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Local government in 2013…. Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI. Ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori www.ipsos-mori.com. Impressive reductions in spending…. Real budget increase 2010–11 to 2015–16.

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ben page chief executive ipsos mori

Local government in 2013…

Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

Ben.page@ipsos.com @benatipsosmori www.ipsos-mori.com

impressive reductions in spending
Impressive reductions in spending….

Real budget increase 2010–11 to 2015–16

Note: Figures show cumulative change in total DEL after economy-wide inflation.

Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies, July 2013

formerly loony councils now pretty good
Formerly loony councils now pretty good!

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Hackney Council runs things?

% of residents satisfied with Hackney Council

% satisfied with council

Year of survey

Base: Hackney Residents Survey All respondents (1,016). Fieldwork dates 5 January – 6 March 2013; Inner LB Residents Survey (1,153, 16+, face to face ). Fieldwork dates 18 April - 28 June 2011; 2011 Ipsos MORI National Capibus, (875, 15+ face to face). Fieldwork October 2011.

most of the public hasn t seen much change in their council s services
Most of the public hasn’t seen much change in their council’s services

Q On balance, do you think services provided by your local council have got better or worse over the last 12 months, or do you think they have stayed the same?

Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain, August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

slide6

No sign of a crisis in trust

Trust %

Base: Core sample in England; (2001: 9,270, 2003: 8,859, 2005: 9,104, 2007-08: 8,729, 2008-09: 8,706, 2009-10: 8,677, 2010-11: 9,521,

Aug 2012 – April 2013: 6,915)

  • Source: Citizenship Survey/ Community Life Survey
nationally as many services improving as deteriorating
Nationally as many services improving as deteriorating

Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed the same?

Base: 1,031

Source: BBC October 2013

street lighting ok not road condition
Street lighting ok – not road condition….
  • Q2. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…?

Street lighting

Overall

Cycle routes/facilities

Road condition

Buses

Base: valid responses among 53,676 British adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013

  • Source: m2i
clear what s getting worse
Clear what’s getting worse
  • Q2. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with…?

Change +

Reducing traffic

+6.0

Safer roads

+1.1

Pavements

+0.7

Local buses

+0.5

Taxi services

+0.5

Rights of Way

-0.3

Demand responsive transport

-0.4

-0.8

Community transport

Cycle routes

-0.8

Street lighting

-1.4

Overall*

-3.9

Highway condition

-10.5

  • *vs 2010

Base: valid responses among 53,676 British adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013

  • Source: m2i
not always been like this
Not always been like this

How satisfied or dissatisfied would you say you are with road maintenance in this area?

Source: Ipsos MORI for CSS

Base: 1,000-2,000 GB adults

dissatisfaction in county councils from 53 to 81
Dissatisfaction in County Councils – from 53% to 81%...

70 LAs

Base: valid responses among 53,676 English adults (70 LAs), July-August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI

among users look at the bottom
Among users…look at the bottom….

Do you think each service has got better or worse in the last five years, or has it stayed the same?

Base: Response from those who use the service

Source: BBC October 2013

Net score

+27

+21

+20

+12

+7

+6

+1

-4

-10

care for people with dementia is considered poor
Care for people with dementia is considered poor

Q How well do you feel that these groups are currently cared for by the NHS in your local area?

Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker

Base: Adults aged 16+ in England, December 2012 (1004)

slide14
Almost 2 in 3 lack confidence that older people receiving care services are treated with dignity and respect

How confident are you or not that older people who receive care services (such as help with getting dressed or washing) either at home or in a care home are treated with dignity and respect?

Source: Ipsos MORI/Age UK

Base: General public aged 50+ (971) 8-26 March 2013

Very confident

Don’t know

Fairly confident

Confident

28%

Not at all confident

Not confident

63%

Not very confident

majority haven t noticed changes to service but
Majority haven’t noticed changes to service – BUT...

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements

Base: 1,015British adults 18+

Ipsos MORI/ NLGN, January 2013

Around one in four people agree with both statements....

Agree = 29% Conservatives, 60% Labour

slide16
BUT… although economic worry on wane nationally, locally public growing concerned about what is yet to come

Q How concerned, if at all, are you about the effect of cuts to local council services on you and your family in the next 12 months?

Concerned 55%

Concerned 66%

Base: 1,007 adults aged 18+ in Britain, August 2013 / 1,015 adults aged 18+ in Britain, January 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

varies as you d expect
Varies as you’d expect…

% very or fairly concerned about the effect of the cuts on them and their families

Base: All members of the public interviewed online in GB (1,009); fieldwork, 9-11 November 2012

Source: Ipsos MORI

slide18
Public contradiction about the tough road ahead presents challenges for how things are managed in the future

Q To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements

Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, January 2013

Source: Ipsos MORI/ NLGN

different generations now have very different expectations
Different generations now have very different expectations

“How much do you agree or disagree that … the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain's proudest achievements.”

% % Agree/Strongly agree

a noble goal what would make you happiest
A noble goal...what would make you happiest?

%

Double my income

Better Health

Base: 2,015 interviewed face to face in home in GB aged 15 +, 20-25 Sept

the public claim to be in good health
The public claim to be in good health

Q How is your health in general? Would you say it was...

Base: Adults aged 16+ in England (at least 4,500 per wave)

Source: Health Survey for England

%

Very good/ good health

Very bad/ bad health

Data up to 2002 are unweighted. From 2003 onwards, data have been weighted for non-response

the facts say obesity levels
The facts say …..obesity levels

Source: Health Survey for England

the facts say booze consumed
The facts say - booze consumed

Source: Health Survey for England

slide27

They are aware of the big health issues

Q Thinking generally, what are the biggest health problems facing people today? What else?

