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VTEC Current Status and Future Plans

VTEC Current Status and Future Plans

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VTEC Current Status and Future Plans

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  1. VTECCurrent Status and Future Plans Jason Tuell Office of Science and Technology Mark Tew, Herb White and Arthur Kraus Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services

  2. Overview • Summary of VTEC activities in 2004 • OT&E Results • VTEC Implementation • Plans for 2005 • GHG Overview • Key Milestones • Partner participation • 10-1703 changes • Summary

  3. VTEC in 2004Summary of Activities • Delivered VTEC software to the field for operational testing • WARNGEN – short fuse convective and hydrological warnings • WWA – long fuse watches and warnings • RiverPro – hydrological warnings • Delayed testing of VTEC in four marine products to allow policy and software to be refined • GHG, Graphical Hazard Generation, software not ready for OT&E schedule • Delayed products • Offshore waters forecast, Nearshore waters forecast • Open Lakes forecast, Great Lakes forecast • Conducted OT&E 30 August – 21 October

  4. VTEC OT&E • OT&E conducted 30 August - 21 October • OT&E objectives: • Demonstrate VTEC codes and associated critical portions of the products were 95±5% error free • Demonstrate the VTEC concept of operations • Demonstrate that training on VTEC and software applications was sufficient to meet the objectives defined above • Demonstrate that VTEC quality control was implemented to insure accurate and consistent products • Demonstrate that VTEC products could be read and processed by NWS customers and parthers

  5. OT&E ResultsVTEC Product Statistics

  6. Long Fuse WarningsWWA

  7. OT&E ResultsWarnGen VTEC Product Statistics

  8. OT&E ResultsHydrology Products • Issues identified with Hydro products early in OT&E • ETN continuity for products with same phenomena and significance codes issued by different applications • By product of three different warning applications and lack of a centralized ETN database • Multiple applications used by different WFOs to generate same products • New & unique phenomena code proposed to address ETN continuity problem • Policy directive 10-922 will mandate which application will be used to generate which product • Areal flood warnings and advisories to be generated solely by WARNGEN vice WWA • Regions and partners concur

  9. OT&E ResultsWWA • Products produced by the WWA application did not meet the acceptance criteria • Forecaster workload and useability of the WWA application an issue • Offices with WWA experience generally more successful • WWA paradigm not a good fit with digital services • Errors likely in products that are infrequently issues due to complexity of software and lack of familiarity • Decision not to use WWA to implement VTEC

  10. Evaluation CriteriaAssessment

  11. OT&E Test Review GroupRecommendation • Go forward with VTEC in five WarnGen Products on 8 February (SVR, TOR, SVS, SMW and MWS) • Statistical criteria met, SVS and MWS met in final two weeks • Do not go operational with VTEC in WWA products on 8 February • Statistical criteria not met; Service Backup did not pass • OT&E sites retain experimental VTEC string “x” • Do not go operational with WBC on 8 February • Statistical criteria met for products issued (82%) • WWA software not stable • Do not go operational with VTEC in any Hydrology products (WWA, WarnGen, RiverPro) on 8 February • Descope VTEC and WBC requirements to phase in capability

  12. OT&E Decision • Implement VTEC in short fuse convective warnings • VTEC in short fuse convective warnings met acceptance criteria • Delay VTEC implementation in other products until software was improved, deficiencies resolved • Accelerate development of GHG, Graphical Headline Generation, to replace WWA for marine and long fuse watches and warnings • Conduct separate OT&E late Spring CY05 on remaining products that will have VTEC

  13. VTEC Implementation • 18 Z 8 Feb 2005 - VTEC implemented in short fuse convective watches and warnings • WOU Initial, • SVR - Severe Thunderstorm Warning • TOR- Tornado warning • SVS - Severe follow up statement • SMW - Special Marine Warning • MWS - Marine Weather Statement (follow up on SMW only) • VTEC introduced in products listed above during January in “.x” (Operational products with experimental VTEC line) mode • All short fuse convective products to be converted to “.o” mode (operational products with operational VTEC line) on 8 Feb

  14. Plans for 2005 • Implement VTEC in short fuse convective warnings on 8 Feb • Implement VTEC in remainder of critical watch and warning products by end of hurricane season CY05 • Replace the WWA software with GHG • Implement VTEC in the hydrology products

  15. GHG Overview • GHG = Graphical Hazards Generation • Utilize digital grids paradigm to represent hazard • Use GFEsuite software which is familiar to all WFO forecasters • Add capability to produce VTEC coding and format long-fused watch, warning, advisory ,statement and some forecast products. • Concept prototyped (without VTEC) last winter at 20 CR offices

