Global economic crisis and CIS – is it officially over?

Belarus Finance and Investment Forum Global economic crisis and CIS – is it officially over? Alexei Moisseev Chief Economist, CIS 21 October2009

Export structure and high commodity dependence Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus

Debt build-up pre-crisis as a key differential CIS external debt position as of the start of 2008, % of GDP

G7: No exit strategy likely until 2Q 2010 The current abundant global liquidity serves as the main prerequisite for the rally in the financial markets to continue. In the current post-recession fragile environment, the world’s leading economies may see little incentive to start implementing exit strategies and withdraw economic stimulus

Chinese stimulus pulls commodities markets out of the trouble

Commodity prices: sort of a recovery? Oil and gas – Brent, USD pb Metals – Steel Business Briefing Index Chemicals – Potash, USD/t Agriculture – Wheat, 1-mo futures, USD/bshl

Cost of borrowing in external markets – back to pre-crisis? EMBI+ sovereign yield

CIS exchange rates – devaluations followed a commodity price shock Exchange rates (July 2008 = 100)

GDP performance – prudence of macro policies matters Quarterly GDP growth in CIS countries

Industry recovery has become tangible Industrial production in CIS countries (three-month MA)

Monetization of the economies is recovering Money supply (Dec 2007 = 100)

Nominal GDP is not always indicative Nominal GDP per capita Coca-Cola index (the Economist)

Foreign trade CIS vs. non-CIS Nominal foreign trade turnover, USD bn Foreign trade turnover, %

CIS demand capacity CIS population

Global economic crisis and CIS – is it officially over?