Impact of Russian Energy Policy on U.S. National Interests

1. Impact of Russian Energy Policy on U.S. National Interests Maj Greg Mayer, USAF Maj Nichole Scott, USAF LT Mate Aerandir, USN Capt Kevin Canning, USMC 2nd Lt KellanBethke, USAF

2. Russia’s Multivector Energy Policy • Secure state control/influence over all domestic energy resources and exports • Leverage energy dominance to control Russia’s near abroad and to restrain EU and NATO influence in Russian affairs • Compete with China for control over energy resources and influence in Central Asia • Locate, secure, and exploit new sources of hydrocarbons (especially in the Arctic) • Increase control over downstream energy markets and infrastructure (Europe and Central Asia)

3. U.S. National Interests • Territorial disputes in the Arctic could require the United States to become diplomatically or militarily involved through its alliances. • In Europe, the United States has enduring commitments to protect allies, maintain collective defense, and support the economic and institutional development of newly emerging democracies. • Competition between Russia and China for influence and access to Central Asian resources could exacerbate regional instability. • Collusive practices between the Russian state and energy sector have effectively closed Russia to American energy companies and have created incentives for inefficient and environmentally harmful energy extraction practices.

4. Domestic • Tremendous endowment of hydrocarbon reserves • Autocratic trends in governance connected with Putin presidency • Energy export tied to government revenues, Russian GDP • High incentives for government and energy industry collusion • Domestic • Tremendous endowment of hydrocarbon reserves • Autocratic trends in governance connected with Putin presidency • Energy export tied to government revenues, Russian GDP • High incentives for government and energy industry collusion • Arctic • Land-based reserves projected to begin to deplete around 2020 • 35-50% government budget comes from export of hydrocarbons • Territory disputes • Increasing military presence to defend against encroachment • Arctic • Land-based reserves projected to begin to deplete around 2020 • 35-50% government budget comes from export of hydrocarbons • Territory disputes • Increasing military presence to defend against encroachment • Europe • State control of natural gas exports • Monopolize gas acquisition • Control European markets • Political Influence • Europe • State control of natural gas exports • Monopolize gas acquisition • Control European markets • Political Influence • China • Diversify oil supply via ESPO in Asia • Do not be a raw material appendage to China • Continue as major benefactor of Central Asia • Central Asia • Competition with China for access to energy reserves • Heavy investment in the region to discourage competition • Political Sphere of Influence – Great Power • Central Asia • Competition with China for access to energy reserves • Heavy investment in the region to discourage competition • Political Sphere of Influence – Great Power • China • Diversify oil supply via ESPO in Asia • Do not be a raw material appendage to China • Continue as major benefactor of Central Asia

5. Conclusion • Russia’s energy policy is detrimental to the global market economy • Work with allies to contain Russia

6. Вопросы?