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Life after shopping. Gaetan Siew. 12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation. Strategy & Development UIA Past President. In the Eye of the Cyclone. Change in expectations Our material lifestyles Nature & focus of our work & career Our expectations of government

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life after shopping

Life after shopping

Gaetan Siew

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Strategy & Development UIA Past President

12th european forum on eco innovation
In the Eye of the Cyclone
  • Change in expectations
  • Our material lifestyles
  • Nature & focus of our work & career
  • Our expectations of government
  • Communities/Companies behaviour

Optimism

Great Disruption

Change of expectations

Choking cities

Jakarta ~10h/day

India - $4,5 b €/year

  • Optimism
  • Good in crisis
  • Backs against the wall
  • Stop addiction to growth
  • Rough ride to better place
  • Debt is due

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Great Disruption
  • Economic /Ecosystem crash synchro
  • Food shortages
  • Climate catastrophes
  • Massive economic change
  • Global geopolitical instability

This is your story, our story. This is the time . This is our time.

12th european forum on eco innovation1
The Scream – Our children’s children

Mankind Progress

Nature

Rio to Durban

  • Mankind Progress
  • Depth & Complexity of issues
  • Experience + Understanding

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

“The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences...

We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now...”

W Churchill - 1926

Part and Parcel of Nature

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A Very Big Problem

Global Footprint

Humanity v/s Money

Skepticism

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Global Footprint - Climate Refugees
  • 2011: Thailand Floods = 34 € bn
  • 1 000s of lives
  • China droughts = 4m families < 60 years
  • Russia = record °C – banned wheat exports
  • Pakistan, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia
  • The World
    • 2007 : > 50% urban population
    • Monster or sustainablecities ?
    • + 3 b people in South Cities by 2050
    • 500 000 slumdwellers /month
  • Humanity v/s Money
  • Sir N Stern : Unchecked climate = 20% GDP
  • Can we afford this?
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Beyond the limits

No action ?

Limits

World :

1 hectare of agri-land lost/sec

  • No action?
  • No action = more of the same
  • Problem will be fixed by
    • New technologies
    • Power of markets
    • New capital injection
  • Not going to happen
    • Will we continue
    • Business as usual?

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Limits
  • Planet’s finite physical resources
  • Capacity to absorb impact
  • 9 bn people
    • To feed (+50% demand in 2030 – World Bank)
    • To house
  • If poor grow modestly 2%/Year
    • 2050 : Global economy x 15 of now
    • Now = 140% of planet capacity
12th european forum on eco innovation4
Beyond the limits

3 Questions

Where are we now?

  • 3 Questions
  • Problem is population?
  • Market/Technology will fix it ?
  • Different economy?

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Where are we now?
  • Challenge = clear, logical, accepted
  • Herculean task
  • Maths do not work if eco grows
  • No observation of global scale action
  • Momentum against us
  • Resistance to change continues/strengthens
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Addicted to Growth

We love it!

Choice?

What is the issue?

  • We love it!
  • Political/Economical strategy of every gov/company
  • Planet and/or Civilisation
  • Not only about saving the planet
  • About saving the civilisation
  • Human Issue
  • Human Issue
    • Most importantly human

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Bangladesh

Climate refugees

World = 250m/Y

  • Issue?
  • Not when but how
  • How to adjust?
12th european forum on eco innovation6
When the Dam of Denial Breaks

Global Emergency Response

New Economic Model

Old/New Systems

  • Global Emergency Response
  • Initial response: Energy, Transport, Agriculture
  • Climate change = Symptom, not the problem
  • Expand Response to other Sustainability Issues
  • New Economic Model
  • Not involving Consumerism/material growth
  • Alleviating poverty / Inequity
  • New Energy Systems: Renewable energies
  • City reDesign for Quality of life

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • Two Responses in parallel
  • Old Economy & System : trying to fix itself
    • With existing assumptions and mechanisms
  • New Economy
    • With out of the box thinking

Sahara Sun = 10 000 EU needs

Sun = 10 000 x world daily needs

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The One-degree War

Rapid Response Possible

2 Phases

The global risk of coastal flooding

  • Rapid Response Possible
  • Coalition of Cooling
  • 50% Emission = USA + China + EU27
  • 67% Emission = if + Br + Ru + In + Jp
  • 2 Phases
  • Phase 1: Failure of growth
    • Assumption: Growth = prosperity/success
    • Resistance: to restart growth
  • Phase 2: End of growth
    • Breakthru’ in technology
    • Cities, transport, agriculture transformed
  • Rapid global change with
    • Resilience, ingenuity, brilliance, innovation

