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# Homework 6 results - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Homework 6 results. 1.a Y = 150X + 200 Y = 200 + 150X Six minutes of flight . . . Y = 150*6 + 200 Y = 1100. 1.b. Car rental Y = .06X + 29 Y = 29 + .06X Rental for 200 miles . . . Y = .06 * 200 + 29 Y = \$41.00.

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### Homework 6 results

1.a Y = 150X + 200Y = 200 + 150XSix minutes of flight . . . Y = 150*6 + 200Y = 1100

1.b. Car rental Y = .06X + 29 Y = 29 + .06XRental for 200 miles . . . Y = .06 * 200 + 29 Y = \$41.00

2.a. Net loss of \$20.   Loss of \$40 for membership plus \$20 savings on \$100 spent.

2.d.: The function is linear because the change in Y is constant across all values of X. For every \$100 spent, exactly \$20 saved.

2.e. constant across all values of X. For every \$100 spent, exactly \$20 saved. Amount spent = X Amount saved = Y Y = .2X - 40

### 3.a. Tobacco production constant across all values of X. For every \$100 spent, exactly \$20 saved.

3.b. Predicted 2012 production, equation method constant across all values of X. For every \$100 spent, exactly \$20 saved.

Y = -.0606 * 2010 + 122.28

Y = 0.353 billion pounds

3.b. constant across all values of X. For every \$100 spent, exactly \$20 saved. Predicted 2012 production, trendline extension method

3.c. Confidence in prediction constant across all values of X. For every \$100 spent, exactly \$20 saved.

3.c. Confidence in prediction constant across all values of X. For every \$100 spent, exactly \$20 saved.

Pro:

• Strong R-squared

• Near-term forecast

Con:

• Imperfections in fit to trendline

• Possible shift in trend in last four years

4.a. Percentage smokers constant across all values of X. For every \$100 spent, exactly \$20 saved.

Y = -.4397 * 2010 + 902.23

Y = 18.4%

4.d. Prediction of percentage smokers in 1953 extension method

Y = -.4397 * 1953 + 902.23

Y = 43.5%

4.d Confidence extension methodin prediction

Pro:

• Strong fit, R-squared

Con:

• Many years between 1953 and 1983, so many possible significant economic and social changes

4.e. Prediction when 100 percent smokers extension method

100 = -.4397 * X + 902.23

100-902.23 = -.4397 * X

-802.23/-.4397 = X

1824 = X

5.a Main point of article extension method

Projections of the percentage of the population

who will be obese in 40 years

is quite dubious

if not totally bogus.

5.b Relevance to linear models extension method

It makes exactly the same point

about projections far into the future

as we considered

with regard to the number of motor vehicles and  consumption of coal