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American Galvanizers Association Annual Conference State of Steel 2011. Washington’s Impact on Steel. Thomas A. Danjczek President Steel Manufacturers Association April 6, 2011. AGA: Annual Conference. Outline. SMA Set The Tone – Washington “Stuff” US Macro Issues

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slide1

American Galvanizers Association

Annual Conference

State of Steel 2011

Washington’s Impact on Steel

Thomas A. Danjczek

President

Steel Manufacturers Association

April 6, 2011

slide2

AGA: Annual Conference

Outline

  • SMA
  • Set The Tone – Washington “Stuff”
  • US Macro Issues
  • What Does the U.S. Need To Do
  • Steel Recent History (Capacity; Demand; Shipments; Imports)
  • Steel Specific Issues (Trade; Raw Materials; Scrap)
  • Steel Trends
  • Conclusion
slide3

AGA: Annual Conference

SMA

The Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA)

  • 35 North American companies:

30 U.S., 3 Canadian, and 2 Mexican

  • Operate 125 steel recycling plants in North America
  • Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmakers using recycled steel
  • EAF steel producers accounted for nearly 2/3 of U.S. production in 2009
  • SMA represents approximately 90 million of U.S. 120 million ton capacity (75%)
  • 128 Associate members - Suppliers of goods and services to the steel industry
  • Governance – i.e. vast majority
slide5

AGA: Annual Conference

Factors in the 2010 Election

  • It’s the economy, stupid…
    • The economy was the number one issue for the American public in 2010—frustrations with high and stagnant unemployment figures, struggling housing markets, and persistently tight credit drove voter sentiment
  • Dissatisfaction/perception that government is not tackling the right issues
    • Frustrations augmented by the belief that the government has done more for Wall Street than for Main Street during the current economic crisis
    • That sentiment, coupled with increasing public concern/skepticism regarding the role of government in the private economy and the growing deficit and long-term national debt, has resulted in a general perception that lawmakers aren’t listening and are overreaching
slide6

AGA: Annual Conference

Set the Tone

  • Return to divided government
    • Control of the Senate remains with the Democrats
      • New breakdown: 53 Democrats (including 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats), 47 Republicans
    • The House of Representatives is now controlled by the Republicans
      • New breakdown: 242 Republicans, 193 Democrats
    • The majority of state Governorships are now held by Republicans
      • New breakdown: 29 Republicans, 20 Democrats, 1 Independent
slide7

AGA: Annual Conference

Big U.S. Gov’t Issues/Priorities

  • Economy
  • War in Iraq
  • War in Afghanistan
  • Health Care
  • Deficit Reduction
  • Size of Government, Government Spending
  • Homeland Security
  • Taxes
  • Financial Oversight
  • International Trade
  • Energy and Environment
  • Transportation and Infrastructure
  • Labor
  • Middle East Tensions
  • Japan Earthquake “Havoc”
  • Continuing Resolutions – Funding the Government
slide8

AGA: Annual Conference

Economy

  • While the recession officially ended in June 2009, the sluggish pace of the recovery remains a top concern for both the public and policymakers
    • “Official” Unemployment remains at close to 9.5% and consumer income and spending are fairly stagnant
      • According to a recent Bloomberg News survey of economists, the unemployment rate will stay high for the next year, averaging 9.3%
    • In early November, the Federal Reserve announced plans to purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury debt over the next eight months to loosen credit conditions in order to speed the economic recovery and boost job creation
      • Interest rates are expected to remain low for the foreseeable future
    • Facing a new political dynamic and skepticism regarding “stimulus” spending efforts, the White House reached out to Congressional Republicans to forge a deal on extending tax breaks during the lame duck session of the 111th Congress
      • President Obama agreed to a 2-year extension of income tax rates for all income levels, while Republicans acquiesced to several Democratic priorities aimed at stabilizing the economy, including a long-term extension of unemployment insurance
    • Impact of Japanese Earthquake
      • ? ? ?
slide9

AGA: Annual Conference

Deficit

  • The need for policies to promote economic growth in the short-run is complicated by the need/desire for longer-term austerity measures to address the nation’s deficit and long-term debt
    • Reducing government spending is a top priority of the new 112th Congress
      • The continuing resolution for FY11 extended from March 18, 3 weeks at a time — House Republicans had initially called for a return to FY08 spending levels, which would require about $100 billion in cuts—while cuts that large may be difficult, significant reductions are likely
      • The conservative Republican Study Committee has proposed a plan to reduce spending by $2.5 trillion over the next decade
      • House Republicans’ rules package replaced “pay-go” with “cut-go”—any new mandatory spending must be offset with spending cuts, but NOT with tax increases
      • Rules package also gave Budget Committee Chairman Ryan (R-WI) the authority to set spending targets for appropriators if the House and Senate fail to agree on a final budget
      • Republicans have instituted a party-wide ban on earmarks
    • The vote to increase the debt limit may prove particularly challenging for the Republican caucus, with many pledging on the campaign trail to vote against it
      • Opponents likely to use votes as leverage to secure commitments for longer-term deficit reduction measures
  • President Obama has signaled that addressing the deficit and long-term debt is an area ripe for compromise with Congressional Republicans
slide10

