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Demographics in the 21 st Century

Demographics in the 21 st Century. Current trends regional & local population & employment aging boomers & labor force diversity Resulting challenges. Population 1860-2004. 2004 City Limits. SDO Projections. Source: State Demographer’s Office 2002 projections.

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Demographics in the 21 st Century

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  1. Demographics in the 21st Century Current trends regional & local population & employment aging boomers & labor force diversity Resulting challenges

  2. Population 1860-2004

  3. 2004 City Limits

  4. SDO Projections Source: State Demographer’s Office 2002 projections

  5. Population by County – D6

  6. Olmsted County Growth Projections ROCOG: Rochester Olmsted Council of Governments. SDO: Minnesota State Demographer’s Office.

  7. Projected Population Growth Source: State Demographer’s Office 2002 projections

  8. How much will Olmsted County grow? • At State Demographer’s projected Olmsted share of region’s growth, it will increase ~46,250 from 124,277 in 2000 to 170,530 by 2030 • At historic Olmsted share using State Demographer’s regional population forecast, it will increase to 182,465 by 2030 • This would still require at least 20,000 more commuters from surrounding counties, roughly a 100% increase

  9. How much will Rochester grow? • At projected Olmsted share of region & continued Rochester share, around 41,000, to 126,700 by 2030 (includes annexations) • At historic Olmsted share & continued Rochester share of County, about 50,000, to 136,300 by 2030 (includes annexations) • Assumes increased commuting.

  10. District 6 Commuter Exchanges With Olmsted County To Olmsted From Olmsted 105 2,179 41 498 3,141 232 3,817 256 347 554 1,907 104 439 2,621 1,993 90 147 251 6 23

  11. Employment Growth From 1990 through 2004, we have • grown from 65,700 to 90,175 non-farm wage & salary jobs, • an increase of 24,475 jobs, • an increase of 37% overall, • at a rate averaging over 2.1% per year.

  12. 1990-2004 Non-farm Wage & Salary Employment Growth Rochester MSA Source: ROPD from Minnesota Department of Economic Security

  13. Olmsted 1990, 2000, & Projected Employment Source: ROPD

  14. Why it will be harder to continue this type of growth • Aging baby boom has reduced the rate of home-grown labor force growth • Aging baby boom puts most growth in age groups resistant to migration. • Recent sources of labor force growth have been exhausted (increased female labor force participation, workers leaving the farm, increased commuting, etc.)

  15. 1990 Population by Age and Sex Aging baby boom

  16. 2000 Population by Age and Sex Aging baby boom

  17. Distribution of Population Change by AgeOlmsted County 1990-2000 Aging baby boom

  18. Population Change by Age & Source1990 - 2000 Positive net migration helped to offset losses in early labor force population.

  19. Distribution of Population Change by AgeOlmsted County 2000-2030 Aging baby boom

  20. Distribution of Population Change by AgeOlmsted County 2000-2030 Aging baby boom

  21. Olmsted County Projected Population Change by Age 2000-2030 +18,200 workers

  22. Why it will be harder to continue this type of growth • Olmsted County will experience a 20% growth in its labor force age groups (according to State Demographer forecasts based on historic share of statewide net migration) • versus a 41% growth in employment (based on growth not constrained by labor force availability).

  23. Labor Force & Employment by Age & SexOlmsted County 2000 Census

  24. Unless there are politically difficult changes, such as raising the retirement age, there will be twice as many retirees as there are today. And there will be perhaps only 18 percent more workers to pay for the retirees -- unless there is a much higher rate of immigration, which would involve its own political difficulties. George Will PB 1/04/2004

  25. Olmsted County Population Change by Race – 1990 to 2000 1990 numbers adjusted to control total of 106,470. Source: ROPD from 2000 Census

  26. Sources of Population ChangeOlmsted County 1990-2000 Calculated based on Census and Minnesota State Health records. “Other” excludes Hispanic Whites, who are included as White.

  27. 1990 – 2000 Olmsted County Under 19 Population by Race

  28. 1990 – 2000 Under 19 Population % Change by Race

  29. Enrollment & Estimated Olmsted County 5-19 Household Population

  30. 5-19 Household Population by Race Olmsted County 2000-2003 Estimated from public school enrollment in 5 school districts in Olmsted County.

  31. Estimated Change in Population by Race 2000-2003

  32. Demographic Challenges for the Next 30 Years • Aging and retirement of the baby boom • Slow growth or decline of surrounding commuter counties • Increased reliance on in-migration to fill jobs • Assimilation and training of immigrants • Education and training of our future work force

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