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Minnesota Dairy Outlook 2014: Key Statistics and Market Predictions

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In this comprehensive analysis of Minnesota's dairy industry, Dr. Marin Bozic presents a detailed comparison of dairy statistics from 2013 and 2012, highlighting significant trends in herd size, Class I utilization, and fluid milk sales, which are projected to decline by 1.5 billion lbs in 2013. The dramatic rise in Greek yogurt production, along with insights into dairy exports and price forecasts, offers a snapshot of market conditions. With noted risks in feed costs and a potential rebound in milk production, this report assists stakeholders in understanding current challenges and opportunities.

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Minnesota Dairy Outlook 2014: Key Statistics and Market Predictions

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  1. Dairy Outlook 2014 Dr. Marin Bozic

  2. Minnesota Dairy Statistics: 2013 vs. 2012

  3. In Focus: Minnesota Dairy Herds By Size

  4. FMMO 30 Dairy Statistics: 2013 vs. 2012

  5. Class I Utilization Across Time and Space

  6. Commercial Disappearance

  7. Dairy Sales: Fluid Milk Fluid Milk Sales in 2013 projected 1.5 billion lbs (2.8%) lower than in 2012.

  8. In Focus: Greek Yogurt • Greek yogurt volume up 49.5% vs 2012. • Greek yogurt market share 31%, up from 22.5% last year. • Drinkable Yogurts up 10% over 2012. • The number of new drinkable yogurt product • introductions increased from 31 in 2011 to 115 in 2012. Source: DMI, Multi-Outlet Retail Milk, Cheese and Yogurt Sales Snapshots, September, 2013

  9. Dairy Exports • Dairy exports equivalent to 58 days of U.S. milk production. • Dairy exports keep 1.4 million U.S. cows busy throughout the year.

  10. New Zealand Drought Propelled U.S. Dairy Exports

  11. New Zealand Drought Propelled U.S. Dairy Exports Source: USDEC Dairy Outlook 2014

  12. New Zealand Production Shocks  U.S. Dairy Exports Risks

  13. Feed Costs On the Decline

  14. 20+ Percent Chance Corn Will Fall Below $4.00/bu

  15. Milk Production To Rebound

  16. Milk Production To Rebound Source: USDEC Dairy Outlook 2014

  17. Class III milk price 50-75 cents lower, with a chance of meatballs

  18. Forward Income over Feed Costs Margins Look Excellent

  19. China Imports will either Make or Break the Market in 2014 Source: USDEC Dairy Outlook 2014

  20. Market Still Expected to Be Tight Source: USDEC Dairy Outlook 2014

  21. What does this all mean for Minnesota? My forecast is for 2014 Minnesota mailbox milk price to be $19.10, with more downside risk than upside potential - with 80% confidence I predict it will be between $17.00 and $20.00.

  22. U.S. Dairy Policy Outlook The Critical Two Questions: For Democrats: Is No Deal better than Raw Deal? For Republicans: Can they get more after the elections?

  23. Dairy Outlook 2014 Midwest Dairy Expo St Cloud, MN December 4, 2013 Dr. Marin Bozic mbozic@umn.edu Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota-Twin Cities 317c Ruttan Hall 1994 Buford Avenue St Paul, MN 55108 Photo Credits: Title Slide: Orange Patch Dairy, Sleepy Eye, MN Credits Slide: Zweber Family Farms, Elko, MN

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