AGA: Annual Conference

Taxes

  • The cost of the tax package came in at just under $1 trillion and is being viewed by many as a second stimulus, with some economists suggesting it could increase 2011 GDP by 0.5 to 1.25 percentage points
slide11

AGA: Annual Conference

International Trade

  • Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) and Trade Subcommittee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX) are avowed free-traders
  • Items for consideration include:
    • Consideration of the stalled free trade agreements with South Korea, Panama, and Colombia
      • Administration is supportive of ratification and must work with Republicans to ensure passage of the agreements—could this be an example of early cooperation?
      • The Democratic Caucus remains divided on the issue of trade
    • Customs reauthorization legislation likely to emphasize trade facilitation
    • Export control reform could see some legislative action, although, for the most part, it will be done administratively
    • Addressing China’s trade practices
      • Last Fall, the House passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act—Sen. Schumer (D-NY) has pressed for a Senate currency vote, but prospects for action this year are unclear
      • Last October, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced that the United States has initiated an investigation of China’s practices affecting trade and investment in green technologies—will Congress enter the debate?
  • More generally, the effect of the Tea Party is unknown—the movement has an anti-government, free market strain, but there is also a populist, anti-Wall Street component and it is unclear how this cuts on any particular issue, particularly trade
slide12

AGA: Annual Conference

Energy & Environment

  • Vigorous oversight of EPA will be a general theme throughout the 112th Congress
    • Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Issa is soliciting responses from over 150 trade associations and businesses on regulations that have harmed job-growth—many expected to emphasize environmental regulations, i.e. Mercury
  • Prospects for comprehensive climate legislation are weak—will see continued Congressional efforts to slow down EPA’s regulation of carbon emissions
  • Impact of US EPA regulations on power plant emissions
slide13

AGA: Annual Conference

Energy & Environment

  • Piecemeal approach to energy policy presents opportunities for cooperation—as demonstrated by bipartisan legislation approved by the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in the last Congress under Chairman Bingaman (D-NM)
    • Republicans in both chambers will place a greater emphasis on increasing domestic production of traditional energy sources (i.e., oil and natural gas)—and continue to focus on domestically-produced renewable fuels
      • Comprehensive offshore drilling safety legislation in response to the April Deepwater Horizon explosion/oil spill is unlikely to be revived under Republican leadership in the House—even in the wake of recommendations by the President’s spill commission
    • Potential Renewable Energy Standard (RES), but Republicans were likely to push for inclusion of nuclear energy and clean coal technology, a “clean energy standard”
    • Proposals for increased energy efficiency in industrial facilities and buildings (Home Star) as well as financing for green technologies also on the table, but finding pay-fors will be difficult
slide14

AGA: Annual Conference

Labor

  • Pending or planned Democratic labor-related legislative initiatives are very unlikely to move forward in 112th Congress
    • “Card-check” legislation (Employee Free Choice Act)
    • Mine safety reform
    • Legislation to allow all firefighters and police officers to unionize
  • In fact, legislative efforts moving in the opposite direction have been proposed previously
    • Anti-card check legislation (Secret Ballot Protection Act)
    • Campaign finance reforms to regulate use of union dues to support union political activity
  • Some Democratic priorities can be pursued through administrative efforts of the Department of Labor or the National Labor Relations Board
key questions ahead
Key Questions Ahead

In the wake of Republican gains in both chambers, will the President move more to the middle and revive efforts to work with Republicans, following in the footsteps of President Clinton? Are the negotiations on tax policy a sign of things to come? Will we see cooperation on other major policy initiatives, such as the reauthorization/revamp of No Child Left Behind and stalled free trade agreements?

How will President Obama’s new competitiveness agenda play out? And what can we expect from his recent Executive Order launching a government-wide review of federal regulations and their impact on economic growth and competitiveness?

Will President Obama be able to “win back” the independent vote in 2012?

Will widespread concerns related to deficits and long-term debt remain at the forefront? How will Members concerned with deficit spending vote on raising the debt limit this year?

What is the impact of the Tea Party movement on the Republican Caucus—will the Caucus be divided on policy priorities or coalesce around opposition to the Administration? Will they show a willingness to cooperate with President Obama?

In the wake of this year’s election and the loss of a Democratic majority, will we see some key retirements in the House?

How will the current political climate affect the policy stances of moderate Senators over the next two years? What additional retirements can we expect?

Will an already partisan atmosphere be strained ever further by the loss of moderates in both chambers? Will we see two years of legislative gridlock?

