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Sydney Self-Knowledge Through Numbers: Significant Outliers

Explore the impact of outliers in self-knowledge through data analysis and personal observations. This article covers identifying outliers, the convergence of coincidences, and practical examples of outlier events impacting daily life. Learn how outliers can lead to insights and challenges in self-experimentation. Discover the benefits and drawbacks of tracking significant outliers for self-discovery and understanding.

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Sydney Self-Knowledge Through Numbers: Significant Outliers

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  1. Sydney Self-knowledge through numbers

  2. Significant Outliers How much can one data point inform? By Bo Li

  3. The default method • The scientific method most of us will be familiar with. • Aims to maximize accuracy • Make informed hypothesis • Design experiment to test • Analyse and adjust if necessary

  4. Peripheral Observation • Novel experiences besides those intended to be measured. • Concordant • Weight loss • Less mental fog • Discordant • Improved productivity • Feeling sleepy earlier • Jaw tension

  5. Relevant xkcd

  6. Enter Outliers • An observation that lies outside normal experience. • Generally inadequately accounted for by conventional measures of significance. • ‘One perfect day’ • ‘Turkey problem’

  7. Convergence of coincidences • A single outlier generally only indicates ‘weak’ associations. • Prone to false positives but useful as starting point. • Zero frequency • Convergent events

  8. Ex1: Stomach cramps • Hereditary condition causing painful cramps and gastrointestinal upset. • Irregular av.~1/month in frequency • Last experienced 04/03/12 Unknown 2012

  9. Ex2: Emwave • Device measuring HRV. • Subjective feeling of being ‘calmer’ and more present. • Two outliers: felt fine, but could not get device to turn green. • Next day spent fixing/scraping code due to glaring errors.

  10. Ex3: Mystery rash • May-12 development of a bad rash in the small of the back. • Tried balm, extra padding, change chair, etc • Rash went away. • Jun-13 Shortly after moving workstations, had relapse. • Change of chair as common element.

  11. Method summary • Track events outside normal experience and recurrent, unusual events. • Conduct self-experiments as normal. • Build associations between experiments and observations. • Strength of association determined by degree of changed experience.

  12. Benefits and Drawbacks • Very little effort spent to log. • Does not require a priori hypothesis. • Less time needed for results. • Ability to find meaning in fairly trivial or transient events. • Visceral rather than abstract associations. • Misses slight incremental improvements. • Lacks rigour

  13. Questions?

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