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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review. June 30 - July 2, 2009. Land Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycling. Presented by Lori T. Sentman Elena Shevliakova. Vegetation structure in the LM3 land model. 5 vegetation types 5 vegetation C pools ( C l , C sw , C w , C r , C lv )

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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

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  1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

  2. Land Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycling Presented by Lori T. Sentman Elena Shevliakova

  3. Vegetation structure in the LM3 land model • 5 vegetation types • 5 vegetation C pools • (Cl, Csw, Cw, Cr, Clv) • 2 soil C pools • (Cfs and Css) • 4 land-use types • Up to 15 tiles of different ages per grid-cell • Natural mortality and fire Shevliakova et al., 2009

  4. LM3V generates present-day distributions of vegetation and soil C Vegetation C, Kg/m2 Soil C, Kg/m2 modelpotential,currentclimate observation-based estimates

  5. OBS, NH LM3V, NH OBS, SH LM3V, SH North South Hyde land-use scenario Sage-Hyde land-use scenario LM3V simulates the land-use sinks & sources, including forestry Simulated historical wood harvests compare well with the FAO-based estimates The model’s estimate of the 90s land use flux, 1.1-1.3 PgC/a, is about half of previous estimates and implies a smaller “missing sink” Shevliakova et al., 2009

  6. Uncertainty about CO2 fertilization is the key factor for future land C uptake +201Pg - 460Pg GFDL Slab-Ocean Climate Model (SM2.1-LM3V) Atmospheric CO2 concentration: 572 ppm in both experiments No fertilization, photosynthesis at 286 ppm Fertilization, photosynthesis at 572 ppm Equilibriumchanges in land C from preindustrial levels The difference in the resulting land carbon storage suggests that the magnitude of the CO2 fertilization uncertainty can be as large as that associated with clouds or oceanic heat uptake Shevliakova et al., subm.

  7. Transient changes in land C storage depend on CO2 fertilization (ESM2.1) CO2 fertilization: Carbon storage increases in 21st century and then declines No CO2 fertilization: Catastrophic loss of land carbon 2400 Photosynthesis at atmospheric concentrations 2200 Land Carbon, GtC 2000 1800 Photosynthesis at 286 1600 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 Historical CO2 SRES A1B CO2 concentrations

  8. Summary The GFDL ESM land component, LM3 represents a range of biosphere-climate interactions and feedbacks captures effects of both climate change and land use on vegetation dynamics and structure simulates historic and future distribution of Carbon sources and sinks A version of LM3 simulates coupled Carbon-Nitrogen dynamics in plants and soils poster by Gerber, Keel et al. Considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of climate effects on biosphere and its feedbacks

  9. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

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