Demographic Radicalization The Religiosity-Fertility Nexus and Politics
Demographic Radicalization The demographic increase of the conservative religious population at the expense of moderate or secular groups Why radical? Enlarges the pool of suppliers of, or recruits to, religious violence – unless totally quietist (ie Amish) May alter alliance behaviour and foreign policy
Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Northern Ireland • "The basic fear of Protestants in Northern Ireland is that they will be outbred by the Roman Catholics. It is as simple as that." - Terence O’ Neill, Unionist PM of Northern Ireland after resigning, 1969
Religious Demographic Advantage USA: religious restructuring – more intense have higher fertility (Hackett 2008) Europe: Religious have stable or increasing fertility advantage (Adsera 2004; Regnier-Loilier 2008, etc) Conservative Muslim and Christian immigration to Europe
Israel: Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Growth TFR of 6.49 in 1980-82 increasing to 7.61 in 1990-96; Other Israeli Jews decline 2.61 to 2.27 Proportion set to more than double, to 17% by 2020 No indication of major outflows Majority of Israeli Jews after 2050?
UK: A Tale of Two Cities: Salford v Leeds US: American Jews have TFR of 1.43. In 2000-6 alone, Haredim increase from 7.2 to 9.4 pc of total. Kiryas Joel, in Orange Co., New York, nearly triples in population to 18000 between 1990 and 2006
Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.
European Islam: A Reflection of Things to Come? Source: Westoff and Frejka 2007
Religion and Extremist Politics • Amish or jihadis? • Israel: • Haredi quietism and pragmatism • Growing split between Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv; • Haredi settlers/battalions, religious zionism, Yigal Amir
USA • Mainly individualistic and focused on domestic policy • Support Republican Party • Christian Zionism • Messianic foreign policy (‘rapture’, ‘end times’) • Anti-abortion violence • From quietism to activism
Muslim World • Most are quietist • No connection between orthodoxy and violence in surveys • Yet religion is least quietist • Jihadism and Saudi-funded pan-Islamism • Ambiguity of caliphatist groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir, Salafis • Violent element is a minority, is selective and reactive, but a small slice of a growing pie will enlarge pool of suppliers • All jihadis are fundamentalist, though recruits may be religiously illiterate
A More Violent World? • Rise in religious civil wars as proportion of total • Only a quarter are intra-faith, 9/10 Islamic • More conservative religious societies will probably produce more religious-type violence, less secular violence • Conflict sacralized, harder to reach settlements and agree common interests