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Post-Election Analysis 2014: Belgian Electoral System and Political Landscape

Dive into the Belgian electoral system post May 25, 2014, exploring federal, regional, and European results, the PR system, coalition dynamics, and implications for parties like N-VA and PS.

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Post-Election Analysis 2014: Belgian Electoral System and Political Landscape

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  1. ELECTIONS MAY 25 2014THE DAY AFTER Kris Deschouwer

  2. CONTENT • 1. THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM • 2. THE FEDERAL LEVEL • 3. THE FLEMISH RESULTS • 4. THE EUROPEAN LEVEL

  3. ELECTORAL SYSTEM • AT ALL LEVELS A LIST PR SYSTEM • PROVINCIAL DISTRICTS FOR FEDERAL AND REGIONAL • SEATS BASED ON POPULATION • BRUSSELS SEATS ALSO IN FLEMISH PARLIAMENT • DISTRICT PER LANGUAGE GROUP FOR EUROPE • SEATS BASED ON POPULATION AND POLITICAL AGREEMENT (12 + 8 + 1) • D’HONDT DIVISORS TO DISTRIBUTE SEATS • 5% THRESHOLD PER PROVINCE • VOTING IS COMPULSORY

  4. ELECTING PERSONS • MIXED SYSTEM WITH BITH PARTY AND PREFERENCE VOTES • ELECTIONS BASED ON COMBINATION OF BOTH VOTES (WITH IST VOTES HALF AS IMPORTANT)

  5. FEDERAL ELECTIONS • FOR PARTI SOCIALISTE (DI RUPO): EFFECT OF GOVERNING / CHALLENGE OF EXTREME LEFT • FOR GOVERNING PARTIES IN FLANDERS: WHAT AFTER GOVERNING WITHOUT FLEMISH MAJORITY? • FOR N-VA: BECOMING LARGE ENOUGH TO CHANGE COALITION

  6. RESULTS IN FLANDERS

  7. RESULTS IN WALLONIA AND BRUSSELS

  8. SEATS IN FEDERAL HOUSE

  9. REGIONAL LEVEL • OUTGOING COALITION BUILT IN 2009 WITH CD&V, SP.a AND N-VA (AS THEN JUNIOR PARTNER) • OUTGOING PM PEETERS KEEN ON KEEPING HIS POSITION • EXPECTATION OF STRONG GAINS FOR N-VA

  10. FLEMISH PARLIAMENT

  11. VOTES FLEMISH PARLIAMENT

  12. SEATS FLEMISH PARLIAMENT

  13. TREND: REGIONALISM

  14. DIFFERENCE FL - WALL

  15. EUROPEAN ELECTIONS • LIMITED IMPORTANCE IN CAMPAIGN • OTHER LEVELS MORE SALIENT • NO STRONG EUROSCEPTICISM • INTERESTING: VERHOFSTADT AS ‘SPITZENKANDIDAT’

  16. EP : FLEMISH CONSTITUENCY

  17. EP : FRANCOPHONE VOTES

  18. EP: SEATS

  19. SOURCES • ALL RESULTS CAN BE FOUND AT • http://polling2014.belgium.be/en/index.html

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