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“The Big Picture” – Central Asian Power

“The Big Picture” – Central Asian Power. Michael Trainor USAID/Central Asian Republics Almaty 14 April 2011. CAR Power System. Observations:. Institutional and Legal Framework Absent Erosion of Confidence in System’s Value and Viability Response: Pursuit of Self-Sufficiency, Isolation.

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“The Big Picture” – Central Asian Power

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  1. “The Big Picture” – Central Asian Power Michael Trainor USAID/Central Asian Republics Almaty 14 April 2011

  2. CAR Power System

  3. Observations: • Institutional and Legal Framework Absent • Erosion of Confidence in System’s Value and Viability • Response: Pursuit of Self-Sufficiency, Isolation

  4. CAR Power System – Future Uknown ?

  5. Consequences: • $00s of Millions in Duplicate Infrastructures • $00s of Millions in Excess Generation Costs from Sub-Optimal Dispatch • Capital Projects Impeded • Disconnection  Severe Rationing • Economic Activity Impeded

  6. Regional Risks • Regional Tension, Potential for Physical Conflicts • Climate-Change Adaptation Measures Impeded • Investment Climate Degraded

  7. Regional Power Cooperation - What’s Needed? • Indigenous Regional Multilateral Institutional Framework for Cooperation • Must be fit-for-purpose • Purpose must be to elaborate credible and sustainable agreement on energy and water • Evolutionary Process • Focus on Intermediate Steps & Successes, and on what’s Immediately Achievable

  8. National Level Power Sector Challenges • Woefully Inadequate Management and Sector Governance • Sector Decapitalization • Service Quality Deterioriation

  9. National Level Power Sector Challenges • Risks: • Impeded Economic Activity = Perpetuation of Poverty • Political Instability – Popular Discontent • Catastrophic Failures – Disaster Looming

  10. National Level Power Sector Challenges • Regional Implications and Consequences: • Disconnection of TJ Explained by Unsanctioned/Uncontracted Load • Reinforcement of pursuit of isolation at expense of cooperation • Why might TJ be drawing uncontracted load?

  11. National Level Challenges - Prescriptions • Fundamental Sector Governance and Management Reform • Exorcising the “Vested-Interest Demons” • Supporting Social Policy Programs • Role of Donors? • What do we mean by “enabling environment”?

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