New Issues in Canadian Foreign Policy

1. New Issues in Canadian Foreign Policy Tom Keating ELLA 2012

2. Foreign Policy Themes • Security – defence, international security issues • Prosperity – economic issues – trade, investment, development • Diplomacy – political and cultural affairs, immigration

3. Canadian Security Issues • Military operations – Afghanistan, Libya • Human security and Responsibility to Protect • Decline of UN Peacekeeping and increased role of NATO • Defence spending, military procurement

4. Canadian prosperity issues • Free trade agenda, including both bilateral and multilateral issues • Canada-US economic issues • Emerging economies - BRICS • Canadian investment practices • Canadian development assistance policies

5. Canadian diplomacy • Arctic policy • Environmental policy • United Nations and other international and regional institutions • Immigration policy and diaspora politics

6. Canada in Afghanistan 2001-???? • “The NDP don’t support sending troops abroad for anything…the former leader of the NDP-CCF said the following: ‘I would ask whether we are to risk the lives of our Canadian sons to prevent the actions of Hitler.’ You know who said that, it was the former leader of the NDP-CCF, J.S. Woodsworth.” John Baird, Foreign Minister, response when asked if troops would remain past 2014.

7. Afghanistan • September 11, 2001 shifts the attention to terrorism in general and Afghanistan in particular • Four phases to Canada’s Afghanistan policy: • 1. attack on al Qaeda operating out of Kandahar with US 2001-2 • 2. lead ISAF from Kabul 2003-2005 • 3. PRT in Kandahar 2006-2011 • 4. train Afghan army/police in Kabul 2011-2014?

8. Afghanistan • UN approved; NATO managed; US led operation • Canadian government policy emphasized 3D or ‘whole of government’, but largely, though not exclusively a military operation • Highest casualties since Korea; one of the highest casualty rates per country and per deployment • Primarily a reflection of where the Canadian forces were – highest levels of support for the Taliban in the entire country running about 1-in-3

9. Afghanistan’s foreign presence • http://www.isaf.nato.int/images/stories/File/Placemats/Apr-16-2010-placemat.pdf

10. Afghanistan • Primary operation for Canadians; secondary for the US and UK – Iraq came first; also secondary for NATO – former Yugoslavia came first, especially Kosovo • Political and public support for Afghanistan varied, but declined over time in all countries; the variations are interesting

11. Why Afghanistan? • A mix of concerns, but very few connected to the geopolitical issues at play in the region • Terrorism, Canadian security • Bilateral (Canada-US) relations • Human security – eg., plight of women in Afghanistan • Shoring up the Canadian military • Partisan politics has taken on more importance

16. Afghanistan: Current Conditions • High levels of insecurity throughout the country • http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/09/12/world/asia/20100912-afghan-indicators.html • A good summary of some of the future options for Afghanistan can be found here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11371138

18. Canadian contributions – will they last? • Three projects are examples of Canada’s participation: the Dahla Dam and its irrigation system, education in Kandahar Province, and the eradication of polio. • As are the Operational Mentor and Liaison Teams – multidisciplinary groups of experienced NATO and ISAF soldiers integrated into specific Afghan National Army units to offer instruction, mentoring and liaison services. For example see Desert Lions on YouTube

20. Debates over drones • http://counterterrorism.newamerica.net/drones • http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/drone-warfare-blowback-new-american-way-war

21. Changing views of security policy • End of Cold War led to emphasis on civil conflicts and human security • Mulroney worked through UN – former Yugoslavia, Somalia, Haiti • Chretien reluctantly continues – affected by Somalia and level of violence and instability • Axworthy promotes human security – landmines treaty and International Criminal Court, but also interventions

22. Responsibility to protect (R2P) • Human security used to support war in Kosovo in 1999 – Canadian Air Force deeply involved • Following war in Kosovo, Canadian government supports CISS, which in turn recommends the responsibility to protect principle (R2P)

