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Water Resources in a Changing Climate: NSF ESPCoR VI. Hydroclimatology V. Sridhar, Xin Jin, David Hoekema, Sumathy Sinnathamby, Muluken Muche R. Allen, Wenguang Zhao M. Germino. Background and Context. Region-wide warming Precipitation change Decline of snowpack

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water resources in a changing climate nsf espcor vi

Water Resources in a Changing Climate: NSF ESPCoR VI

Hydroclimatology

V. Sridhar, Xin Jin, David Hoekema, Sumathy Sinnathamby, Muluken Muche

R. Allen, Wenguang Zhao

M. Germino

background and context
Background and Context
  • Region-wide warming
  • Precipitation change
  • Decline of snowpack
  • Earlier spring runoff and
  • Decline in summer streamflow trends
research questions
Research Questions
  • How will future climate change impact water resources?
    • Hydro - Climate
    • Hydro - Economic / Policy
    • Hydro - Ecology
research questions4
Research Questions
  • Hydro-climate interactions
    • What are the relationships between climate change, vegetation, snow pack, and the resulting stream flows in managed and unmanaged river systems?
    • How will aquifer systems exchange with surface and groundwater under various climate change scenarios?
    • What will both the supply and demand on water be in these systems under various climate change scenarios?
slide5
How will fire and invasive species (cheat grass, some bunchgrasses) impact:

Rates and durations of ET fluxes from desert systems?

Changes in infiltration patterns for precipitation?

Interactions of ET, infiltration, thermal profiles and microbial populations and feedbacks?

Erosion and Sedimentation in Tributaries of the Snake and Salmon basins?

Hydroclimate Bio Interactions

focus area 2009 2011
Focus Area 2009-2011
  • Research 1: Advance our ability to model surface energy balance processes
  • Tasks: Use of scintillometer and eddy covariance (EC) systems to measure sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat fluxes in desert and timber
  • Research 2:Advancement in Basin scale Hydrologic Forecasting – verification and operation under climate change scenarios
  • Task1 : Operate, test and calibrate the CIG Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and combine with the groundwater model
  • Task2: Implement VIC –groundwater model and evaluate the reservoir optimization techniques
scintillometry
Scintillometry
  • Use to Retrieve Sensible Heat Flux (H) over large, integrated transects
  • Use to improve components in METRIC and VIC
    • Reduce variances
  • Use to derive ET experimentally
    • Determine how soil water meters out from desert and lodgepole
slide8

Scintillometers to measure surface heat flux densities

Transmitter

Receiver

Surface Energy Balance Processes----Large aperture scintillometer--transmitter (left) and 3 intercompared receivers (right) purchased by Idaho EPSCoR RII

scintillometer idaho rii deployments
Scintillometer – Idaho RII Deployments
  • Three systems (BSU, ISU, UI)
  • Three deployments
    • Sage brush -- Snake River Plain
    • Cheat grass or recent burn – Snake River Plain
    • Timber – Upper Reaches
idaho rii sagebrush deployment
Idaho RII: Sagebrush Deployment

Sage brush ecosystem located west of Hollister, Idaho.

slide13
Scintillometers measure only Sensible Heat flux (H)ET is calculated as a residual of the energy balance

ET = Rn – G – H

Net radiation, Rn, and soil heat flux, G, must be measured

All error in Rn, G and H transfer into ET

slide14

Choose parameters to be calibrated. In this study, 7 parameters were chosen recommendation

Divide the range of each parameter into equal space

Run VIC and routing with one parameter changed and the others unchanged. Obtaining new RMSE.

Choose observation locations to be used as reference. In this study, 6 locations were chosen

Calculate sensitivity for each observation yi (i=1,…,n) over each parameter bj (j=1,…,p).

Divide the Snake River Basin into 6 sub-basins and select the new set of parameters that make the RMSE minimum and apply it to the VIC

Construct nxp Jacobian matrix and calculate CSSj

Identify the most sensitive parameters (with the biggest CSSj)

end

Preliminary VIC model calibration & Flowchart for sensitivity analysis

  • Ws fraction of maximum soil moisture where non-linear baseflow occurs
slide15

VIC model calibration results (all 6 locations, 1928 - 1978)

VIC model validation results (all 6 locations, 1979 - 2005)

slide16

VIC model calibration results (at Heise)

Default calibrated from University of Washington

calibrated

parameter selection for the swat model
Parameter Selection for the SWAT Model

Snowmelt and snow formation parameter

Ground water parameter

Soil parameter

Surface Runoff parameter

slide21

Snake River watershed

Salmon River watershed

Decreasing trend in monthly discharges

slide22

White bird

Yellowpine

Krassel Ranger

A1b

A1b

A1b

Average annual flow (cms)

A2

A2

A2

B1

B1

B1

ECHAM

GISS

IPSL

slide23

Milner

Oxbow

A1b

A1b

ECHAM

Average annual flow (cms)

GISS

IPSL

A2

A2

B1

B1

slide24

Milner

Oxbow

A1b

A1b

Snake River watershed

Mean Monthly flow (cms)

A2

A2

B1

B1

slide28

Flow Distribution & Points of Interest (POI)

Points of interest were chosen from which projected flows could be distributed to simulate upstream reach gain contributions. As represented in the chart below, we selected six points of interest that cover 90% of the flow in the upper SRB.

  • Six Points of Interest
    • Heise (Snake River)
    • Rexburg (Henry’s Fork)
    • Milner (Snake River)
    • Parma (Boise River)
    • Payette (Payette River)
    • Oxbow (Snake River)
    • 58%
    • +32%
    • 90 % Total
slide29

Reach Gain Simulation Calculations

  • Monthly Natural flow (sum of upstream reaches)
    • Where,
    • NFm = monthly natural flow at reach d
    • d = downstream reach (or point of interest)
    • u = furthest upstream reach
    • xi = any given reach between u and d
  • Annual Natural Flow (sum of monthly Natural Flows)
    • Where, NFm,1 = natural monthly flow in October, NFM,2 = natural monthly flow in November….

The first step of the reach gain simulation method is to categorize flow based on a range of historic annual natural flows. The equations for calculating natural flow from IDWR historic reach gains are presented here.

flow categorization henry s fork
Flow Categorization Henry’s Fork

Flow categorization is based on annual flows while simulation of these flows are based on monthly distributions of the projected flow. Along the Henry’s Fork flows are categorized with a range of 300,000 acre-feet per category.

Flow Range per Category: 3000 (100 acre-feet)

Minimum: 13678

Maximum: 40697

Mean: 24768

irrigation shortage comparison historic vs simulated 1980 2005
Irrigation Shortage Comparison: Historic vs. Simulated (1980-2005)

A comparison between SRPM calculated irrigation shortages as represented by historic and simulated reach gains reveals that the reach gain simulation method was able to provide perfect replication of historic irrigation shortages in the river between the years 1980 and 2005.

slide34

Payette Watershed-Future Climate: Echam-5

Deadwood Dam

Cascade Dam

Black Canyon Dam

slide38

Run VIC model to generate the infiltration, evapotransporation (ET), runoff and baseflow at each cell of unsaturated zone

Infiltration, ET

Water content

Run MODFLOW and generate recharge, water content

Add a fraction of recharge from MODFLOW the baseflow in VIC output

Run VIC routing model

No

Reaching time step limit

Yes

Stop

VIC+MODFLOW flowchart