Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2013 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2013

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  1. Greater ManchesterQuarterly Economic Survey Q4 2013

  2. WELCOME Phil Cusack President

  3. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY Dr John AshcroftChief Economist

  4. COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR

  5. EMPLOYMENT TRACKER

  6. INFLATION TRACKER

  7. UK SALES

  8. UK SALES (PRODUCTION)

  9. UK ORDERS

  10. EXPORT SALES

  11. EXPORT ORDERS

  12. EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING

  13. EMPLOYMENT IN SERVICES

  14. MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE

  15. SERVICES CONFIDENCE

  16. INVESTMENT IN PLANT & MACHINERY

  17. INTENTIONS TO INCREASE PRICES

  18. COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR

  19. International Perspectives 2014 January 2014

  20. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 GDP % 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Unemployment latest (Nov) 26.9%

  21. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4

  22. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 GDP % 2013 2014 Italy -1.8 0.4 Unemployment latest (Nov) 12.7%

  23. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4

  24. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 GDP % 2013 2014 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.6 Unemployment latest (Nov) Spain 26.7% Portugal 15.5%

  25. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4

  26. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Ireland -0.1 1.6 GDP % 2013 2014 Ireland -0.1 1.6 Unemployment latest (Nov) 12.3%

  27. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Ireland -0.1 1.6

  28. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Ireland -0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 GDP % 2013 2014 France 0.2 0.8 Unemployment latest (Nov) 10.8%

  29. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Ireland -0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8

  30. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Ireland -0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8 GDP % 2013 2014 Germany 0.5 1.8 Unemployment latest (Nov) 5.2%

  31. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Ireland -0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8

  32. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Ireland -0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8 Belgium 0.1 0.9 Holland -1.1 0.4 GDP % 2013 2014 Belgium 0.1 0.9 Holland -1.1 0.4 Unemployment latest (Nov) Belgium 8.4% Holland 6.9%

  33. GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Ireland -0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8 Belgium 0.1 0.9 Holland -1.1 0.4

  34. U rate latest (Nov) Denmark 6.9% Sweden 8.0% Norway 3.3% Finland 8.4% GDP 2013 2014 Greece -3.7 -0.4 Italy -1.8 0.4 Spain -0.3 0.4 Portugal -1.8 0.4 Ireland -0.1 1.6 France 0.2 0.8 Germany 0.5 1.8 Belgium 0.1 0.9 Holland -1.1 0.4 GDP % 2013 2014 Denmark 0.4 1.4 Sweden 0.9 2.5 Norway 1.9 2.2 Finland -0.9 1.0

  35. GDP 2013 2014 Euro Zone -0.4 1.0 EU 0.0 1.3 Europe W 0.0 1.3

  36. GDP 2013 2014 Euro Zone -0.4 1.0 EU 0.0 1.3 Europe W 0.0 1.3

  37. GDP 2013 2014 Euro Zone -0.4 1.0 EU 0.0 1.3 Europe W 0.0 1.3 Unemployment Latest Euro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9%

  38. GDP 2013 2014 Euro Zone -0.4 1.0 EU 0.0 1.3 Europe W 0.0 1.3 Youth unemployment Unemployment Latest Euro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9%

  39. GDP 2013 2014 Euro Zone -0.4 1.0 EU 0.0 1.3 Europe W 0.0 1.3 Youth unemploment EU Zone 24.2% Spain 57.7% Portugal 54.8% Croatia 49.7% Unemployment Latest Euro Zone 12.1% EU28 10.9%

  40. The World in 2014 Western Europe 2013 0.0% 2014 1.3% United Kingdom 2013 2.0% 2014 2.5% North America 2013 2.0% 2014 2.5% 2.5% Eastern Europe 2013 1.9% 2014 2.8% 7.5% 4.5% 2.9% 6.9% 6.0% Latin America 2013 2.6% 2014 2.9% MENSA 2013 3.7% 2014 4.1% Asia Pacific 2013 4.6% 2014 4.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% BRIC Brazil 2.8% Russia 2.5% India 4.5% China 7.5% MINT Mexico 2.9% Indonesia 6.0% Nigeria 6.9% Turkey 4.5% MENSA Egypt Israel Saudi Arabia Nigeria S Africa

  41. The World in 2014 - UK Direction of Trade Stats Western Europe 50% North America 15% Eastern Europe 6% Latin America 1% MENSA 7% Asia Pacific 15% BRIC 8% MINT 2% Based on 2012 ONS data

  42. International Perspectives 2014 January 2014

  43. Ten Predictions for 2014 January 2014

  44. Ten Predictions for 2014

  45. World Trade Growth World trade growth is expected to recover from an average 2.8% in 2013 to a trend rate of growth of around 5% over the next two years.

  46. UK GDP Growth UK GDP growth for 2013 will be revised up to 2% in the year. We expect growth of 2.5% in 2014 rising to 2.7% in the following year.

  47. UK Inflation CPI basis

  48. Unemployment Claimant Count

  49. Unemployment - LFS Rate