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

12th european forum on eco innovation8
Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese Sun

Survival

Geopolitical implications

  • Survival
  • Not about size/strength
  • Adapt + Resilience
  • Practical Preparedness :
    • Right Technology
  • Psychological Readiness :
    • Cope with uncertainty
    • Cope with rapid change
    • Challenge >> Decision

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

One certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change

12th european forum on eco innovation9
Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese Sun

EU - USA -Asia (China)

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

  • EU- USA - Asia (China)
  • EU - USA losing advance in innovation
  • EU o 2020 - 20% - 20%
  • China =
    • World largest solar market + Wind power
    • 2006-10: 20% CO2 reduction
    • 2020 : 40-45% reduction
  • Asia:Less subject to corporate lobby & democracy
  • Asia : Heavy R&D investment - 2012: 386 b € – 38% world
    • Energy Efficiency - New Energies - IT & Biotech, etc
12th european forum on eco innovation10
Who’s in charge?

Finance?

Media power?

Governments?

Civil Society?

99%?

Facebook?

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

12th european forum on eco innovation11
Creative Redesign

Opportunities

Creative measures

  • Opportunities
  • Winners: seize opportunity
    • HSBC 2020 : Low CO² tech = 1,5 tn €/Y
    • WEF 2030 : 13,5 tn € /Y
  • Losers: slow to respond >>> Kodak v/s Fuji
  • Creative Measures
  • C5 : Connect the City to Chaos,Crisis & Change
    • Create Urban Leadeship
    • Promote Urban Responsibility
    • Create Long Term Value
    • Shop less, live more
  • I4: Invest in Intelligence, IT & Innovation
    • Connect IT R&D to Quality of Life
    • Invest in solar/wind/bio
    • Eco-retrofit the old cities
    • Sustainable by Design
    • Value of Time
  • E5: Exchange –Export EU Expertise & Experience
    • Partner with BRICS, Asia & Africa
    • (Re)Value/adapt expertise to new markets

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

12th european forum on eco innovation12
Creative Redesign

Clean Technology?

Focus

  • First Focus : Climate & Energy
  • Food & Agriculture
  • Transport & City Planning
  • Global Energy Efficiency benefits for 50% by 2050 = 6 tn €
  • EU Renovation market = 32% energy savings
  • Clean Technology?
  • Close to Zero CO2
  • Safe and Affordable
  • Quality of Life
  • Geopolitical Security
  • Future Prosperity
  • Economic Stability

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Future certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change

12th european forum on eco innovation13
Yes there’s a life after shopping
  • Two reasons
  • Only Choice
  • Happiness Economy
  • Two reasons for Change
  • No Choice
  • Old model outdated
    • Has delivered
    • Cannot anymore
  • Happiness Economy
  • Work hard, more wealth. Buy more !?
  • Seychelles Fisherman
  • Shop less, Live more
  • More fun, clearer conscience.
  • More time, better health
  • Only Choice
  • Redesign our economy
    • Rich in happiness – not physical impact
    • Rich in Q of life – deep in human development
  • Choices: personal, corporate,national & global
  • Less money, Less stuff, more time >>> Happier

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Yes weekend!!!

12th european forum on eco innovation14
Lessons?

Amsterdam’s Café

Acting Collectively

  • Amsterdam Café – Country’s History
  • Of Art and Flowers
  • Of Trade and Globalisation
  • Of Exploration
  • All with varying levels of Tolerance and Humanity
  • Act collectively – Stop waiting
  • Decide to change
  • Decide to act in dignity & with respect
  • Connect to work
  • Raise children who think
  • Be Happy

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Amin Maalouf

“To reconcile, reunite, adopt, tame,pacify are voluntary acts , are acts of civilisation which needs perseverance and clarity . Acts that are learnt, cultivated. Learning to live together is a never ending battle that is never totally won.”

12th european forum on eco innovation15
Thank you

Merci

  • Resilience
  • Adaptability
  • Innovation
  • Compassion

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Gaetan Siew

[email protected]

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