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Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)

Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC). Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in Mongolia. Data, Trends and Scenarios. Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop

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Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)

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  1. Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in Mongolia Data, Trends and Scenarios Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop Bangkok, 24-27 March 2002 P.Batima, Natsadorj, P. Gomboluudev, Natsagsuren, Erdenetsetseg, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

  2. DATA

  3. Climate • Temperature • Precipitation • 1945, 40

  4. Natural resources base • Water resources (1945, 20) • Monthly discharge • Ice event • Spring and summer flood • Snow cover (1960, 30) • Dates • Soil (1960, 20-30) • Moisture • Thawing and freezing • Permafrost

  5. Pasture • Productivity (1960) • Phenology

  6. Animal husbandry • Animal weight (1980, 3) • Productivity • Wool • Cashmere • Dates on

  7. Trends

  8. Recent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.660C

  9. Winter-Summer temperature differences

  10. Precipitation

  11. Precipitation

  12. Soil moisture

  13. Snow Cover

  14. Spring and Summer flood

  15. Scenarios

  16. GHG SRES scenarios

  17. GHG SRES scenarios • High Emissions A1FI • Medium-High Emissions A2 (IPCC, DDC) • Medium-Low Emissions B2 (IPCC, DDC) • Low Emissions B1 • 540-970 ppm

  18. Model Temperature Observed Simulation BIAS St. deviation Variation 1.HadCM3 Annual mean 0.66 -0.44 1.13 1.32 1.75 Summer 17.02 16.22 0.79 1.46 2.14 Winter -17.55 -18.42 0.92 3.21 10.03 2. CGCM3 Annual mean 0.66 -7.06 7.63 4.78 22.88 Summer 17.02 12.16 4.75 3.39 11.55 Winter -17.55 -27.06 9.44 6.76 45.4 3. CSIRO Annual mean 0.66 -0.86 1.54 3.25 10.54 Summer 17.02 19.18 -2.16 3.33 11.06 Winter -17.55 -18.02 0.53 5.27 27.27 How accurate is the climate model?

  19. Simulation of Current Climate, 1961-1990 January July

  20. Time slice Winter Summer Annual Temperature, Celsius 2020 0.85 1.99 1.37 2050 2.37 3.53 2.81 2080 3.89 6.35 4.88 Precipitation, mm 2020 5.0 -5.2 9.1 2050 8.2 15.1 44.3 2080 14.2 13.6 55.4 Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios by HadCM3 Climate Model

  21. Scenarios of Temperature

  22. Annual mean temperature, HadCM3 A2 1961-1990 2020 2050 2080

  23. Scenarios of Precipitation

  24. Thank you

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