  16. GHG

  17. VTEC 2005Test Plan Schematic GHG Risk Reduction & WBC Static Testing WARNGEN Development RiverPro Development Preliminary DT&E FSL Development GHG DT&E GHG IOT&E AWIPS OB5.1 WBC Static Re-Test VTEC OT&E Partner Notification

  18. VTEC Testing and Training • Repeat one OT&E for all VTEC products • Convergence with Hydro (WARNGEN & RiverPro) Products for testing with GHG Products. • Training • Provide additional training on VTEC concepts of operation • Provide GHG training

  19. GHGWatch By County • WBC Program Implementation will use GHG • Process is much simpler and can be validated • Work within reasonable SPC timeframe for testing • WCN becomes official with VTEC • May be able to notify earlier (separate from VTEC) date

  20. GHG PlanKey Milestones - Update • Basic GHG Training Delivered 12/15/04 • VTEC GHG Risk Reduction (RR) Testing (at NOAA”s NWSHQ) beginning 12/20/04 • Issue IFPS 17.0 GHG ATAN for WFO OT&E sites 1/26/05 • IFPS 17.0 deployment at WFO RR Sites (incl. WCN formatter) beginning 2/02/05 • WBC Static Tests w/SPC (use WFO RR sites) 2/07/05 – 2/18/05 • Fast Service Backup Capability Testing 1/31/05 – 2/18/05 • Initial GHG Development Completed Milestone 2/18/05 • GHG VTEC/WBC DT&E 3/07/05 – 3/11/05 • GHG VTEC/WBC IOT&E 3/14/05 – 3/25/05 • GHG Training Administered (OT&E sites) 3/28/05 – 5/07/05 • WBC Static Test w/SPC (regression) 4/11/05 – 4/21/05 • GHG Training Administered (remaining sites) 4/25/05 – 9/23/05 • National Deployment of Experimental WCN (IFPS 17.X) 5/18/05 – 6/30/05 • Conduct WBC Proficiency Exercises 5/23/05 – 7/30/05 • VTEC OT&E (GHG + Hydro) 5/24/05 – 7/15/05 • Corp. Decision for partner Notification 7/08/05 • OT&E Report Completed 7/29/05 • Issue PNS for National Implementation 7/11/05 • Deploy final GHG release (IFPS 17.Final - supports VTEC turn key) 8/30/05 – 10/13/05 • VTEC Turn Key 11/1/05

  21. Partner Participation • Provide feedback and evaluate impacts to NOAA’s NWS VTEC and WBC related directive changes • Will need the participation of the partners during upcoming test phases • Evaluate product compliance during GHG risk reduction exercises • IOT&E product evalaution • OT&E productr evaluation

  22. Changes to NWSI 10-1703 VTEC Directive • P-VTEC coding • Same ETN may appear in Multiple Product Segments of a given event • EXT action code will be available for Flash Flood Warning • VTEC in Routine Marine products • New Phenomena Codes • FA – Areal Flood, SW – Small Craft for Seas, BW – Brisk Wind • Tropical Cyclone Product (TCV) • Experimental in 2005 for Atlantic Basin • H-VTEC coding • Addition of NWS Location Identifier (nwsli) • Six new Immediate Cause (ic) codes added • Other Changes and additions • Valid VTEC event list added as new Appendix

  23. Summary • VTEC to be partially implemented in short fuse convective warnings 8 Feb 2005 • OT&E successful - determined what would and wouldn’t work in an operational setting • GHG software development accelerated to replace WWA • Second VTEC OT&E to be conducted late spring 2005 • VTEC implementation in remaining products by end of hurricane season 2005

  24. Back Up Slides

  25. GHG Testing Roadmap • Preliminary GHG DT&E (12/20/04 – 1/28/05) • Subset list of products validated (WSW,NPW,WCN,SPS) • GHG VTEC Limited Site Test (begin 2/02/05) • Backup pairs from each region (PR will use WES) • Provides test of infrastructure (service backup, Action Table) • Provides discovery period prior to OT&E (risk reduction) • WBC Static and Service Backup Testing with SPC • GHG DT&E (3/7 – 3/11/05) • Test all product formatters and software after development period • GHG IOT&E (3/14 – 3/25/05) • Use realistic scenarios with field forecasters at test facility • Identify and categorize issues • WBC Static and Service Backup Regression Testing (4/11 – 4/21/05) • Re-test end-to-end WOU to WCN generation after software upgrades • GHG and Hydro VTEC OT&E (5/24 – 7/15/05) • Additional OT&E sites added to initial group • Corp Decision for notification message (7/08/05)