Water Resources in a Changing Climate: NSF ESPCoR VI. Hydroclimatology V. Sridhar, Xin Jin, David Hoekema, Sumathy Sinnathamby, Muluken Muche R. Allen, Wenguang Zhao M. Germino. Background and Context. Region-wide warming Precipitation change Decline of snowpack
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V. Sridhar, Xin Jin, David Hoekema, Sumathy Sinnathamby, Muluken Muche
R. Allen, Wenguang Zhao
Rates and durations of ET fluxes from desert systems?
Changes in infiltration patterns for precipitation?
Interactions of ET, infiltration, thermal profiles and microbial populations and feedbacks?
Erosion and Sedimentation in Tributaries of the Snake and Salmon basins?
Hydroclimate Bio Interactions
Surface Energy Balance Processes----Large aperture scintillometer--transmitter (left) and 3 intercompared receivers (right) purchased by Idaho EPSCoR RII
Sage brush ecosystem located west of Hollister, Idaho.
Macks Inn Area
ET = Rn – G – H
Net radiation, Rn, and soil heat flux, G, must be measured
All error in Rn, G and H transfer into ET
Choose parameters to be calibrated. In this study, 7 parameters were chosen recommendation
Divide the range of each parameter into equal space
Run VIC and routing with one parameter changed and the others unchanged. Obtaining new RMSE.
Choose observation locations to be used as reference. In this study, 6 locations were chosen
Calculate sensitivity for each observation yi (i=1,…,n) over each parameter bj (j=1,…,p).
Divide the Snake River Basin into 6 sub-basins and select the new set of parameters that make the RMSE minimum and apply it to the VIC
Construct nxp Jacobian matrix and calculate CSSj
Identify the most sensitive parameters (with the biggest CSSj)
Preliminary VIC model calibration & Flowchart for sensitivity analysis
VIC model validation results (all 6 locations, 1979 - 2005)
Default calibrated from University of Washington
Snowmelt and snow formation parameter
Ground water parameter
Surface Runoff parameter
Salmon River watershed
Decreasing trend in monthly discharges
Average annual flow (cms)
Average annual flow (cms)
Snake River watershed
Mean Monthly flow (cms)
Points of interest were chosen from which projected flows could be distributed to simulate upstream reach gain contributions. As represented in the chart below, we selected six points of interest that cover 90% of the flow in the upper SRB.
The first step of the reach gain simulation method is to categorize flow based on a range of historic annual natural flows. The equations for calculating natural flow from IDWR historic reach gains are presented here.
Flow categorization is based on annual flows while simulation of these flows are based on monthly distributions of the projected flow. Along the Henry’s Fork flows are categorized with a range of 300,000 acre-feet per category.
Flow Range per Category: 3000 (100 acre-feet)
A comparison between SRPM calculated irrigation shortages as represented by historic and simulated reach gains reveals that the reach gain simulation method was able to provide perfect replication of historic irrigation shortages in the river between the years 1980 and 2005.
Black Canyon Dam
Run VIC model to generate the infiltration, evapotransporation (ET), runoff and baseflow at each cell of unsaturated zone
Run MODFLOW and generate recharge, water content
Add a fraction of recharge from MODFLOW the baseflow in VIC output
Run VIC routing model
Reaching time step limit