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OUTLOOK FOR LATVIA

OUTLOOK FOR LATVIA. Janis Rekis Latvian Investment and Development Agency. ENERGY, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS 29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen. GHG emissions Energy consumption Outlook. GHG emissions. Latvian GHG emissions trend by gas excluding LUCF , Gg & %.

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OUTLOOK FOR LATVIA

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  1. OUTLOOK FOR LATVIA Janis Rekis Latvian Investment and Development Agency ENERGY, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen

  2. GHG emissions • Energy consumption • Outlook

  3. GHG emissions

  4. Latvian GHG emissions trend by gas excluding LUCF, Gg & %

  5. Latvian GHG emission trend by sector gases excluding LUCF , Gg & %

  6. GHG emission trend in energy sector by sub sector and gas , Gg & %

  7. Energy consumption

  8. GDP, GEC (TPES) and GHG indexesIndexes of energy and GHG intensities

  9. Gross energy consumption (GEC), PJ & %

  10. Structure of GEC in 2002, % Local energy sources

  11. RES share in GEC and RES-E share in gross electricity consumption

  12. Energy consumption in transformation, PJ

  13. Consumption of DH, PJ

  14. Final Energy Consumption, PJ&%

  15. Final Energy Consumption, PJ&%

  16. Fuel prices, US$(1994)/MWh

  17. Forest density in administrative regions

  18. Scenarios

  19. GHG emission forecast according3rd National Communication, Gg ???

  20. Forecast of GDP

  21. CO2 emissions in energy sector, Ggdifferent growth rates for useful energy demand Annual growth of (1999-2034) Scenario DM1 DM2 DM4 DM6 Useful energy demand 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1% Electricity consumption 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 3.8%

  22. Gross energy consumption in DM2, PJ

  23. Final energy consumption in DM2, PJ

  24. Required additional RES-E, TWhwith RES-E target 49.3%

  25. CO2reduction, Ggwith RES-E target 49.3%

  26. CO2 in energy sector in DM2 case, Gg (1)with CO2 emission constraint Allowed cumulative CO2 emissions in energy sector for 45 years (1992-2036), Gg without constraint +30% above stabilization 412542 +15% above stabilization 375896 stabilization in level 2000 after 2001 339250

  27. CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (2)with CO2 emission constraint

  28. CO2 emissions from energy sector, Gg (3)deterministic cases vs. stochastic cases

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