Presented by : Prof. G.V. Gruza,

1. On the topic “RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION” for the Fourth National Communication Presented by:Prof. G.V. Gruza, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE, Roshydromet and RAS) Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE), Russia

2. In theRussian Federationclimatic researches are conducted within: • Roshydromet(Federal Hydrometereology and Environmental Monitoring Service), • RAS(the Russian Academy of Sciences), • some Universities and Institutes Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, Russia

3. Roshydromet conducts investigations on the following directions: • climate system monitoring and assessment of climate variability for the major regions of Russia and Globe; • assessment of global changes in a chemical compound of the atmosphere, including concentration of greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone; • assessment of climate changes using physical and mathematical modeling; • ecological, social and economic impacts of climate changes • applied climatology Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, Russia

4. In RAS The Program«Changes in Environment and Climate: natural catastrophy» combines the climate change researches within subprogram «Climate Changes: influence of extraterrestrial and terrestrial factors» such as: • Studies of influence of terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors on changes in a chemical compound and structure of the upper, middle and lower atmosphere • The diagnosis of regional catastrophic climate changes including detection natural and anthropogenic factors • Mathematical modeling of the possible catastrophic climate changes • Global variations of the geomagnetic fields and lunar tides and their relationships with climate changes • Investigation of the dangerous hydrometeorological events Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, Russia

5. I think It would be useful to strengthen nationalresearch programs on some studiesandto submit their results intoFourth NationalCommunications as HIGHLIGHTS such as Analysis and improvement of data homogeneity for the period of instrumental observations. In particular, for Russia, as well as for other countries with cold winters and significant fraction of frozen precipitation, improvement of homogeneity of atmospheric precipitation data is actual. For all countries the problem of climate changes detection in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme processes and events is actual, and An assessment of abilities of the modern climatic models to reproduce the extremes. Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, Russia

6. Has the observed climate become morevariable and/or extreme?

7. A small change in average temperature can cause a large change in the frequency of temperature extremes

8. Likewise, a change in variability can cause a change in the frequency of extremes

9. However, the largest change in temperature extremes can occur when both average and variance change

10. To estimate, whether slow changes in characteristics of variability and extremity exist, we should eliminate slow variations of means in observation time series. • As a model of slow variations of means, i.e., trends, we attempt the following time series of “dynamic normals”: • low-pass filtered series Rm; • linear trend (regression on the time) Ry; • regression on the carbon dioxide concentration Rc; • regression on the global annual mean temperature Rg.

12. For the estimation of low-frequency variability and existence of monotonic trends of variability we use time series of absolute values of deviations from “dynamic norms” or from regressions mentioned above.

14. Spectralanalysis: NH-T Dm Am

15. Trends inabsolute valuesofdeviations of the mean surface temperature from their regression on the averaged CO2-concentration

16. |T-regr(CO2)|, Year (Jan.-Dec.), 1951-1998

17. |T-regr(CO2)|, Cold (Oct.-Mar.), 1951-1998

18. |T-regr(CO2)|, Warm (Apr.-Sep.), 1951-1998

19. systematic observations RosHydromet is responsible for systematic observations on climate.  Following the UNFCCC guidelines, the NC3 includes an annex with information on the Global Climate ObservingSystem (GCOS).  Terrestrial observationsare conducted in conjunction with specific projects only, as there is not apermanent system required by the GCOS. We hope to include separate report on our GCOS activity into THE FOURTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION

20. Observational Network Over Russia (Climate Monitoring in IGCE) RUSSIA S455-monthly S223-daily

21. Number of meteorological stations, presented in IGCE-climatic database for the period from 1886 to 2000 Globe (max=1383)f.USSR (max=455)

23. What is planned to do: 1. To improve the basic climatic datasets: * To extend a set of hydrometeorological variables * To increase a network density up to 600 stations (from 200) for air temperature and up 1000 stations with precipitation data * To provide a time resolution till "daily" one. * To improve data homogeneity and quality.

24. 2. To investigate and monitor the regional climates changes and variability: * To create sets of regional indicators (indices) to be used in regular regional climate monitoring of a climate state, climate variability and extremity. * To develop the methods for a joint analysis of the observed and modeled data to realize a model validation and model quality assessment * To attribute the possible natural and anthropogenic reasons responsible for the climate changes observed.