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Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals

N EWMONT. Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals. January 2002. Improving Market Fundamentals. Primary Bullish Factors Outlook for Declining Gold Supply Strong Physical Demand Opportunities & Trends Coordinated Industry Marketing Program Reduced Incentives for Hedge-Related Selling

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Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals

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  1. NEWMONT Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals January 2002

  2. Improving Market Fundamentals • Primary Bullish Factors • Outlook for Declining Gold Supply • Strong Physical Demand Opportunities & Trends • Coordinated Industry Marketing Program • Reduced Incentives for Hedge-Related Selling • Gold Market Dynamics Overview • Promising Investment Environment

  3. Outlook for Declining Gold Supply • Significantly Slowing Production Growth • New mine supply has slowed sharply in recent years Year on Year % Change Source: Gold Fields Mineral Services & USB Warburg.

  4. Outlook for Declining Gold Supply(continued) • Declining Leading Production Indicators • Substantial reductions in capital programs and projects • Significant cut-backs in exploration budgets CAPEX/Oz Produced for Large N.A. Producers Exploration Spending & Average Gold Price Source: Goldman Sachs,GFMS, Metals Economics Group & Company Annual reports

  5. Outlook for Declining Gold Supply(continued) • Sharpest Decline Expected Since 1976 • Consolidation & fewer credible gold projects • Little additional production for the next 5 years Global Gold Supply (1989-2000) Global Gold Supply (10-Year Outlook) 4,500 4,500 4,000 4,000 3,500 3,500 3,000 3,000 2,500 Tonnes 2,500 Tonnes 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 500 500 0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001e 2003e 2005e 2007e 2009e 2000e Mine production Central bank sales Mine production Central bank sales Old gold scrap Net hedging Net hedging Old gold scrap Implied disinvestment Implied disinvestment Source: Goldman Sachs outlook.

  6. Outlook for Declining Gold Supply(continued) • Central Bank Agreement on Gold • September 1999 Agreement between 15 European Central Banks termed the “Washington Agreement” • Austria, Germany, France, Italy, Holland, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, European Central Bank • Agreed to limit sales to 400 tonnes annually through 2004 • Removed much of the uncertainty over future Central Banks sales & lending activities • U.K. Central Bank 20 tonne bimonthly sales will be completed in 2Q 2002 Composition of C.B. Gold Holding Source: GFMS & JP Morgan Research

  7. Strong Physical Demand Opportunities • Solid Jewelry Demand Backed by Unprecedented Marketing Initiative • Strong Physical Demand Growth Trends • Initiation of Global Marketing Campaign • Estimated 340-500 additional tonnes of gold jewellery demand by 2006 • Possible $30-$40/oz increase in spot price US Jewelry Demand Source: Murenbeeld & Associates; GFMS; WGC; McKinsey analysis * McKinsey modelled changes in demand for gold jewellery as functions of changes in gold price, income per capita and population. There are very high correlations for most countries between actual recorded volumes and the model between 1980 and 1995.

  8. Reduced Incentives for Hedgers • “To Hedge or Not to Hedge?” • Views of Non-Hedgers • Preserve gold equity’s embedded option value • Maintain unlimited upside appreciation potential • Reduce the “supply acceleration” impact of hedging • Views of Active Hedgers • Take advantage of gold’s contango to enhance revenues • Significantly reduced contango during 2001 • Reduce cash flow volatility & downside risk • Requires the sale of some gold upside optionality

  9. Reduced Incentives for Hedgers • Significantly Compressed Contango • Declining US$ interest rates • + Stable to higher gold lease rates • = Lower contango • At 1.0% contango, 1-year forward gold prices are less than $3 higher than spot prices Source: JP Morgan Research

  10. Gold Market Dynamics Overview • Gold Players • Central Bank Lending • Facilitates short selling • Bullion Banks & Speculative Investors • Borrow gold & sell short • Require future gold flow to repay borrowed gold • Gold Producers • Sell gold forward • Provides source of liquidity for short sales Central Bank Lending & Producer Hedging Overview

  11. Promising Investment Environment • Weakening US$ Could Improve Gold Price • Gold Behaving as Currency • US$ trading at 16 year highs • Gold stocks can hedge against US$ weakness Strong Inverse Correlation USTW$ & US$ Gold US Trade Weighted Dollar versus Gold Price Source - JP Morgan

  12. Promising Investment Environment • Gold Stocks Up 25% YTD, • S&P500 Down 14% • Hedge funds less active in shorting gold • Increasing US equity market uncertainty • Increasing global economic uncertainty S&P 500 Index/Gold Price (1871–2001) Source - M. Murenbeeld Associates Inc.

  13. Promising Investment Environment • Changing Real Interest Rate Environment • Potential negative real interest rates • The last time real interest rates were negative… • US$ gold prices rose from $330 to $410 per oz. 90-Day T-Bill less 12 Month Inflation Rate US$ Gold Prices

  14. Improving Fundamentals - Conclusions • Gold Poised for Significant Upside Appreciation • Mine output set to decline • Industry marketing initiative holds significant potential • Hedging market fundamentals deteriorating • Central bank sales stabilizing • World economic & political uncertainty increasing

  15. Safe Harbor Statement PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT These materials include forward-looking information and statements are intended to be covered by the safe harbor for "forward-looking statements" provided by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions; statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services; and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the words "expect," "anticipates," "believes," "intends," "estimates" and similar expressions. The forward-looking information and statements in these materials are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Newmont, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the public filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) made by Newmont. Such risks include, but are not limited to, gold price volatility, increased production costs and variances in ore grade or recovery rates from those assumed in mining plans.

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