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PROGRESS REPORT TWG I: Energy Policy Analysis by Rahmat A. Al Hasibi

Progress report on energy policy analysis conducted by Rahmat A. Al Hasibi in Semarang on July 13, 2011. Includes development of CASINDO Leap Model, household sector survey results, scenarios, baseline and energy efficiency scenarios, GDP data, and LEAP Model overview.

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PROGRESS REPORT TWG I: Energy Policy Analysis by Rahmat A. Al Hasibi

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  1. PROGRESS REPORT TWG I: Energy Policy Analysis by Rahmat A. Al Hasibi Semarang July, 13th 2011

  2. Outline • Development of CASINDO Leap Model • CASINDO database structure • Survey result of Household sector • Scenarios: • Baseline scenario • The integration of TWG III result in energy efficiency scenario • Overview of LEAP Model • Next Activity

  3. CASINDO Database Structure (Household) CAREPI CASINDO

  4. The Result of Household Survey • adjusted to 2008 condition

  5. Population and population growth Population of Y ogyakarta Province in 2008:3, 4 6 8,502 people Population growth in 2005 – 2008: 1.01 % Population growth assumption in scenario: GDP and GDP growth: GDP of Yogyakarta Province in 2008: 19 , 208, 9 3 6 GDP growth in 2008: 5.02 % GDP growth assumption in 2025: 6 .0 % kerosene to LPG conversion: End in 2010 Electrification ratio: 100 % in 2020 Baseline Scenario

  6. Energy Efficiency Scenario • National Target in Energy Efficiency (25/25 vision) • Industrial Sector: 22 % final energy ~ 32 % primary energy • Commercial Sector: 15 % final energy ~ 22 % primary energy • Transportation Sector: 25 % final energy ~ 3 7 % primary energy • Household Sector: 25 % final energy ~ 37 % primary energy • National: 23 % final energy ~ 3 4 % primary energy • Regional Energy Efficiency Potential: • Industrial Sector: 15 – 20 % • Household Sector: 10 – 25 % • Transportation Sector*: 25 % • Commercial Sector*: 25 – 30 %

  7. LEAP Model (Overview)

  8. LEAP Model (Overview)

  9. LEAP Model (Overview)

  10. Next Activity • July-September 2011, to finalize: • scenarios of LEAP model • D28 report

  11. Thank you

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