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  1. TA Project: “Improving Emissions Control” Session 2 Scenarios for Emissions Management Dr Russell C Frost Project Team Leader

  2. Contents • Scenarios – an introduction • Three scenarios • Without Measures (WoM) • With Measures (WM) • With Additional Measures (WAM) • WoM Scenario • General – based on planning assumptions • Indicative potential damage costs • Example – electricity generation • WM and WAM Scenarios • Cost-benefit analysis and economic appraisal

  3. Scenarios - General • Alternative visions of the possible future considering • Population change • Economic development • Environmental management • Basis for estimating emission projections 2011 to 2025 and for identifying possible emission ceilings: NOx, NMVOCs, SO2, NH3 • They force planning assumptions to be made • Assumptions need to be assessed and reviewed

  4. Three Scenarios

  5. WoM Scenario - Population Growth • Assumption: linear annual growth in population of 1.15% of 2010 population

  6. WoM Scenario - Economic Growth (1) • Basis: • 7.5% growth in 2011, expected • 2.75% growth forecast in 2012: slowdown in European economy • Rebound to average long-run rate of growth of 4.5 % through 2013-2025

  7. WoM Scenario – Economic Growth (2)

  8. WoM Scenario – Growth in Emissions and Impacts • Economic growth without measures to curb emissions will result in emissions growth • Strength of the relationship between economic growth and emissions growth will vary between sectors • Emissions do have negative impacts on human health, agriculture and the environment • The impacts impose damage costs on society – often termed externalities because it is not the polluter who directly pays the costs

  9. Estimated Marginal Damage Costs (€/tonne emission) • Data from study undertaken for EEA, reported Nov 2011 • Marginal damage costs are at year 2005 price levels • Damage costs are related to source location and population distribution • Damage costs are regional i.e. not confined to the country source of emission – but excludes effects outside the region

  10. Indicative Additional Damage Costs Associated with WoM • Assumption: increase in emissions from 2010 is directly proportional to the forecast increase in GDP

  11. WoM – Electricity Generation (1)National Policies • National energy and related policies • Security of supply • Develop renewable sources to full economic extent – hydro, wind, geothermal, biomass, solar • Natural gas (imported) to be limited to 30% of electricity generation/supply by year 2023 • Use of domestic lignite to expand - use of imported hard coal to be constrained • Nuclear to provide 5% of supply by 2020 • Privatisation of generation and transmission systems • Energy efficiency to reduce growth in generation capacity • National Climate Change Action Plan 2011-2023

  12. Per capita electricity consumption and GDP – selected OECD (2009)

  13. WoM – Electricity Generation (2) Potential Demand & Generation • Basis and assumptions: • Association of per capita electricity consumption with per capita GDP – selected OECD countries • Growth of population and GDP in Turkey as indicated previously • Reduction in own use and electricity transmission losses from over 15 % in 2010 to 11.5 % by 2025

  14. Potential electricity generated to meet demand 2011-25

  15. WoM – Electricity Generation (3) Energy Mix to Meet Demand • Structured approach and quantitative rules: • By 2023, hydro capacity 66% of NCCAP goal; wind at 50% and geothermal at 50% • Nuclear comes on stream in 2020 to meet 5% of national demand • Natural gas: year 2010 capacity maintained – no growth • Year 2010 ratio of lignite to hard coal generation capacity maintained through to 2025 • Closure of oil-fired generation capacity • Key performance parameters: • GWh generated per unit of fuel (gas, coal, etc) • Effective number of hours/year plant runs at full capacity

  16. Performance Parameter – GWh / unit of fuel consumed

  17. Performance Parameter – Effective plant hours/year Ratio of electrical power generated (GWh) to installed capacity (GW)

  18. WoM – Electricity Generation (4) Energy Mix: 2010 vs 2023 GWh generated Percentage

  19. WoM – Electricity Generation (5) Potential Fuel Consumption ktonne/year except natural gas – million m3/year

  20. WM Scenario: With Measures

  21. WAM Scenario: With Additional Measures

  22. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) • CBA of the incremental costs and benefits provided by specific techniques and of scenarios • WM vs WoM • WAM vs WM • Costs of techniques for implementing LCPD have been collected – others to follow • Costs comprise investment and operating expenditure • Benefits recur for as long as plant are operated • Since costs and benefits arise over a period of time, CBA requires economic appraisal using discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques • TA will provide basic introduction to economic appraisal