23. R2P • Every state has a responsibility to protect its citizens from harm • If a state fails to protect or is incapable of protecting then the ‘international community’ has the responsibility to protect • This responsibility involves prevention, intervention, and reconstruction • It also involves assisting the state where possible in undertaking its responsibility to protect

24. Partisanship and R2P • R2P supported by Chretien and by Martin • Accepted, in part, by UN in 2005 with strong support from Martin • Stephen Harper elected as Prime Minister in 2006 with a minority but informs Foreign Affairs not to use ‘human security’ or ‘R2P’

25. Celebrating the ‘victory’ over Gadhafi’s Libya • November 2011 event in Ottawa recognizes Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard and other members of the Canadian Air Force involved in Libyan intervention • “We are celebrating a great military success: the success of Canada's participation in Operation Unified Protector and Operation Mobile, respectively the NATO mission to Libya and Canada's contribution to it,” Stephen Harper

26. Intervention in Libya 2011 • Background: Arab Spring – Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria • Governments resigned in Tunisia and Egypt, but fought back in the others • Libya moved to international (UN) concern in February 2011

27. Libya and R2P • Most observers look at Libya and see it as an example of R2P • Others take the view that this was another example of Western intervention • UN resolution had a number of abstentions: China, Russia, India, Brazil, Germany, but also had Arab League support including Lebanon along with South Africa and Nigeria

28. Countries who participated in Libyan operation • United States, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, Canada, Denmark, Belgium, Norway, Turkey, Albania, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Greece, Romania • Jordan, UAE, Qatar • Sweden

29. “Harper government” or “Harper’s foreign policy” • Influence of prime minister over policy tends to vary, some have a great deal of influence, Harper is one of these, though initially he cared little

30. High turnover of Foreign Ministers • John Manley (2000-2002)-Chretien • Bill Graham (2002-2004)-Chretien, Martin • *Pierre Pettigrew (2004-2006)-Martin • *Peter MacKay (2006-2007)-Harper • *Maxime Bernier (2007-2008)-Harper • *David Emerson (2008)-Harper • *Lawrence Cannon (2008-2011)-Harper • John Baird (2011-)-Harper

31. Issues raised by Libyan intervention • Use of force to change governments • Differences among groups – Arab League, African Union, NATO • Side effects – coup in Mali • Are dictators always the worst option

32. Why no R2P in Syria? • There still may be one, but this far no agreement • Current efforts are aimed at cease fire supported by UN monitors • Conflict started as part of the Arab spring, but Syrian government decided to resist with force • Some members of the Syrian army defected and this helped fuel a civil war • Civil war has reflected differences in the region

33. Syria and the wider war in the region • Some view conflict as part of a wider conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, between Shi’ite and Sunni factions of Islam • Assad governs as a member of the Alawaite minority in Syria much like Hussein governed a Sunni minority in Iraq; he looks at Iraq and is trying to prevent a recurrence (1.5 million Iraqis remain in Syria) • Outsiders see Assad as another brutal dictator, yet some see him protecting religious and secular minorities

34. Syria and UN Security Council • Russia has strong interests in Syria – political and economic • Russia and China both upset over what happened in Libya – abuse of UN resolution for a no-fly zone and have been pushed aside in the post-war reconstruction contracts; Lebanon also has a different view

35. Canada and Syria • No UN resolution • Syria’s allies make use of force more difficult • Syrian population more geographically concentrated • Syrian military, air defences more capable

36. Shift from UN to NATO • In early 1990s, Canada was the largest contributor to UN operations, numbering nearly 5,000o and representing about 10% of troops deployed on UN operations at the time • Today Canada ranks 53rd contributing 38 armed forces personnel and 157 police officers

37. Why the shift • New contributors – India (3), Brazil (11), South Africa (14), China (16), Canada (53) • Location and nature of UN operations – growing recognition of importance regional approaches • Demands on Canadian armed forces • Contributions to NATO operations • Effects on Canadian identity

38. Canada First Defence Strategy 2006 • Canada, North America, Abroad • Expanding to 70,000 Regular Force and 30,000 Reserve Force • Improving key CF infrastructure • Increasing the overall readiness of the Canadian Forces • Proceeding with the major combat fleet replacements of surface combat ships, maritime patrol craft, search and rescue aircraft, fighter aircraft, and land combat vehicles and systems.

