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OVERVIEW

A CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC: PREPARING FOR A GROWING ELDERLY POPULATION Richard Deitz Federal Reserve Bank of New York September 17, 2009 richard.deitz@ny.frb.org. OVERVIEW. Upstate New York, like the nation, has an aging population—and is older than is typical in the U.S.

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OVERVIEW

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  1. A CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC: PREPARING FOR A GROWING ELDERLY POPULATIONRichard DeitzFederal Reserve Bank of New YorkSeptember 17, 2009richard.deitz@ny.frb.org

  2. OVERVIEW • Upstate New York, like the nation, has an aging population—and is older than is typical in the U.S. • Retirements will create a need for workers in pockets of the economy, despite no net growth in jobs • An increase in the number of frail and disabled elderly who rely on local services and infrastructure • Seniors may find it hard to ‘age in place’ because of a growing disparity between the features of the houses they own and the houses they need

  3. 200 150 100 50 Age Index (1970 = 100) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 AGING POPULATION The elderly population is growing The non-elderly population is flat 75+ Old-old growing faster than young-old Upstate New York 65+ 65-74 <65 Note: Post 2000 data are projected Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and NY Statistical Information System, Cornell University

  4. AGING POPULATION The elderly share of the population is rising 1 in 5 20% 15% 10% 5% Upstate NY 1 in 7 1 in 10 U.S. Share of Population 65+ Note: Post 2000 data are projected 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Economy.com

  5. AGING POPULATION Upstate metro areas among oldest in nation Syracuse 13.3% Rochester13.4% 11th Buffalo15.4% 28th 26th Albany13.5% 25th Note: Ranked out of 101 metro areas with 500,000+ population Source: 2007 American Community Survey

  6. 19% - 23% <19% >23% AGING POPULATION Inner-ring suburbs tend to have more elderly Buffalo Rochester Share of Population 65+, 2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  7. Migration of the Population Aged 30-64, 1995 - 2000 OUT-MIGRATION A net outflow of the working-age population Number Percent Rank In-migration In-migration 193,090 6.6% 50 Out-migration Out-migration 255,851 8.7% 27 Net Net -62,761 -2.2% 48 Notes: Rank is of 51, if upstate New York were a separate state from downstate New York; Age group examined tends to eliminate college students who may have moved to the region only to attend school. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  8. OUT-MIGRATION Out-migration is typical, but little in-migration 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Rank: 29 Migration Rate of Population Between 1995 and 2000 Aged 30 – 64 in Upstate NY 13.4% Rank: 51 9.3% Rank: 27 Rank: 48 7.0% 5.6% 4 or more years of college Less than 4 years of college In-migration Out-migration Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  9. AGING POPULATION Much of the elderly population doing well More low-income elderly in the region But fewer in poverty 39% Upstate Income >$35,000 38% U.S. 30% Income <$15,000 27% 7% Below Poverty* 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of 65+ Population, 2000 * Values are for percentage of individuals aged 65 and over Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  10. WORKERS NEEDED Despite no net job growth: • Occupations with greater concentrations of older workers face more rapid retirements • Economic restructuring is creating a need for more workers in many key occupations • This combination will cause significant labor market pressures in some occupations • Employers will increasingly need to focus on finding and retaining key workers

  11. RETIREMENTS Projected retirement rates in the U.S. (2002–2012) 19.3% Management 19.0% Community & Social Services 18.1% Education 16.5% Business & Finance 15.4% Production Source: Bureau of the Census, NYS Department of Labor 14.0% Personal Care & Tourism 14.0% Healthcare Support 12.6% Construction 10.0% Computer/IT 8.4% Food Preparation

  12. WORKERS NEEDED Least Need Production Office & Admin. Support Food Preparation Architects & Engineers Physical & Social Scientists Sales and Retail Greatest Need Community & Social Services - Social Workers - Substance Abuse Counselors - Clergy Healthcare Support - Nursing Aides - Medical & Dental Assistants - Physical Therapists Teachers & Librarians Building Maintenance Personal Services & Tourism - Gaming Dealers - Funeral Attendants - Child Care Protection - Police - Firefighters

