Preparing for the Final Examination

1. Preparing for the Final Examination

2. Course Structure • Probability • Design Issues and Descriptive Statistics • Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests

3. Problem Tasks – Part I Bowls, Urns, Dice Estimate Probabilities Using Samples from Bowls, Urns, Dice Compute Probabilities from Probability Model for Bowls, Urns, Dice Compare Probabilities and Estimates from Bowls, Urns, Dice Random Variables Compute the Values of Random Variables Using the Definition Compute Probabilities of Outcomes Defined by Random Variables Probabilities Compute Probabilities from Scratch Using a Probability Model Compute Probabilities Using Computation Rules Interpret Probabilities Using Long Run Argument Compute Conditional Probabilities Using the Definition Random Samples and Probabilities Estimate Probabilities from Samples Compare Samples and Probability Models Evaluate the Rare Event Assumption Using Samples One or more cases from Part One will be presented on the Comprehensive Final Examination. It (they) will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old hourly ones and on old final exams.

4. Problem Tasks – Part II Clinical Trial Designs Sketch Clinical Trials Briefly and Completely Spot Faults in Clinical Trials Based on Brief Descriptions of Designs Random Sample Surveys Spot Faults in Sample Survey Designs Based on Brief Descriptions of Designs Descriptive Statistics Edit Data provided in cases Compute Statistics Using the Calculator Interpret Statistics Briefly and Completely Summary intervals Edit Data provided in cases Compute Intervals Using the Calculator Interpret Intervals Briefly and Completely One or more cases from Part Two will be presented on the Comprehensive Final Examination. It (they) will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old hourly ones and on old final exams.

5. Problem Tasks – Part III Confidence Interval Estimation Compute and Interpret Confidence Intervals for Population Means Compute and Interpret Confidence Intervals for Population Proportions Hypothesis Tests Compute and Interpret Hypothesis Test for Population Median Compute and Interpret Hypothesis Test for Goodness of Fit One or more cases from Part Three will be presented on the Comprehensive Final Examination. It (they) will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old hourly ones and on old final exams. Necessary tables will be supplied with the final examination.

6. Specifications for the Comprehensive Final Examination The course consists of three parts: Probability Statistical Design Concepts and Descriptive Statistics Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests The final will present four(4) cases. The final exam is comprehensive. In order to do well on the final, you must be proficient in cases from each part of the course. You are permitted the following: Your personal calculator; Your two (2) 8.5 by 11 inch toolsheets; Your writing utensils. You must not share resources or information during the final examination. You must sign and abide by the protocol provided with the final examination.

7. I will provide the final examination, writing paper, and the necessary statistical tables. The final comprises four(4) cases, and the final period is two (2) hours. This gives you approximately thirty(30) minutes per case. Plan accordingly. Grades and scores will be posted through the usual university channels. Course records and finals will be available in the Mathematics Office after the course is completed. I do not post/publish/e-mail grades. Currently, the university posts your grades online, and paper records are generally maintained in the respective department offices.

8. Grading Policy – Summer Term • We will have two (2) in-class examinations (called hourlies). • Your best performance will comprise 40% of your course grade. • Your second best performance will comprise 20% of your course grade. • We will have a comprehensive final examination, • which will comprise 40% of your course grade. • The Course Total Score and Course Letter Grade • The Course Total Score is the basis of the Letter Grade assigned for the course. The CTS has a maximum value of 100 points, accumulated as follows: • The highest of the three hourly scores contributes a maximum of 40 points to the CTS; • The 2nd highest of the three hourly scores contributes a maximum of 20 points to the CTS; • The Comprehensive Examination score contributes a maximum of 40 points to the CTS. • The only letter grade earned in the course is the letter grade assigned for the entire course. I do not interpret any of the preliminary scores as letter grades. • An "A" for the course requires a CTS of 90 or better; • A "B" for the course requires a CTS of 80-89; • A "C" for the course requires a CTS of 70-79; • A "D" for the course requires a CTS of 60-69; • A "F" for the course requires a CTS of 00-59. • Just remember the rule - 40/20/40 • The only letter grade for the course is the Course Grade. Do not interpret any of the individual scores on a letter grade scale.

9. Some Advice • Check your calculator’s health before the exam. • Bring pens, and work the final in ink – or bring pre-sharpened pencils. • Be sure to study your weakest areas. • Study more recent material earlier, then work backwards. • Customize your tool-sheets to your needs. • Recall that discussion and interpretation comprise 40% or more of earned credit on individual cases. • Be sure to use the methods and approaches specified in the cases.