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Multinational Planning Augmentation Team. Course of Action Analysis. Purpose. Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process Discuss the associated task steps Identify the products resulting from COA analysis

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Multinational planning augmentation team

Multinational Planning Augmentation Team

Course of Action Analysis


Purpose
Purpose

  • Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process

  • Discuss the associated task steps

  • Identify the products resulting from COA analysis

  • Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and operations


References
References

  • JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 1 Feb 1995

  • JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999

  • JP 5-03.1, JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and Procedures), Annex P, Aug 1993

  • CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97


Crisis action planning process
Crisis Action Planning Process

C

R

I

S

I

S

III

Course of

Action

Development

OPORD

&

Deployment

Data Base

IV

Course of

Action

Selection

V

Execution

Planning

II

Crisis

Assessment

I

Situation

Development

VI

Execution

And/or

Alert

Order

Execute

Order

Planning

Order

Warning

Order

I

Mission Analysis/

Restated Mission

II

Course of Action

Development

III

Analysis of Opposing

Courses of Action

IV

Comparison of Own

Courses of Action

V

Commander’s

Decision

Commander’s Estimate Process


Courses of action analysis
Courses of Action Analysis

  • The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each proposedfriendlyCOA as though executed against the most probable and most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation (environment or belligerent action). This analysis illustrates that the commander considered the most significant and influential aspects of the situation.


Analysis of opposing coas
Analysis of Opposing COAs

  • Determine the probable effect of the most probable & most challenging or dangerous change in the situation on the success of each friendly COA

  • Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion

    • By time phasing

    • Geographic location

    • Functional event

    • Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down


Analysis of opposing coas cont
Analysis of Opposing COAs (cont)

  • Consider crisis termination issues; think through own action, consequences of our action, counteraction

  • Conclude with:

    • Revalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibility

    • Determine additional requirements

    • Make modifications

    • List advantages and disadvantages of each COA


Task steps
Task Steps

Gather the

Tools

List

Assumptions

Critical Events

& Decision Points

Analysis

Method

Recording

Method

Analyze

& Assess

Risk

Assessment

Course of Action Analysis

Revalidate


Task steps1
Task Steps

Gather the

Tools

List

Assumptions

Critical Events

& Decision Points

Analysis

Method

Recording

Method

Analyze

& Assess

Risk

Assessment

Course of Action Analysis

Revalidate


Gather the tools
Gather the Tools

  • Friendly COAs

  • The most probable & most challenging or dangerous change in the situation and / or belligerent COAs

  • Combined operations area depiction

  • Representation of friendly force distribution and probable threats

  • Representation of environmental/civil conditions

  • Synchronization Matrix

  • Action-Consequence-Counteraction matrix

  • Identify and review existing limitations


Task steps2
Task Steps

Gather the

Tools

List

Assumptions

Critical Events

& Decision Points

Analysis

Method

Recording

Method

Analyze

& Assess

Risk

Assessment

Course of Action Analysis

Revalidate


Multinational planning augmentation team

List Assumptions

  • List the assumptions made during mission analysis

  • Validity:

    • Is the assumption necessary?

    • Will the result change without the assumption?

  • Logical, realistic, stated positively


Task steps3
Task Steps

Gather the

Tools

List

Assumptions

Critical Events

& Decision Points

Analysis

Method

Recording

Method

Analyze

& Assess

Risk

Assessment

Course of Action Analysis

Revalidate


List known critical events and decision points
List Known Critical Events and Decision Points

  • Critical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis

  • Decision points identify decisions the commander must make to ensure timelyexecution and synchronization

  • Time available for analysis affects length of the critical events list


Task steps4
Task Steps

Gather the

Tools

List

Assumptions

Critical Events

& Decision Points

Analysis

Method

Recording

Method

Analyze

& Assess

Risk

Assessment

Course of Action Analysis

Revalidate


Select method of analysis
Select Method of Analysis

  • Computer Assisted

    • Integrated theater management model

    • Tactical warfare model

    • Joint conflict model

  • Manual

    • Deliberate timeline analysis

    • Operational phasing

    • Critical events


Task steps5
Task Steps

Gather the

Tools

List

Assumptions

Critical Events

& Decision Points

Analysis

Method

Recording

Method

Analyze

& Assess

Risk

Assessment

Course of Action Analysis

Revalidate


Select technique to record and display analysis
Select Technique to Record and Display Analysis

