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Perspectives and possibilities in the power market Norwegian Nordic Power Market. Ole Gabrielsen. Present situation. Balanced power market Balanced : supply ≈ demand Dominated by hydro and nuclear ( appr 90 %) Norwegian supply : 85-140 TWh / year

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Presentation Transcript
present situation
Present situation
  • Balancedpower market
    • Balanced: supply ≈ demand
    • Dominated by hydro and nuclear (appr 90 %)
      • Norwegian supply: 85-140 TWh/year
    • Rathergoodinterconnection-capacity
    • Short term: weatherthe most important price-driver
      • temperature, precipitation and wind
    • Long term trend: decliningprices
  • «Grey» Europe influencesthe Nordic market
    • Thermalproductioncost (coal) decisive for Nordic powerprices !
      • Coalfiredpower plants and interconnections «balance» the Nordic Power market
      • Price collapse in emissions has decimatedalso Nordic powerprices
supply
Supply
  • Swedish-Norwegian market for el-certifikates
    • To meetEU’sdemandfor 67,5 % renewables (of total energyconsumption) within 2020
    • Goal: 26 TWh(10 % of present supply) newrenewableswithin 2020
      • Norwegian investments : appr 50 billion mrdr NOK
      • Pressure in thevendor market
    • Sponsored by theconsumers
      • All consumersobliged to buycertificates
    • Project income: power + certificates
    • The priceofcertificates have to be highenough to realizetheneededinvestments
  • New nuclearpower plant in Finland 2016 : 13 TWh
  • Extensionofcapacity in existingSwedishnuclears

+15 %

demand
Demand
  • Demand: status quo (+)
    • Considerabledecline in industrialcomsumptionafterfinancalcrisis 2008
      • 15 % decline in Norwegian power intensive industry
      • Shutdownsofcapacity in Swedish / Finnish paper and pulp industry
        • Still ongoing (Sødra, Stora Enso)
    • Politicalpressure for reducedconsumptionofelectricity
      • Buildingregulations: reluctant to electricheating
      • Energy efficienicy :EU-goal 20 % improvementwithin 2020
    • Upsides
      • Growth in population, electrificationoftransportationand off-shore, newindustry
energy balance
Energy balance
  • How largesurplus ?

NB: Prisavhengig produksjon (kull/gass) kommer i tillegg

NB: Pricedependent supply (coal/gas) in addition

how to utilize the surplus 25 50 twh or 10 20
How to utilizethesurplus(25-50 TWh or 10-20 %) ?
  • Pressureonpowerprices
    • More volatile prices
      • Renewables not regulated !
  • El-vehicles: good, butminorimpact
    • 50 % of Norwegian vehicleselectrical = 3,5 TWh
  • Electrification offshore: good, butminorimpact
    • Utsira-høyden = 3 TWh
  • New powerintensive industry: good, butminorimpact
    • (Hydro Karmøy= 3 TWh)
    • Favourablepowerpricessufficient ?
  • Interconnectors: to come, buthowmany and how fast ?
    • Interconnectors more exchangethanexport
      • Exportca 60 % ofcapacity
opportunities for norway
Opportunities for Norway
  • Norway: Green Battery for Europe
  • «Renewable -Europe» needbalancingpower
    • Norway canassist theunpredictablewind and solar
    • Norway withitshydro has theability, but dependent of more interconnectors
  • Installedcapacity in Norway is sufficient to offer balancingpower and potentialto invest in more capacity
    • Extension in existingpowerstations
    • New pump storagefacilities
    • Realistic potensial: another 10.000 MW
interconnectors is the key
Interconnectors is thekey
  • Do Norway catchthepossibility ?
    • Plannedinterconnectors
      • Ambitionsarereduced from 4 to 2 newinterconnectors
      • Germany 2018
      • UK 2020
      • Afterthat ??
    • Long lasting project planning (10 years)
    • Monopoly for theGowernment
      • New legislation: Only Statnett is allowed to take part in interconnectors
    • Acceptable business models ?
      • One owneroftheinterconnector – anotherownerofthecapacity
    • EU in favourof spot to spot- exchange
    • Limited timeframe: How longwill Europe wait for Norway ?

2020

2016

2018

??