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  1. Question? • Which lock gates in division present the greatest potential risk to health and safety and therefore should be repaired first?

  2. Step One: Criteria • Assume criteria equally important (or not). • Reflect most important aspects of evaluating risk. • Define H, M, L scenarios for each criterion. • Use three or four evidence-based criteria.

  3. Step Two: Rating • Use expert judgment to critically evaluate the available information • Develop estimates for each “hazard” against criteria • Use letters or numbers but numbers do not represent an absolute measurement of risk only a relative means for comparison

  4. Greatest Risk HHH HHM, HMH, MHH HHL, HLH, LHH, HMM, MMH, MHM HLM, MHL, HML, LMH, MLH, MMM, LHM HLL, LHL, LLH, MML, LMM, MLM MLL, LML, LLMLeast Risk LLL Step Three: All Possible Combinations This is for equally weighted criteria. Unequal weights yield different listings.

  5. Step Four: Rank Subjectively • Establish rank according to descending relative risk • Identify subjective clusters.

  6. Look at rankings, do they make sense? Have you thought properly about this issue? If they do not, perhaps you did not consider all the most relevant criteria A new criteria may be added to more accurately reflect the assessors rationale for ranking Step Five: Add Criteria?

  7. Suppose the following was added to our example Criterion 4: Cost of emergency repair H = Major disruptions to navigation or power, much higher costs to repair M = Much higher costs to repair L = Same as scheduled repair Step Five: Add Criteria? (cont)

  8. Step Six: New Ratings

  9. Step Seven: New Ranking