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中國大陸決策機制

中國大陸決策機制. 政治大學中山人文社會科學研究所 趙建民教授. Western Literature Totalitarian Model. Before late 1960’s Total Control and Coercion Comprehensive Study A. Doak Barnett, Cadres, Bur and Pol Power, 67 John Lewis, Leadership in Communist CN, 63 Franz Shurmann, Ideo and Org in Com CN, 66

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中國大陸決策機制

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  1. 中國大陸決策機制 政治大學中山人文社會科學研究所 趙建民教授

  2. Western LiteratureTotalitarian Model • Before late 1960’s • Total Control and Coercion • Comprehensive Study • A. Doak Barnett, Cadres, Bur and Pol Power, 67 • John Lewis, Leadership in Communist CN, 63 • Franz Shurmann, Ideo and Org in Com CN, 66 • Stuart Schram, MTT: A Pol Biography, 66 • James Townsend, Pol Part in Com CN, 67

  3. Western LiteratureDifference of the Cultural Revolution • Group Theory • In Early 70’s, Emphases Given to: • Policies • Elite Strife • Structure and Bureaucratic Politics • Two Models: Rationality and Power

  4. Rationality Model • Reasoned Debate over Substantial Issues • National Interests • Coordination • A. Doak Barnett, Uncertain Passage, ’74 • Harry Harding, Organizing China, ’81 • Dorothy Solinger, Chinese Business under Socialism, 84 • Limitations: D-M Must Have Sufficient Info

  5. Power Model • Top Leaders Struggle over Individual or Factional Interests • Roderick MacFarquhar, Origins of the CR • Lucian Pye, The Dynamics of Chinese Politics, 1981

  6. 1980’s: Bureaucratic ModelFragmented BureaucraticStructure • K Lieberthal and M Oksenberg, Policy Making in CN: Leaders, Structures, and Processes, 1988; and Lieberthal and M Lampton, eds., Bur, Politics, and D-M in Post-Mao CN, 1992; Carol Lee Hamrin and Suisheng Zhao, D-M in Deng’s CN, 1995 • I. Consensus Building Central • Vertically and Horizontally, Bargaining • TGD Case • Center: 三峽大壩計畫辦、水電部、交通部、 計委、國家科技委、財政部 • 地方: 四川省、湖北省、重慶市

  7. Bureaucratic ModelFragmented BureaucraticStructure • II. Diffuse, Protracted, Disjoined and Incremental Process • No Single Decisions but a String of Mutually Reinforcing Decisions • Lack Consistent, Coherent National Energy Policy • III. 4-Tier Leadership • Core Group of 25-35 Articulate National Policy • Staff, Leadership Groups, Research Centers • SC 部會with Super-Ministerial Status • Line Ministries which Implement Policies

  8. Three Gorge Dam Case (50’s to 1986) • Different Bur Right from the Start Provided Top Leadership with Different Assessments • Major Changes in the Env (GLF) and Bur Circles (FYP) Strongly Influenced the Attention • Top Leaders Unwilling to Violate Core Interests of Major Bureaucracies • 5 Core Issues Unresolved Throughout • Flood Prevention or Multiple Purposes, Height, • Costs, Silting, Other Unprecedented Tech Issues

  9. Bureaucratic ModelFragmented BureaucraticStructure • Characteristics: • Middle Level Bureaucracy • Supreme Leaders’ Role Missing • Economy Sector • Avoid High-Level Structures

  10. Chinese Literature • 薄一波，若干重大決策與事件的回顧，上下 (中央黨校，91，93) • 印證毛的決策角色: 以八屆三中 (1957.9.20-10.9) 改變八大(1956.9)主要矛盾為例

  11. 毛決策模式 • 黨內決策 • 1. 定調: 9.19 召集中央同志: 過渡時期總矛盾是資主與社主 • 2. 宣傳: 9.24 會議「情況簡報」 • 3 .討論(觀風向): 同意八大意見者不少 • 4. 再強化: 10.7在全會組長會議: 八大決議不適當 • 5. 拍板: 10.9 全會毛拍板

  12. 毛決策模式 • 執行 • 1. 全國性宣導: 12.17-18 毛連續召集會議，討論江華(省委第一書記)在浙江省第二屆代表大會第二次會議的講話，毛指示12.28人民日報刊載 • 2. 合法化: 1958.5 八大二次會上，劉少奇大表中央工作報告正式宣告

  13. Decision-making under MaoMao-in-Command Model • Two-Tier Division of Work (趙、蔡): Mao often stayed away from the PB meet but decisions needed his approval Mao had liaison between him and PB • Unorthodox D-M Venues: 最高國務會議 (趙、包) ，省市領導人會議 • Party-State Re I: Normal Division (趙、張) • II: Party Hegemony (趙、鐘) • D-M Organs Weak: Hua was much weaker, needed backing from 李先念，葉英劍，汪東興 but Li and Ye turned to support Deng • Sources:趙建民、蔡文軒，「中共菁英政治的「結構―行動者」模式 ，中國大陸研究（ 2006/03），頁1-26。 • TSSCI，趙建民、蔡文軒，「毛澤東時期『二線分工』的運作及其對決策過程的意涵」，中國大陸研究（ 2005/06），頁1-30。

  14. Decision-making under Deng 1980-1987: Extra-Institutional Collective D-M Institution-building: Functions of PB, PBSC, and Secretariat overlapped between 12th and 13th PC • PBSC and PB D-M reduced: meeting greatly reduced after the 12th PC, PB rarely met • 十一屆五中全會恢復書記處to undercut Hua’s powers 決策權：集體領導，分工負責，two meetings a week: one to discuss important decisions, the other deal with daily business • Extra-Institutional Collective D-M: Hu Yaobang was CCP chairman but was overshadowed by the 4-men 協商機制： 葉、 陳、 李、 鄧 • Source:趙建民、劉松福，2007/1，「改革開放以來中共中央最高領導及決策體制之變遷」，遠景基金會季刊（TSSCI），頁53-86。

  15. Decision-making under Deng 1987.11-1997.2:Institutionalization of Top D-M • PBSC:日常重大事件、緊急事件、政治局授權其他事件（決策權和人事權） • PB:非日常非緊急重大政策（決策權和人事權） 「集體領導，分工負責」少數服從多 數，人選逐各表決 • 三人協商機制： 陳雲、李先念、鄧小平 • Secretariat: No more D-M: Working Institute of the PB and PBSC「首長負責，分工辦事」。掌管黨務　意識型態　思想工作 • Source: 趙建民、劉松福，2007/1，「改革開放以來中共中央最高領導及決策體制之變遷」，遠景基金會季刊（TSSCI），頁53-86。

  16. D-M in Collective Consultation (after 1997.2) • Party-State Corporatism (趙、蔡) • Old politicians are gone, no more veto powers • Institutional authority ( 黨章相關規定） increase • 「集體領導，分工負責」 • Factionalism

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