AGA: Annual Conference

slide16

2012 Election

AGA: Annual Conference

  • In the House, Democrats hold few competitive districts and need 24 to retake the majority.
  • In the Senate, Democrats will defend 24 Senate seats (including two Independents) to the Republicans 10. Republicans need four net wins to take control of Senate.
  • Republicans currently have no clear frontrunner for the presidential nomination.
  • President Obama’s race to lose.
what does the u s need to do
What does the U.S. need to do?

AGA: Annual Conference

  • Assume a Pro-Manufacturing Agenda
    • Business Tax Reform
    • Border Adjustable Taxes
    • Currency Adjustments
    • Energy Independence
    • Reasonable regulatory measures (Environment/Labor)
    • Climate for investments (Jobs, Jobs, Jobs) and Infrastructure
  • Solve the structural problems that caused the recession - Real Foundation
    • Bad loans and securities on bank balance sheets
    • Reduce huge trade deficits
  • Policy incrementalism is not sufficient
slide18

AGA: What Does the U.S. Need to Do?

China

Addressing China’s trade practices

  • U.S. Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and U.S. Representatives Sander Levin (D-MI), Tim Murphy (R-PA), and Tim Ryan (D-OH) introduced in February 2011 the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act of 2011. Including Congressmen Levin, Murphy, and Ryan, the House bill was introduced with 101 original sponsors (27 R; 74 D).
  • Last October, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced that the United States had initiated an investigation of China’s practices affecting trade and investment in green technologies—will Congress enter the debate?
slide19
Global Steel Capacity Continues to Increase

World Crude Steel Capacity 2000-2012

World Crude Steel Capacity

CAGR

2,055

2,100

20

1,997

1,917

1,816

1,850

1,654

1,583

1,600

1,453

15

1,356

1,350

1,245

1,170

1,095

1,062

1,062

1,100

Current Average Growth Rate (CAGR)

10

Steel Capacity (million metric tonnes)

850

600

5

350

100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010(e)

2011(e)

0

AGA: Annual Conference

World Steel Capacity

2012(e)

Source: Worldsteel

u s capacity and production figures 2000 2010

U.S. Minimill Growth

AGA: Annual Conference

U.S. Capacity and Production Figures – 2000-2010

Source – U.S. Geological Survey – Iron & Steel Statistics and Information web page = http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/iron_&_steel/

slide21

U.S. Minimill Growth

AGA: Annual Conference

slide22

Global EAFs

AGA: Annual Conference

Global Steel Production by Process – 2009

BOFEAF

World Total 70.6% 28.1%

U.S. 36.0% 64.0%

China (Est.) 90% 10% (EAFs Growing)

*Remaining 1.3% of world total by open hearth process

moderate manufacturing growth
Moderate Manufacturing Growth
  • Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Manufacturing Production Forecast

Source: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI simulation of the HIS Global Insight model, November, 2010

F=Forecast

us finished steel demand forecast

AGA: Annual Conference

US finished steel demand forecast

Forecast

Actual ADC

Source: CSM, FW Dodge, AHAM, First River

auto build non res construction expected to recover but not to previous peak
Auto build & non-res construction expected to recover, but not to previous peak

AGA: Annual Conference

NA Auto Build

(Million Units)

Non-Res Construction

(Million Sq. Feet)

Forecast

Forecast

www.first-river.com

Source: CSM Worldwide, FW Dodge

us net imports expected to remain low

AGA: Annual Conference

US net imports expected to remain low

US Imports & Exports

(Million Tons)

Net Imports & US Dollar

Imports (%)

$ Index

Net Imports as % of demand

(3 year rolling average)

www.first-river.com

Source: AISI, First River

slide29

AGA: Annual Conference

Comments on U.S. Production

  • Recovery underway, but slow
  • Increased exports and imports (5mmt of semi’s imports)
  • Not normal cycle of recession, overcapacity
  • Relative strong demand in auto; construction lagging
slide30

AGA: Steel Issues

Raw Materials

Raw Material Cost and Availability is #1 Issue for U.S. Steel Producers

  • Many countries continue to impose a variety of restrictions on exports of vital raw materials
    • Export prohibitions
    • Export duties
    • Export quotas
    • Other measures
  • Trade-distorting restrictions on exports of raw materials
    • Give domestic producers in the exporting country an unfair advantage
    • Increase worldwide costs of production
    • Place a heavy burden on steel industries in developing countries that do not have substantial iron ore reserves or steel scrap supplies
slide31

AGA: Steel Issues

Raw Materials

Meanwhile, Foreign Government Subsidies to Steel and Steel-Related Industries Remain a Particular Concern…

