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Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling. Marc Parisien 1 , Victor Kafka 2 , Bernie Todd 1 , Kelvin Hirsch 1 , and Suzanne Lavoie 1 1 Canadian Forest Service 2 Parks Canada Agency. Introduction. Increasing knowledge of factors affecting landscape flammability

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Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Marc Parisien1, Victor Kafka2, Bernie Todd1, Kelvin Hirsch1, and

Suzanne Lavoie1

1Canadian Forest Service

2Parks Canada Agency


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Introduction modeling

  • Increasing knowledge of factors affecting landscape flammability

  • However, predicting landscape flammability has been largely unattained

  • This is even more challenging in the North American boreal forest

    • Most area burned is caused by few large and intense fires

    • Large spatial variations in the fire regime


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Introduction modeling

What we need

  • To quantatively evaluate landscape flammability (i.e., burn probability)

What we know

  • It is possible to predict individual fire behavior using the factors that affect physical fire spread (weather, fuels, topography)

  • Larger-scale aspects of the fire regime are best predicted probabilistically (i.e., ignitions, fire weather)

What we have

  • Fire growth models simulating physical fire spread

  • Historical wildfire information


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Objective modeling

  • To evaluate burn probabilities (BP) across a landscape using a modelling approach that combines

    • the physical components of fire spread

    • other probabilistic components of the fire regime

BURN-P3 (Probability, Prediction, and Planning)

Maps the probability of burning of the actual landscape under current burning conditions submitted to historical variability


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Study Area: Central Saskatchewan modeling

Area: 15 M hectares


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Components of the Model modeling

IGNITION LOCATIONS

Determined from historical fire databases

The information is drawn from statistical distributions

NUMBER OF ESCAPED FIRES

Probabilistic

NUMBER OF FIRE SPREAD DAYS

FIRE WEATHER

Simulates the growth of escaped fires (200 ha)

Mechanistic

PHYSICAL FIRE GROWTH


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Fire growth modeling modeling

WILDFIRE Fire Growth Model

  • Raster-based model

  • Based on Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System theory

    • Rate of spread equations

    • Fire behavior

  • Inputs

    • Hourly fire weather

    • Forest fuels

    • Topography

  • Produces maps of the fire perimeter and fire behavior


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Components of the Model modeling

NUMBER OF ITERATIONS

IGNITION LOCATIONS

Probability of burning =

Number of times each cell burned

Number of iteration

NUMBER OF ESCAPED FIRES

NUMBER OF FIRE SPREAD DAYS

FIRE WEATHER

PHYSICAL FIRE GROWTH

SIMULATIONS STORED


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Burn probability (%) modeling

Burn probability map

for the 2003 fire season


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

What’s next? modeling

  • Integrating Prometheus in BURN-P3

  • More realistic fire growth modeling

  • Increased functionality

  • Greater user base

  • Creating a graphic user interface for BURN-P3

  • BURN-P3 will become one of the first fire management strategic planning tools

  • Available Canada-wide, to any interested user

  • Flexible, user-friendly tool (i.e., not a strict model)

  • On-going process, open to suggestions from operations


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Questions? modeling


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Forest B modeling

Forest A

25 km

Burn probability (%)


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Spring modeling

Summer

Number of fires

50

150

250

350

Julian Day

Number of fires from 1981 to 2002

Study area


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Number of fires from 1981 to 2002 modeling

1

Study area


Fire size distribution

Historical fires modeling

Simulated fires

Fire Size Distribution


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Reduction in BP modeling


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Reduction in BP outside the perimeter modeling

Large burns disrupt the paths of incoming fires

The chance that fires ignite nearby is decreased


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

500 iterations modeling

73,000 ha

Objective #2: Heterogeneous (actual) landscape

Peripheral reduction in BP due to:

  • Different forest fuels

  • The amount and configuration of landscape features

  • The direction of predominant winds


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Objective #2: homogeneous landscapes modeling

Reduction in BP according to:

  • The shape of old burns

  • The size of old burns

    • 1000 ha

    • 10,000 ha

    • 100,000 ha

      All factors are held constant except:

  • Fire weather

  • Number of fire spread days

Old burn (non fuel)

100,000 ha

Boreal spruce fuel type

(most flammable)


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

100,000 ha modeling

1000 iterations


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Inside buffer modeling

Average BP = 1.9%

Outside buffer

Average BP = 2.6%

5-km buffer

1000 iterations


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

1-km buffer modeling

Average BP = 1.5%

2 to 5-km buffer

Average BP = 2.0%

1-km buffer

2 to 5-km buffer

  • Percent difference in BP between:

  • The two buffers: 25%

  • The 1-km buffer and outside the buffer: 42%

1000 iterations


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Kootenay Park modeling

Lodge

2003 fire

2001 fire


Questions
Questions? modeling


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Reduction in Landscape Flammability modeling

Fires 1945 to 2002

Present FBP fuels (LANDSAT)

Non fuel


Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

12 years of historical modeling

daily fire weather data

(40 wx stations)

Retrieve days with high/extreme fire weather (ISI  8.6)

Store by season (2) and weather region (8)

TOTAL =

16 weather files

SELECTION OF FIRE WEATHER RECORDS (DAYS)

Determine ISI for HFI  4000 kW/m for C-2, C-3, and C-4