and fatal technological obsolescence

3. 3 Reasons to Watch Trends Trend analysis – the examination of a trend to identify its nature, causes, speed of development, and potential impacts Trend monitoring – trends viewed as particularly important in a specific community, industry, or sector are carefully monitored, watched, and reported to key decision makers Trend projection – when numerical data is available a trend can be plotted on graph paper to display changes through time and into the future

4. 4 Reasons to Watch Trends Computer simulation – complex systems can be modeled by means of mathematical equations and different scenarios can be run against the model to determine “what if” analysis Historical analysis – the study of historical events in order to anticipate the outcome of current developments

5. 5 Reasons to Watch Trends

6. 6 Trends Shaping Our Future World’s population will double in the next 40 years Population in developed countries is living longer Growth in information industries creates a knowledge-dependent global society The global economy is becoming more integrated The economy and society are dominated by technology Pace of technological innovation is increasing Time is becoming one of the most precious commodities

7. 7 The World’s Population Will Double Over The Next 40 Years Countries expected to have the largest population increases: Palestinian Territory – 217% increase Niger – 205% Yemen – 168% Angola – 162% Democratic Republic of the Congo – 161% Uganda – 133%

8. 8 The World’s Population Will Double Over The Next 40 Years In contrast, developed and industrialized countries are expected to see fertility rates decrease below population replacement levels, leading to significant declines in population

9. 9 The World’s Population Will Double Over The Next 40 Years Potential business impact Global agriculture will be required to supply as much food as has been produced during all of human history to meet needs over the next 40 years Developed nations will find that retirees will have to remain on the job to remain competitive Developed nations will begin to increase immigration limits Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned aboveAsk your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

10. 10 Population In Developed Countries Is Living Longer On average, each generation in the United States lives three years longer than the previous An 80-year-old in 1950 could expect to live 6.5 years longer today

11. 11 Population In Developed Countries Is Living Longer Potential business impact Global demand for elderly products and services will grow quickly in the coming decades The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for advances in geriatric medicine Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

12. 12 THE GROWTH IN INFORMATION INDUSTRIES IS CREATING A KNOWLEDGE-DEPENDENT GLOBAL SOCIETY 90% of American management personnel will be knowledge workers by 2008 A typical large organization in 2010 will have fewer than half the management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the number of managers Why will organizations have fewer levels of management and fewer managers? With technology, one person can do the work of 2, 3, or 4 people a decade ago CLASSROOM EXERCISE Social Society Break your students into groups, assign them each a product from below, and have them answer the question” Why has this produced helped managers perform more work in a day than ever before? E-mail PDA Pagers and Blackberrys Fax machine Copy machine Printer Word processing The Internet SCM system CRM system ERP system Digital dashboard Determining how work was accomplished prior to these products helps students understand the relevance of technology in the business worldWhy will organizations have fewer levels of management and fewer managers? With technology, one person can do the work of 2, 3, or 4 people a decade ago CLASSROOM EXERCISE Social Society Break your students into groups, assign them each a product from below, and have them answer the question” Why has this produced helped managers perform more work in a day than ever before? E-mail PDA Pagers and Blackberrys Fax machine Copy machine Printer Word processing The Internet SCM system CRM system ERP system Digital dashboard Determining how work was accomplished prior to these products helps students understand the relevance of technology in the business world

13. 13 The Growth In Information Industries Is Creating A Knowledge-dependent Global Society Potential business impact Top managers must be computer-literate to retain their jobs and achieve success Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and their proliferation is increasing overall prosperity Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a growing level of education Information now flows from front-office workers to higher management for analysis Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization, outsourcing, and layoffs will continue Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

14. 14 The Global Economy Is Becoming More Integrated International outsourcing is on the rise The European Union has relaxed its borders and capital controls Internet users numbered about 500 million worldwide in 2003, Internet users are growing by 6% monthly

15. 15 The Global Economy Is Becoming More Integrated Potential business impact Demand for personnel in distant countries will increase the need for foreign language training and employee incentives suited to other cultures E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing business The Internet will allow small companies to compete with worldwide giants with relatively little investment Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

16. 16 The Economy And Society Are Dominated By Technology Computers are becoming a part of our environment By 2007, artificial intelligence and expert systems will help most companies and government agencies assimilate data and solve problems beyond the range of today’s computers Personal robots will appear in the home by 2010

17. 17 The Economy And Society Are Dominated By Technology Potential business impact New technologies provide dozens of new opportunities to create businesses and jobs Automation will continue to decrease the cost of products and services, making it possible to reduce prices while improving profits Demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians will continue to grow Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