  • Techniques

    • Narrative technique

    • Sketch and note technique

    • Analysis matrix

  • Considerations

    • Assets available

    • Time available


Task steps6
Task Steps

Gather the

Tools

List

Assumptions

Critical Events

& Decision Points

Analysis

Method

Recording

Method

Analyze

& Assess

Risk

Assessment

Course of Action Analysis

Revalidate


Wargame the operation and assess results
Wargame the Operation and Assess Results

  • Visualize the flow of operations

  • Assess the CTF performance two echelons down

  • “Action-Consequence-Counteraction”


Synchronization matrix
Synchronization Matrix

TIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT

PROBABLE THREAT

DECISION POINTS

CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER

OPN FIREPOWER

OPN PROTECTION

OPN INFORMATION

OPN INTEL

OPN SUPPORT

ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT

MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT

NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC

AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC

JSOTF

OTHERS

D-DAY/

H-HOUR

D + 1

D + 2

FUNCTION

JOINT

AREAS

COMPONENTS


Simplified sync matrix
Simplified Sync Matrix

EVENT

EVENT

EVENT

EVENT

ACTOR

COMMENT

COMMENT

COMMENT

COMMENT

CTF

CARFOR

CNAVFOR

CAFFOR

CMARFOR

CSOTF

CPOTF


Sample analysis worksheet
Sample Analysis Worksheet

CRITICAL EVENT:

SEQ-

UENCE

NUMBER

ACTION

CONSE-

QUENCES

COUNTER-

ACTION

ASSETS

TIME

DECISION

POINT

CCIR

REMARKS


Action reaction counteraction
Action/Reaction/Counteraction

ACTION

CONSEQUENCE

COUNTERACTION

1ST Priority is

Provide Medical

Support

Large Population

W/O Shelter

increases

sickness

Modify TPFDD to allow CTF

to provide shelter and

prioritize medical care.


Advantages disadvantages
Advantages & Disadvantages

COA 1

Advantages Disadvantages

Single lift in threatened cities

Almost no footprint

Duration of Operations

Weather restriction

Security is HN Force

Ability to pick up in outlying areas


Advantages disadvantages1
Advantages & Disadvantages

COA 1

Advantages Disadvantages

Single lift in threatened cities

Almost no footprint

Duration of Ops

Modifications 1. Inf Bn to conduct evac via land transport

2. Branch: CARFOR uses helos to transport

3. CSOTF assemble and deliver evacuees

Weather restriction

Security is HN

Force

Ability to pick up

outlying areas


Results of analysis
Results of Analysis

  • Identification of advantages and disadvantages of each friendly COA

  • Identification of additional assets required (if any)

  • Refinements or modifications to the COA

  • Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each

  • geographic location or functional event

  • Adjustments to any established control measures


Analysis results cont
Analysis Results (cont)

  • Deployment requirements

  • Synchronization requirements

  • Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation as a whole

  • Required support from outside of the CTF

  • Requirements for logistic support

  • Clear picture of command relationships

  • branches and sequels


Analysis results cont1
Analysis Results (cont)

  • Critical information required to support decision points

  • Additional commander’s decision points

  • Measures of effectiveness for each phase

  • Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance

  • Identification of component tasks

  • Task Organization requirements


Task steps7
Task Steps

Gather the

Tools

List

Assumptions

Critical Events

& Decision Points

Analysis

Method

Recording

Method

Analyze

& Assess

Risk

Assessment

Course of Action Analysis

Revalidate


Conduct risk assessment
Conduct Risk Assessment

  • Identify risks

  • Assess risks

  • Analyze acceptability of risk

  • Identify ways and means of risk mitigation


Task steps8
Task Steps

Gather the

Tools

List

Assumptions

Critical Events

& Decision Points

Analysis

Method

Recording

Method

Analyze

& Assess

Risk

Assessment

Course of Action Analysis

Revalidate


Revalidate
Revalidate

  • Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the mission when carried out successfully, In other words, is it aimed at the right objectives?

  • Feasible: Do we have the required resources and can those resources be made available in time?

  • Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish the mission and we have the required resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, time, political, etc.)?


Lessons learned
Lessons Learned

  • Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first.

  • Analyze the end state and transition.

  • Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged down. First cut thoughts only.

  • The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions.

  • During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.