European job mobility Day Brussels, 16 November 2010

1. European job mobility DayBrussels, 16 November 2010 Return migration The case of Hungary Ágnes Hárs, Kopint-Tárki Budapest

2. Hungarians’ emigration potential, as well as real emigration is not very high - around 2% of the total emigrants of new member states (EU LFS) - around 1% of the Hungarian employed population (HU LFS) • Main destination preference stable: Austria, Germany and recently the UK & other EU (on increase) • Previous research proved the circular character of migration (Sik, Hárs). • Hypothesis: emigration more intensive at the time when migration in large stopped, in the beginning of the crisis (HU LFS).  strongpush effects (shock) increasing U & economic restrictions (social benefit etc.) due to economic situation (prior the crisis – contra-cyclical) (Trend is similar to the EU2 (with strong push effects)and different to the main trend of the EU 10) • Data problem: adequacy of data; data sources and sample size in case of survey data limit the profoundness of the analysis (limited emigration  limited evidence ) Data sources: emigration:HU LFS, return migration HU LFS, E301 formula

3. Main character of emigration • 3/4 of emigrants are men (HU LFS) • Age structure: Austria, Germany: mostly of best working age; UK: mostly under 30 (HU LFS) • Preference of shorter periods (months or year) of labour migration (migration potential survey)

4. Labour emigration by qualification In sum, labour migration from Hungary has a definite character with • a traditional migration of skilled and semi skilled labourer to the traditional migration destinations (Austria & Germany) • an emerging new migration pattern to the new destinations with more qualified migrants who take jobs were they are overqualified. (UK & other EU 15)

5. Basic data • Significant share of labour migrants return home (number and share of the returnees increased during the crisis while emigration was increasing as well) • Emigrants –underestimated (LFS coverage) • Returnees - underestimated - no data on those who found a job • Share of returnee unemployed increased, from 1% to over 2% of total national U

6. Hungarian labour migrants & returnees (without new job) by education level, 2008-2010 Q2, % • There is not much difference between the emigrants and returnees structure by age and sex. • Difference is definite, however, by skills. • Returnees with lower education (ISCED 0-2) are more likely without job. • Others might be more successful abroad or at home. • In the period of the crisis the difference became smaller • while the total share of emigrants with higher level of education increased. Reference period without job: since 2007 vs. 2008 October for 2008 vs. 2009 and 2007 vs. 2008 October for the 2009 Q2 vs 2010 Q2 data Source HU LFS

7. Hungarian labour migrants & returnees (without new job) by occupation abroad, 2008-2010 Q2, % • The most successful seem to be those who had non-manual jobs abroad. They hardly experience a period without work following employment abroad • while those who were taking unskilled jobs are more likely without job on the local or emigrant labour market Reference period without job: since 2007 vs. 2008 October for 2008 vs 2009 and 2007 vs 2008 October for the 2009 Q2 vs 2010 Q2 data Source HU LFS

8. Hungarian labour migrants & returnees (without new job)by main destinations, 2008-2010 Q 2, % • Difference between emigrants and returnees (without job) by the destination country is considerable. • The main destination country is Austria but • share of returnees (without job) from Austria is much behind the share in the stock of emigrants. • Share of returnees from Germany, on the other hand, outnumber the share of the emigrants. • Share of returnees from the new destinations (UK etc.) is also higher than the stock of emigrants. Reference period without job: since 2007 vs. 2008 October for 2008 vs. 2009 and 2007 vs 2008 October for the 2009 Q2 vs 2010 Q2 data Source HU LFS

9. Employment spells of Hungarians returnees,based on E 301 form, ending of spells 1.1.2008-30.6.2010, cases of spells • LFS data are insufficient to follow the individuals’ migration steps. • Based on administrative data source of E 301 form employment spells of those persons who have spent some work experience abroad can be followed. • Data refer to more or less similar population the LFS survey data covered as returnees (without new jobs). • Employment spells are not very long. Most of the employment spells that have been finished between 1.1. 2008 – 30.06.2010 were concentrated in this period. • Long employment spells were rare. Source: E 301 form database, Hungarian National Employment Service The E301 form is a certificate showing periods of social insurance for the purpose of claiming unemployment benefit in another country covered by EC

10. Summary • Hungarian labour emigration is on increase following a period of relatively low migration inclination and experience. • Hungary has a traditional migration orientation to Austria and Germany, • new pattern of migration to the UK and other EU 15 destination is on increase. • Structure of the two migration patterns have clear difference; increase of labour migration from Hungary is mostly coinciding with opening to new destination regions and with an increase of new pattern of migration; that is migrants with higher qualification, at a young age over-qualified to the jobs taken, etc. • Hungarian labour emigration is increasing in a period when mainly return migration is on increase, due to the effects of the crisis. • Signs of return migration are evident; • return migration is stronger from the new destination countries.