18. 18 Pace Of Technological Innovation Is Increasing Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years 50% of what students learn in their freshman year of college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted by their senior year All of today’s technical knowledge will represent only 1 percent of the knowledge that will be available in 2050

19. 19 Pace Of Technological Innovation Is Increasing Potential business impact Shortened time-to-market for products and services Tighter competition based on new technologies Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

20. 20 Time Is Becoming One Of The World’s Most Precious Commodities U.S. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they did a decade ago European executives and nonunionized workers face the same trend This high-pressured environment is increasing the need for any product or service that saves time or simplifies life

21. 21 Time Is Becoming One Of The World’s Most Precious Commodities Potential business impact Companies must take an active role in helping their employees balance their work and lives Stress-related problems affecting employee morale and wellness will continue to grow Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the time to perform activities, such as shopping at a mall, evaporates Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

22. 22 Technologies Shaping Our Future Digital ink Digital paper Radio frequency identification (RFID) Teleliving Alternative energy sources Autonomic computing

23. 23 Digital ink (or electronic ink) refers to technology that digitally represents handwriting in its natural form

24. 24 Digital Ink Potential business impact Digital ink can be used in many applications: Point-of-sale signs Next generation displays in mobile devices and PDAs Thin, portable electronic books and newspapers RadioPaper – dynamic high-resolution electronic display that combines a paperlike reading experience with the ability to access information anytime, anywhere Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

25. DIGITAL PAPER Digital paper (or electronic paper) – any paper that is optimized for any type of digital printing The major difference between paper produced from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that information on a digital paper sheet can be altered thousands of times and not degrade over time How will digital paper affect students in the future? One notebook for your entire college career How will digital paper affect a company like Georgia-Pacific that specializes in paper products? This is direct competition Georgia-Pacific is focusing more on specialty paper such as resume paperHow will digital paper affect students in the future? One notebook for your entire college career How will digital paper affect a company like Georgia-Pacific that specializes in paper products? This is direct competition Georgia-Pacific is focusing more on specialty paper such as resume paper

26. Digital Paper Potential business impact Paperlike displays will replace newspapers, magazines, and books Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea Brainstorm additional business impacts not mentioned above CLASSROOM EXERCISE Flying Digital www.flypentop.com (Making Business Decisions Question 6 covers the Fly) Have your students visit the flytop pen computer site and answer the following questions: How can the translator be used in business? How can the calculator be used in business? How can the music be used in business? How can the scheduler be used in business? The Fly Pentop Computer offers numerous business functions. The translator can be used to translate documents and work with global partners. The calculator can be used by all workers. Having the pen store key customer information or key product information could be useful to sales and marketing personnel. The potential to use this type of technology is business is limitless.Brainstorm additional business impacts not mentioned above CLASSROOM EXERCISE Flying Digital www.flypentop.com (Making Business Decisions Question 6 covers the Fly) Have your students visit the flytop pen computer site and answer the following questions: How can the translator be used in business? How can the calculator be used in business? How can the music be used in business? How can the scheduler be used in business? The Fly Pentop Computer offers numerous business functions. The translator can be used to translate documents and work with global partners. The calculator can be used by all workers. Having the pen store key customer information or key product information could be useful to sales and marketing personnel. The potential to use this type of technology is business is limitless.

27. 27 Teleliving Teleliving – refers to using information devices and the Internet to conduct all aspects of life seamlessly Includes shopping, working, learning, playing, healing, and even praying Each year, four billion chips are embedded in everything from coffee makers to Cadillacs

28. 28 Teleliving Potential business impact In the future, people will move through a constant stream of information summoned at the touch of a finger Virtual assistant (VA) – a small program stored on a PC or portable device that monitors e-mails, faxes, messages, and phone calls. VAs will mimic real assistants helping individuals solve problems Robotic salespeople will take on human appearances and perform all tasks associated with a sales job Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

29. 29 Alternative Energy Sources Wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent of all energy use By 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16% of Russia and eastern Europe’s energy

30. 30 Alternative Energy Sources Potential business impact China, Asia, India, South America, and Russia are modernizing their economies, which increases their needs for energy Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to increase innovation and foster a wide variety of new energy sources Oil will remain the world’s most important energy source Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

31. 31 Autonomic Computing A self-managing computing model named after, and patterned on, the human body’s autonomic nervous system

32. 32 Autonomic computing Potential business impact Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT infrastructures for security, storage, network management, and redundancy/failover Computers will monitor components and fine-tune workflows Autonomic computers will be able to “self-heal” Autonomic computers will be able to “self-protect” Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above Ask your students to brainstorm additional potential business impacts not mentioned above

33. 33 So….. Who is in charge of your life? You Or Technology?