Jytte Boll Illerup Department of Policy Analysis National Environmental Research Institute

1. Biofuels for transport – environmental effectsand costsFrom Agenda to Action – A California/Denmark Workshop on Clean Technology29th of January to 2nd of February 2007 Jytte Boll Illerup Department of Policy Analysis National Environmental Research Institute University of Aarhus

2. About the project • The project is funded by the Strategic Research Council, Program Committee for Energy and Environment in Denmark • The budget for the project is 15,000,000 DKK (2,500,000 US$) for the period 2007 to 2010. • 7 institutes participate in the project: • National Environmental Research Institute (Department of Policy Analysis), University of Aarhus • National Environmental Research Institute (Department of Atmospheric Environment), University of Aarhus • Risø National Laboratory (Department of System Analysis), Technical University of Denmark • Danish Transport Research Institute, Technical University of Denmark • Danish Technological Institute (Renewable Energy and Transport) • Department of Chemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark • Institute of Public Health, University of Copenhagen

3. Background • Biofuels have been in political focus for the last years, both internationally and in Denmark, because there is a desire to • reduce GHG emissions • enhance energy supply security • For the European Union, the EU Biofuel Directive has set a target of 5.75% by 2010 for the biofuel share of transport fuels and the EC has proposed a target of 10 % for 2020. • For Denmark the target is 10 % by 2020. • Until now no detailed analyses of the nationwide implications in terms of changes in emissions, land use and other environmentaleffects have been undertaken.

4. Objectives • To carry out a multi-disciplinary integrated impact assessment of introducing biofuels in Denmark, by covering both application and resource sides, and addressing a broad range of impacts, i.e. • emission and air quality changes • health aspects • resource and land use changes • economic and sociological aspects. • To compare impacts of using • biofuels (e.g. bioethanol, biodiesel) against using conventional fossil fuels in the transport sector. • biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel) in the transport sector against using biofuels in other sectors (combined heat and power).

5. Project plan • Eight different work packages (WP) covering • scenario development • emission measurements and modelling • air quality and exposure modelling • land-use modelling • socioeconomic and sociological analyses

6. Project approach WP VIII: Sociological aspects WP I: Scenarios WP III: Measurements WP II: Emission calculations WP VI: Biomass production - spatial distribution and environmentalimpact WPIV: Formation and transformation of pollutants WP V: Environment and health WP VII: Welfare economic analyses

7. WP IScenarios in a renewable energy system Result Three different scenarios to 2030 for two biofuels (ethanol and diesel). These scenarios form the basis for all the other WPs. Content • A baseline scenario based on national energy projections, and EC policies and resource assessments. • The baseline scenario but with increasing use of biofuels from 2010 to 2030. • An impact-adopted scenario in which the use of biofuels is adopted to given environmental limits. Inputs from WP VIII: Sociological aspects Output to WP II: Emission calculations and VI: Biomass production

8. WP II Emission inventory and projections Result Quantification and comparison of the ‘Well to wheel’ (WTW) emissions from the scenarios described in WP I. Content • WTW emission estimates for • greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) • air pollutants SO2, NOx, NMVOC (including PAHs and carbonyls) • PM (particle number, size distribution and chemical composition). • Projection of national emissions by means of forecast emission models for stationary combustion and mobile sources. • Geographic distribution of emissions Inputs from WP I: Scenarios and WP III: Measurements Output to WP V: Environment and health

9. WP V Environmental and health impact assessment Result Description of impacts of using biofuels with focus on air quality, deposition, human exposure and public health. Content • Estimate • air quality by means of air quality models • dose-response relationships related to biofuels • In vitro toxicological assessment of PM exposure with respect to • inflammation • oxidative stress (PhD study). Inputs from WP II: Emission calculations and WP III: Measurements Output to WP VII: Welfare economic analyses

10. WP III + IV Emission measurements Result Measurements of exhaust emissions (CO, NOx, HC and VOCs (e.g. PAHs and carbonyls including acetaldehyde), PM) and determination of particle-size distributions and the chemical composition of PM. Content • Testing of two modern diesel engines with different PM/NOx performance (different emission reduction methods) and a flexi-fuel gasoline engine with three-way catalyst on an engine test rig. • Investigate the negative emission effects on particulate filter lifetimes. • Development of models for particle formation and combustion in engines. Simulations will be compared with experimental results (PhD study). Output to WP II: Emission calculations

11. WP VIProduction of biomass, its spatial distribution and its impact on the environment Result Estimation of potentially available biomass resources from agriculture crop production and environmental impacts of land-use change scenarios. Content • Develop models for spatial distribution of non-food crop production. • Assess the effects of the land-use change on nutrition and pesticide emissions, and changes in carbon sequestration potential in biomass and soil. • Develop spatial land-use scenarios which balance the demand for biomass production with environmental, nature and landscape protection (PhD study) Inputs from WPI: Scenarios Output to WP I and VII: Scenarios and welfare economic analyses

12. WP VIIWelfare economic analyses of biofuel production and use Result ‘Well to wheel’ welfare economic analyses of various biofuel scenarios. Content The welfare cost-benefit analyses will include economic evaluation of • costs of production and use of biofuels • environmental and health consequences (positive and negative) • effects on the Danish agricultural landscape • impacts of increased energy security (Post Doc) Inputs from WP V: Environment and health and WP VI: Biomass production

13. WP VIIISociological aspects of scenarios for biofuels in the transport sector Result: Sociological analysis of attitudes among the Danish population to the consequences of the use of biofuels. Content: The study will include in-depth interview with selected respondents as well as a number of focus-group interviews. • ethical and environmental questions • cultural approaches and future perspectives Input from WP I: Scenarios Output to WP I: Scenarios

14. Applications of the project • Contribution to the scientific debate on biofuels in Denmark. • Providing a solid foundation for the national and European policy process, and for decision-making by, among others, the European Environment Agency. • Serving as input to environmental declarations for fuels.