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The Impact of Climate Change on National and International Security and Stability. By Professor G Prins London School of Economics & Political Science Athena 11 Crisis Management International Conference Thessaloniki 1 June 2011.
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Professor G Prins
London School of Economics & Political Science
Athena 11 Crisis Management International Conference
1 June 2011
Europe is in turmoil. The Euro is failing. The USA is pulling back. NATO is divided. The Middle East on a knife-edge..so what is the crisis management problem here?
The young poet, John Keats, in a letter to his brother and sister, spring 1819
“While we are laughing the seed of some trouble is put into the wide arable land of events.
While we are laughing it sprouts, it grows
and suddenly bears a poison fruit
which we must pluck.”
AL GORE’S FILM
“AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH”
A Roman Candle
CALIFORNIA GLOBAL WARMING ACT
IPCC 4TH ASSESSMENT REPORT
389 ppm today, rising just under 2 ppm/yr
Source: IPCC TAR
“indicative” plot from the 1990 IPCC report
A.W Montford, The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science (2010) documents the battle
The effect of cosmic ray fluxes is leveraged into a great and underestimated effect on the climate feedbacks:
Cosmic rays stabilise Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei that ‘seed’ cloud particles: so more cosmic ray flux makes more clouds, more reflectivity and cooling.
Demonstrated in the 2003 Hallowe’en event: a huge plasma burst reduces cosmic rays (Forbush reductions) and is followed by huge (6%) reduction in cloud esp low cloud: shown in 5 events as ‘natural experiments’
If it’s science it isn’t a consensus
If it’s a consensus it isn’t science
and warm periods correlate with less warsTol et al., Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millenium, Climatic Change (2010), 99: 65-79
The European Union: Four Referenda Three No’s, One Yes – and still a Funeral
In the balance of real world power, the European Union Commission (and not even all of that) and the current British Government and its advisers are now isolated among the major parties in hoping for a Kyoto II on the old (ineffective) model
“The powerful do what they will. The weak put up with what they must”
(Athenians to Melians in the Melian Dialogue. Thucydides, The Peloponnesian Wars )
(Jun Arima, Japanese Government official speaking to AWG-KP Contact Group at opening of COP-16)
“...we will never inscribe our target in the Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol under any circumstances and conditions...
....Kyoto 2nd commitment period will never constitute a fair and effective single framework...
“In addition, Japan intends to promote bilateral and regional co-operative activities engaging private sector...”
USA reconfirms that it will remain outside the Kyoto/UN diplomacy merry-go-round
So it ain’t gonna happen guys – not now, not ever
Sharply increases forward prices on LPG
Seriously damages Mrs Merkel electorally and the Germans will now pay ...
Doesn’t slow the ‘nuclear renaissance’ in China or most other places...
Peter Voser, CEO Royal Dutch Shell, estimates 250 years’ worth of demand already proven. Shell will be a majority gas producer in 20 years
What could be wrong?
Enviros say no
The French Parliament says
And some deputies try to get the EU to do so too.
(France 84% nuclear.. )