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A Clear and Present Danger to the Caribbean: Climate Change or Climate Alarmism? Reynold J. Stone Department of Food P PowerPoint Presentation
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A Clear and Present Danger to the Caribbean: Climate Change or Climate Alarmism? Reynold J. Stone Department of Food Production. Warming Trend. Percent of Days Tmax > 90 th Percentile. Percent of Days Tmax > 90 th Percentile.

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slide1

A Clear and Present Danger

to the Caribbean:

Climate Change or Climate Alarmism?

Reynold J. Stone

Department of Food Production

wilks d s 1995 statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences academic press san diego
Wilks, D.S. 1995. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, San Diego.
  • It is not sufficient to blindly feed data to a computer regression package and uncritically accept the results. Some of the results can be misleading if the assumptions underlying the computations are not satisfied. Since the assumptions pertain to residuals, it is important to examine the residuals for consistency with the assumptions made about their behaviour.
assumptions of ols regression
Assumptions of OLS Regression
  • Linearity
  • Homoscedasticity
  • Independence
  • Normality
  • Outliers
conclusion 1
Conclusion #1
  • The claim of an increasing linear trend in the percent of warm days in the Caribbean during 1958 -1999 has no valid statistical basis, is erroneous and misleading.
conclusion 2
Conclusion #2
  • Climate scientists must exercise greater care in their statistical analyses to avoid contributing to climate alarmism with erroneous and misleading conclusions.