  13. DEMAND FOR SERVICES Four groups that most rely on support • Disabled – frequently rely on accessible transportation and special forms of housing • Low-income seniors – more likely to rely on public programs and otherwise need support • Living alone – less likely to have family assistance, tend to have worse health outcomes following hospitalization • Over 75 – more likely to experience declining health, loss of a spouse, diminished income & assets

  14. HIGH-NEEDS ELDERLY Upstate’s older population is of higher need Percent of Older Population with Selected Characteristics, 2000 Population Aged 65 and Over Upstate New York United States 38.3 41.9 Disability 39.5 37.8 Low-income 29.5 32.8 Living alone 47.4 49.5 75 and over Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  15. HIGH-NEEDS ELDERLY More elderly coupled with higher need will lead to greater demand for services & infrastructure Concentration of High-Needs Elderly in Large MSAs, 2000 U.S. Median Rochester Syracuse Buffalo 75+ and low income 65+ and significant disability 75+ and living alone 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percentage of Total Population Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  16. HIGH-NEEDS ELDERLY Demand concentrated in older, first-ring suburbs Concentration of High-Needs Elderly by Community Type, Large Metro Areas in Upstate New York, 2000 Rural Suburbs New Suburbs Primary Cities Old Suburbs 75+ and low income 65+ and significant disability 75+ and living alone 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Percentage of Total Population Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  17. CHALLENGES • Demand highest in those parts of the region already experiencing fiscal stress • Public provision will continue to be under pressure, especially as budgets tighten • Community based organizations that serve the region’s older population may find it increasingly difficult to obtain resources from government

  18. AGING IN PLACE • Seniors prefer to age in place • 80% aged 50+ prefer to remain at home even if need assistance (AARP: 2000) • Growing opportunity • Access to long-term care services in home- and community-based settings • Mandate under ADA

  19. AGING IN PLACE Most upstate seniors are homeowners 85 80 75 70 65 60 Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Homeownership Rate% 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  20. AGING IN PLACE • Homes often ill-suited to changing needs • Physical layout makes accessibility difficult • Maintenance and repair needs can be high • Location often remote or inconvenient

  21. AGING IN PLACE • Homes in upstate New York may be particularly ill-suited • Older vintage • Nearly 70% of senior-owned homes built pre-1960 • 80% of senior homeowners have been living in • home for > 20 years • Low density • More than 80% of owned homes are single-family, detached Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  22. AGING IN PLACE Case Study: Erie County’s senior population and housing City Of Buffalo Inner Suburbs Outer Suburbs Population Characteristics 26 $30,867 56 100 76 56 $39,242 60 69 90 14 $42,787 67 7 93 Distribution of Residents Mean Income Live With Others Live Within Three Miles of Hospital Vehicle Available Housing Characteristics Single-Story Home Home Built Pre 1940 Mean Home Value Lot Size Greater Than ¼ Acre 6 72 $66,177 1 43 19 $125,732 83 49 16 $95,007 25 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, NYS Office of Real Property Services

  23. EMERGING RESPONSES • Market responses • Home modification and design services • Personal and household services • Geriatric health technologies and products • Community responses • Neighborhood partnerships to negotiate service provision • Non-profit services (transportation, meals, prescreened contractors) • Policy responses • Interventions to avoid or delay institutional care • Medicaid coverage of housekeeping, heating assistance, etc.

  24. CONCLUSIONS • Growing senior population will create many challenges for the region • Even with little (if any) net job growth, workers will be in demand in some pockets of the economy • Upstate New York has a somewhat higher needs population than is typical, concentrated in inner cities and older suburbs • Demand for aging related services, housing, and infrastructure likely to be strongest where fiscal stress is greatest

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