39. Budget 2012 and Defence • The 2012 budget calls for operating budget reductions of $1.12 billion a year over the next three, resulting in a 7-7.5% decrease in the defence budget • Existing plans suggest keeping troop and reserve size as is and proceeding with key procurement projects – naval vessels and CF-18 replacements • Reductions are forecasted to take place in maintenance and readiness (training) • Doing less with less

40. Procurement and the F-35 • Procurements are always very political and highly problematic – long lead times, technologically challenging, volatile markets, competing demands, cost over-runs common (“Remember the Arrow”) • The ship-building program (28 vessels for $33 billion) was split between yards in Halifax (20 vessels) and Vancouver (8 vessels); decision made by bureaucratic committee – competition among 3 yards

41. The saga of the F-35 • Origins of F-35 go back to late 1990s, when Canada among others signs on as an interested partner in the development of F-35 • 2001 US adopts F-35 as its plane for the future; most expensive weapons program in US history ($276 billion); sales to allies including Canada are among important considerations • 2006 Canada signs on as an interested party to have input and gain access to sub-contracts; cost estimates $10.5 billion

42. The saga of the F-35 (continued) • Prototypes appear; US to buy about 2400, Canada to buy 80; cost of project now estimated at $300 billion • 2008 DND scales down request to 65, but costs go up to $16 billion – 9 for planes, 7 for maintenance • 2010 domestic scrutiny of project heats up and Lockheed Martin threatens job losses if contract is cancelled • 2012 DND asks permission to purchase amid reports of likely cost overruns and DND complicity in misleading Parliament

43. The F-35…. • Planes expected in 2019; CF-18s not expected to last beyond 2020 • F-35s have also been a source of much debate in the US • US cost estimates now at $395.7 billion – test program only 25% completed and only initial costs – operations and maintenance will bring this over $1 trillion • Well behind schedule originally set for 2012

44. F-35…. • Design by committee – single engine; STOVL; multipurpose; stealth; multi-service; concurrent acquisition – you need to sign up to buy before you know what you’re getting – this is where Canada and others get caught • Will likely require more ongoing maintenance and therefore have less flying time • Canada not alone in this - Britain, Australia, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Turkey, Israel, Singapore and Japan.

45. Main issues in the F-35 debate: • Economic costs/benefits- “Canada appeared to reap rewards from its participation; as of June 2007, Canadian firms had won 150 JSF contracts worth about $160 million.” (US Congressional Report) • Process – competitive tenders • Suitability – single-engine jets less suitable for Arctic operations • Alliance politics: ““The bottom line is that tomorrow’s operating environment will require stealth, the ability to sense and process vast quantities of information in a very short time, and to be able to operate with others, starting with our closest allies, anywhere around the globe,” Lt.-Gen. Deschamps said.” (Globe&Mail, May 1, 2012)

46. Military spending • http://ualberta.ca/~tkeating/sipri-spending.doc • http://milexdata.sipri.org/

47. Rebranding the Canadian Military • August 16, 2011: The military is rebranded the Royal Canadian Air Force, the Royal Canadian Navy and the Canadian Army. • Canadian embassies abroad were also required to display a portrait of the Queen in a prominent place

48. In the Pearson Building (the home of the Department of Foreign Affairs), this painting

49. was replaced by this portrait

50. Canada-US security issues • Defence against help • Responding to American insecurities • Asymmetrical threats and asymmetrical power