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The Economics of Scholarly Communications. Michael Jubb Director Research Information Network UKSG Conference Torquay 30-31 March 2009. Two Reports. Scope The whole research communications cycle, including cash and non-cash costs (essentially time) RIN/CEPA Journals Global

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the economics of scholarly communications

The Economics of Scholarly Communications

Michael Jubb

Director

Research Information Network

UKSG Conference

Torquay

30-31 March 2009

two reports
Two Reports
  • Scope
    • The whole research communications cycle, including cash and non-cash costs (essentially time)
  • RIN/CEPA
    • Journals
    • Global
  • JISC/Houghton
    • Journals, books, reports, conference papers, data (?)
    • Focus on UK
  • Models available for others to use to test assumptions, feed in other data etc
how are these costs being met
How are these costs being met?
  • publishing and distribution
    • see next slide
  • access
    • costs met by libraries and those who fund them
  • search, download and reading
    • costs met by researchers and those who employ them
meeting the costs of publication and distribution globally rin cepa
Meeting the costs of publication and distribution, globally (RIN/CEPA)
  • estimates for the system as a whole
  • differences for different types/categories of journal
so what
So what?
  • RIN role to question how efficient and effective are the information services and resources provided for and used by the UK research community
  • Clearer picture of where major costs arise, and how they are funded, enables us to
    • focus attention on key areas where cost efficiencies are most likely to arise (eg peer review??)
    • analyse the balance of trade between different sectors and different countries (eg UK or EU contribution)
    • develop scenarios of possible changes, and model their impacts both on costs and on how/where those costs are met
three scenarios
change over next ten years

transition to e-only

transition to author-side payment

purpose is to model possible changes in

costs

funding flows

benefits

changes all expressed in £s; but distinguish between

cash costs

opportunity costs

impact and return on investment

Three scenarios
increases in research funding and article production over 10 years costs
Increases in research funding and article production over 10 years: costs
  • Publishing and distribution costs
  • Real terms increase of £1.6bn (25%)
increases in research funding and article production over 10 years funding
Increases in research funding and article production over 10 years: funding
  • Sources of funding and other contributions
e only journal publication global
E-only journal publication, global

~£1bn cost savings, split between

  • publishing/distribu-tion (~5% reduction)
  • access provision (~36% reduction)
e only journal publication uk
E-only journal publication, UK
  • Publishing and distribution of UK-authored articles
    • cost savings to publishers of between £21m (RIN) and £45m (JISC)
    • 7-13% of publishing costs
    • assume some of those savings passed on to UK (and overseas) libraries and other subscribers
  • Costs for UK libraries in providing access to global journals and articles
    • cost savings of between £23m (RIN) and £34m (JISC)
    • 33-48% of access costs
    • offset by small rise in user print costs
    • VAT increase c £5m
open access publishing uk costs
Open access publishing, UK: costs
  • Publishing and distribution of UK-authored articles
    • further cost savings to publishers of between £18m (RIN) and £93m (JISC)
    • 6-28% of publishing costs
    • assume some of those savings passed on UK (and overseas) research authors and funders
  • Costs for UK libraries in providing access to global journals and articles
    • further cost savings of between £9m (RIN) and £11m (JISC)
    • 13-16% of access costs
open access publishing uk funding
Open access publishing, UK: funding
  • savings for UK libraries of c £120m
  • offset by increases for HEIs and other research institutions of between £213m (RIN) and £172m (JISC) in publication fees
  • differentials between institutions
  • transition costs
some key messages
Some key messages
  • Publishing, distributing and providing access to serials are pivotal, but only part of the scholarly communications system
    • c5% of the overall costs
  • Much larger costs incurred by readers in search, download and reading
  • Costs (cash and time) are met overwhelmingly by the HE sector
  • Risk that costs will continue to rise in real terms
  • Scope for cash savings, and for improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, across the system
    • and they are not just, or mainly in publication, distribution and access
thank you

Thank you

Michael Jubb

Research Information Network

www.rin.ac.uk

Activities, costs and income flows report available at

http://www.rin.ac.uk/costs-funding-flows

model at

http://www.rin.ac.uk/rin-model/

Economic Implications of Alternative Scholarly Publishing Models report available at

http://www.jisc.ac.uk/publications/publications/economicpublishingmodelsfinalreport.aspx

model at

http://www.cfses.com/EI-ASPM/SCLCM-V7/