All mentions above 2%

Base: 1,004 English adults aged 16+, Dec 2012

Source: Ipsos MORI/DH Perceptions of the NHS Tracker

and they say they recognise the importance of lifestyle
And they say they recognise the importance of lifestyle

Q Looking at this card, which factors, if any, do you think have the biggest impact on your chances of living a long and healthy life?

Base: 1,994 British adults, Aug 2008

Source: Ipsos MORI

they claim price is key to helping them be healthier
They claim price is key to helping them be healthier

Q Which of the following would encourage you to lead a healthier lifestyle?

Lower prices for using leisure centres

Lower prices for healthy food

Better sports and leisure facilities

Having more time

Being told to by my doctor for health reasons

Having more healthy food available in local shops

Better access to weight loss services

Better information about how to eat healthily

Better information about how to be more physically active

Having help with my caring responsibilities

Better access to stop smoking services

Advice and support to stop/cut down drinking alcohol

Nothing, I already lead a healthy lifestyle

Base: 4,824 adults, Sept - Dec 2011

Source: Ipsos MORI

how do human beings make choices decisions
How do human beings make choices/decisions ?

Gather pertinent information

Process pertinent information

Calculate optimal choice

Rational decision-making process

Decidebased on faulty cal-culations

Decide without fully processing the facts

Decide

without all the data/using irrelevant data

Short- circuits

of the ‘rational’ process

Traditional analysis of human decision making by economists

case study five a day
Case study – five a day

Source: 5 a Day campaigns in Argentina, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Spain, UK, US

re thinking approaches the limitation of communications
Re-thinking approaches: the limitation of communications

Have you eaten any fruit and vegetables in the last 24 hours?

Base: 1,732, 2 February 27-March 2009

Source: Ipsos MORI

what are behaviour change interventions
What are behaviour change interventions?

“Spillage was reduced by up to 80%”

slide35

Any aspect of the choice architecture that alters people’s behaviour in a predictable way

Thaler & Sunstein, Nudge

successful change campaigns use a mix of informing enabling incentivising and enforcing
Successful change campaigns use a mix of informing, enabling, incentivising and enforcing

Inform

Enable

Influence

Incentivise

Enforce

Source: Websites, press search

but we can also learn from behavioural science
But we can also learn from behavioural science
  • People make choices without going through a full ‘rational’ decision-making process’
  • Certain biases pre-dispose people to short-cut the rational decision-making process
  • Using these biases in a systematic way can make campaigns significantly more likely to succeed

Inform

Enable

Influence

Incentivise

Enforce

question

65

Question

What percentage of African countries are members of the United Nations?

evidence anchoring

65

Evidence – anchoring

Numbers

shown on

“roulette”

wheel

Mean

estimate of

respondents

10

65

25%

45%

Source: Kahneman and Tversky, 1974

the significance of framing anchoring
The significance of framing/anchoring

Imagine you have a life-threatening illness and your doctor has told you that you need an operation to treat it. How likely, if at all, are you to have this operation if your doctor tells you that...

Base: c. 500 British adults aged 16-75

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

Avoid communications on “negatives”

example bias anchoring
Example bias – anchoring

People’s estimates are swayed by data suggested to them beforehand, even when they know the data is irrelevant or false.

Source: Daniel Kahneman, Daniel Tversky (1974); McKinsey synthesis

case study anchoring
Case study – anchoring!

Source: 6 a Day campaign in Denmark

example bias social norms
Example bias – Social norms

People tend to follow their peer group – if they see many people doing something, they aim to do it too.

Source: Bandura, Grusec and Menlove (1967);Milgram et al (1969); Cialdini; McKinsey synthesis

example bias reciprocity
Example bias – reciprocity

You are more likely to obtain a large commitment if you obtain a small one first.

Source: Festinger, 1957; Cialdini (2006); McKinsey synthesis

behavioural norms we can use
Behavioural Norms we can use….

Short-circuits of rational decision-making process

Our Biases

Reciprocity

Liking

Status quo

Decide without all the data/using irrelevant data

Consistency

Scarcity

Endowment

Social norms

Authority

Availability/ recency

Decide without fully processing

all the facts

Choice overload

Justifiability

Anchoring

Framing/ contrast

Regret aversion

Hyperbolic discounting

Decide

based on faulty calculations

Loss aversion

Certainty preference

Probability misassessment

Mental accounting

Breakpoints

False memory

smarter design to reduce error
Smarter design to reduce error

Source: ‘Applying behavioural insights to reduce error, fraud and debt,’ Cabinet Office, 2012

loft insulation its not money
Loft insulation – its not money

Source: Behavioural Insights Team, 2012

massive latent digital demand
Massive latent DIGITAL demand

Q Thinking about public services, which, if any, of the following would you be prepared to do online?

Q And which have you actually done online in the last 6 months?

Find details of local doctors and dentists

Finding out what public services are spending money on

Get information about local schools

Register to vote

Apply for a driving licence or passport

Pay your local council tax bill or a parking fine

Make a complaint

Renew a library book

Report a crime

Base: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI

in conclusion
In conclusion...
  • You have dealt much better with austerity than even you might have suspected!
  • Public fearful about the future for services, and for themselves
  • The agenda just keeps getting bigger – focus becomes more and more important
  • Huge opportunities from technology to improve services
  • More pressure to lead, rather than manage – tell the story and take people with you
  • Key question – what sort of country do we want to be?
  • Good luck!
thank you
Thank you

@benatipsosmori www.ipsos-mori.com