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Uneven Trends Beneath the Headlines

US Bank Outlook Forum Hart Hodges Center for Economic and Business Research Western Washington University December 11, 2012. Uneven Trends Beneath the Headlines. Risks are easy to find – Impacts are hard to forecast The fear is often worse than the actual event

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Uneven Trends Beneath the Headlines

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  1. US Bank Outlook Forum Hart Hodges Center for Economic and Business Research Western Washington University December 11, 2012 Uneven Trends Beneath the Headlines
  2. Risks are easy to find – Impacts are hard to forecast The fear is often worse than the actual event Coming out of the recession – the signals for our region are a bit muddy Differences between major metro and other areas may be growing Programs designed to improve the job market lack a solid foundation Outlook: Continued slow growth and uncertainty Pay attention to differences in economic growth across industry sectors, geography, and age groups Outline
  3. Structural or Cyclical ?
  4. Inflation ?
  5. What to Do ? CBO Forecast (% of GDP)
  6. Impact of Next Event ?
  7. Overview – Basic Stats
  8. Border Crossings
  9. Costco 50% of all revenue received Gas station is in the top 5 for the US More milk sales than any other Costco Target 50% of all sales Fred Meyer 30-50% of sales at Bakerview; less than 30% Lakeway Skagit Estimates Forthcoming Influence of the Canadian $
  10. Retail Sales
  11. Job Growth in the Region…
  12. Profession & Business Service Jobs
  13. Share of Job Growth (%) 2010 to present
  14. Construction Jobs
  15. A Slow Recovery ?
  16. Real GDP JOBS Productivity
  17. Small businesses create most jobs Start-ups create most jobs Clusters are essential for job creation “Second Stage” companies create most jobs part of “economic gardening” “Theories” About Job Creation
  18. Firm Age Firm Size Industry Sector Location (county) Average Wage Job Growth Testing the Theories
  19. You can get any result you want Change how you measure job growth Change how you account for time or size Etc. Very, very little explanatory power in the models ! Concern: Very little foundation for job creation programs… which means good results only by luck Findings… So Far
  20. Efforts to increase job creation may not be that helpful The labor force has gotten smaller and older with differences in the job mix in major metro areas versus smaller areas Job growth in this region may continue to lag behind Seattle in the near-term (it could be worse) Slower population growth suggests slower growth in retail sales Conclusions
  21. Hart.Hodges@wwu.edu 650-3909 Thank You !
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