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Predictive Model for Analyzing Homicides in St. Louis: Insights and Challenges

This presentation by Whitney Cunningham, Jo Pang, Robert Talbott, and Alex Dunagan explores a comprehensive model for predicting homicides in St. Louis City. It encompasses qualitative and quantitative analyses from 1979-2007, discussing critical factors such as age, race, weapon used, and offender-victim relationships. The team highlights the challenges faced, including missing data and lack of neighborhood-specific reporting. Results from the model are shared with an emphasis on practical recommendations for improving future homicide predictions and interventions. Feedback and questions are encouraged.

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Predictive Model for Analyzing Homicides in St. Louis: Insights and Challenges

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Presenters: Whitney Cunningham Jo Pang Robert Talbott Alex Dunagan Analytics: a Model for prediction St. Louis City Homicides

  2. Overview • Qualitative Analysis • Initial Quantitative Analysis • Our Model • Results • Challenges • Conclusion

  3. Qualitative Data

  4. Quantitative Data • Explored topics presented in our qualitative analysis • Uniform Crime Report: 1979-2007 • Age • Race • Weapon Used • Year • Months • Relation between Offender and Victim

  5. UCR: Homicides by Age in St. Louis

  6. UCR: Homicides by Race in St. Louis

  7. UCR: Homicides by Weapon in St. Louis

  8. UCR: Homicides by Time in St. Louis

  9. UCR: Homicides by Relationship in St. Louis

  10. Challenges • Not divided by neighborhood • Neighborhoods do not all report this data • Missing data in database • No data from 2007-2010

  11. Our model will be linked here. The model

  12. The Model

  13. March 2011 #2: Mark Twain/I-70 Industrial 4 #2: Mark Twain 2 #1: Wells/Goodfellow 2 2 #2: Kingsway West 2 #2: Dutchtown

  14. The Results

  15. April 2011 4 #3: Mark Twain 2 #1: Wells/Goodfellow 2 #2: O’Fallon 3 #3: Kingsway West 2 #3: Dutchtown

  16. The Results

  17. May 2011 4 3 #1: Wells/Goodfellow #1: O’Fallon #2: Fairground 4 #2: Jeff Vandelou 3 3 #2: Dutchtown

  18. The Results

  19. Demographics • Categorization • Time Resources • Material Validity • Data Time Frames Challenges to our model

  20. Conclusion: Our Process

  21. Conclusion: Our Recommendation

  22. Please feel free to comment or on question anything. Questions?

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