  • Foreign government subsidies are a major cause of overcapacity in the global steel industry and steel-related industries
  • Subsidies to steel and steel-related industries that 1) support inefficient and excess capacity and/or 2) distort trade, are continuing and remain a particular concern
  • Examples include:
    • Fundamental currency misalignment/undervalued currencies
    • Preferential financing to add new capacity
    • Loan forgiveness/equity infusions to prop up obsolete capacity
china raw materials
China – Raw Materials

AGA: Steel Issues

  • The United States, the EU, and Mexico have challenged China’s application of a variety of restrictions to exports of key raw materials used in steelmaking, including:
    • Coke
    • Refractory bauxite
    • Fluorspar
    • Zinc
  • The restrictions China applies include:
    • Export duties
    • Export quotas
    • Restrictive bidding procedures
china raw materials1
China – Raw Materials

AGA: Steel Issues

  • China has argued that these measures are justified to prevent pollution and to preserve natural resources
  • China has also claimed a “sovereign right to regulate” its raw material exports
  • The panel will release its decision this year:
    • The interim report is due February 18, 2011
    • The final report is due April 1, 2011
  • This decision could have a major impact on international trade in raw materials for steelmaking – “Careful what you wish for…”
  • Many other countries also restrict exports of raw materials, especially steel scrap
  • USTR is very interested in a potential case regarding China’s restrictions on exports of rare earths and other raw materials
implications
Implications

AGA: Steel Issues

  • If these justifications are accepted, ever scrap producer could legitimately limit exports of steel scrap
  • This would wreak havoc on the global steel industry
  • Countries that are heavily dependent on scrap imports would be particularly affected
world scrap supply and consumption by region
World Scrap Supply and Consumption, By Region

Source: World Steel Association

slide37

AGA: Steel Issues

Scrap

World Demand for Steel Scrap

  • World demand for steel scrap is likely to continue to increase:
  • -Increased steel production in China, India, and Brazil
  • -Economic recovery
  • But a large number of countries still impose restrictions on exports of scrap and other raw materials
  • Steel scrap is subject to more export restrictions than any other raw material
  • There is a significant problem with transparency, because export restrictions change frequently, making supply even more problematic
steel trends
Steel Trends

(NOT in Priority Order)

Raw Material Availability

Minimill Growth

Consolidations

Foreign (Multinationals) Ownership

Variable Cost Control

Flat vs. Long (Auto vs. Construction)

Trade Cases

Quality and Weight/Strength/Value

Government Spending

OSHA, EPA, etc., Regulations

Loss of Manufacturing “Climate”

Sustainability

Improvements in Safety

AGA: Steel Issues

steel technology issues
Steel Technology Issues

Continuous Improvement, inc. Maintenance Reliability

Gauge Control

High Strength Low Alloy (HSLA)

Lighter Hot Rolled Gauges

Rebar Quenching

Continuous Process & Automation

Alternate Iron Units

Green

Costs (Metallics & Yield; Labor; Energy Efficiencies; Transportation; and Others)

Cleanliness (Degassing; Sulfur)

Measure and Control

ENGINEERS ? ? ? ?

AGA: Steel Issues

technology trends for aga
Technology Trends for AGA

A few thoughts…

Lead Content Concerns (EPA Rules; Prime Western Zinc)

Steel Chemistry Applications (HSLA; Strength)

Gauge Control

Quality Challenges

$ $ $

AGA: Steel Issues

technology trends
Technology Trends

Specifics

i.e. Rebar - Less alloys, more quench & tempering (Thermex)

- Coiled Rebar Growth

< 1960 Plain Mild Steel yield ≈ 250n/m2; 1960’s Ribbed Mild Bar; today high strength yield ≈ 400n/m2 w/loss of elongation

- Seismic requirements going to 500n/m2

- Epoxy coatings, stainless, 75 year bridge

Correlation between coatings & minimizing corrosion

Parking Structures

Castellated Beams

Galvanizing Use vs. Painting

Life Cycle Costs

It’s all about Costs and Value

AGA: Steel Issues

infrastructure spending
Infrastructure Spending

Good News

Early March, Congress passed legislation to extend Federal Highway & Transit Program spending for 7 months

Funding through end of current fiscal year at 2009 level

Stable Funding – bipartisan effort

Bad News

Need long term reauthorization bill – NOT A STOPGAP

Need improvements

Gas tax woefully inadequate

AGA: Annual Conference

final thoughts
Final Thoughts

AGA: Annual Conference

  • Ultimately, the world needs greater total supply of scrap, steel and galvanized products
  • U.S. is in a traffic jam, moving slightly forward, but don’t know other consequences. Don’t look to Washington, DC for help.
  • Reasons for optimism in steel in U.S.A.
    • Scrap-based, 70% of cost – local supply
    • Low cost on global basis (energy is neutral, labor less than 10%, others have higher transportation costs)
    • Relatively strong U.S. market and U.S. resiliency
    • Better U.S. company balance sheets