The External Environment for Developing Countries
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The External Environment for Developing Countries May 2010 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. CDS spreads – EU-5 vs. selected EMs Brazil, Russia, China, Turkey, Indonesia (BRCTI). Source : JPMorgan and World Bank data.

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The External Environment for Developing CountriesMay 2010The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group


Cds spreads eu 5 vs selected ems brazil russia china turkey indonesia brcti
CDS spreads – EU-5 vs. selected EMsBrazil, Russia, China, Turkey, Indonesia (BRCTI)

Source: JPMorgan and World Bank data.


Claims of eu periphery banks on ems as percent of lender s gdp
Claims of EU Periphery banks on EMs as percent of lender’s GDP

Source: IFC calculations based on BIS data.



Greek contagion fears were calmed by a momentous policy package
Greek contagion fears were calmed by a momentous policy package

Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff calculations.


Euro falls sharply vis-à-vis greenback package

USD per euro [left]; CACI and DAX indexes, February-15, 2010=100

CACI [R]

DAX [R]

USD per euro [L]

Source: Thomson-Datastream


Euro Zone growth packagedissapoints in first quarterquarterly growth of real GDP, percentage change , q/q saar

Source: Eurostat


German export orders revive in packageMarchfactory orders received from abroad and industrial production, ch% saar

Source: Eurostat


U s gdp growth eases to 3 2 in q1 2010 on stocks investment and exports
U.S. GDP growth eases to 3.2% in Q1-2010 packageon stocks, investment and exports

quarterly growth of real GDP (saar), and contributions to growth in percentage points

Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.


U.S. employment gains now firmly in package positive territory… supporting demand retail sales x autos ch% saar [left]; change in employment ‘000 (3mma) [right]

Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor.


Forward looking indicators also favorable
Forward-looking indicators also favorable package

new orders (ch% saar), DJIA (ch%, y/y) [L]; LEI [R]

Source: Thomsom/Datastream.


Japan orders, exports, and IP packageshow moderatesign of slack– waiting return of demandprivate machinery orders, export volumes and production, ch% (3m/3m, saar)

Source: Japan Cabinet Office, METI.


Japanese consumer now adding meaningfully to growth
Japanese consumer now adding package meaningfully to growth

retail sales volume, ch% year-on-year [L];

and Tokyo Consumer Confidence Index [R]

Source: Japan Cabinet Office, METI.


Country focus brazil
Country Focus: packageBrazil


Domestic demand continues to drive industrial production inbrazil
Domestic demand continues to drive industrial production packageinBrazil

Source: Thompson/Datastream.


Inflationary pressures are building
Inflationary pressures are building package

Inflation, ch% yr-on-yr [L], SELIC rate, % [R]

Source: Thompson/Datastream.


Limited spillovers from european crisis to brzilian financial markets
Limited spillovers from European packageCrisis to Brzilian financial markets

EMBI Spreads, basis points [L], BOVESPA [R]

Source: Thompson/Datastream.



The shift to the right in the distribution of monthly growth in ip points to recovery
The shift to the right in the distribution of monthly growth in IP points to recovery

Source: Development Prospects Group.


Industrial production exceeds pre crisis peaks in selected countries
Industrial production exceeds pre-crisis peaks in selected countries

pre – crisis peak = 100

Source: Development Prospects Group.


Strong ip carryover will ensure robust performance in the second quarter
Strong IP carryover will ensure robust performance in the second quarter

percent, 3m/3m saar

Source: Development Prospects Group.


International trade
International trade second quarter


Share of southern euro zone in total exports percent share of total exports in 2008
Share of Southern Euro Zone in total exports second quarterpercent share of total exports in 2008

Source: World Bank, UN-COMTRADE.


Share of world second quarter trade for developing countriesshare of world imports in percent

Source: World Bank, UN-COMTRADE.


G20 use of selected temporary trade barriers
G20 use of selected temporary trade barriers second quarter

By import source, 1997-2009, unique product-exporter combinations

Source: Bown (2010), Global Anti-dumping Database.


Oil prices
Oil prices second quarter


Oecd oil stocks days of forward consumption
OECD oil stocks second quarter(days of forward consumption)

Source: IEA, Bloomberg and DECPG.


Crude oil prices drop and differentials skew
Crude oil prices drop and differentials skew second quarter

$/bbl

WTI

Dubai

Brent

Source: Datastream and DECPG.


Wti futures prices nymex monthly contract prices to dec 2015 for select dates in 2010
WTI Futures Prices – NYMEX second quartermonthly contract prices to Dec 2015* for select dates in 2010

$/bbl

Apr 30

Mar 31

Jan 29

May 18

* Futures prices extend semi-annually to Dec 2018

Source: NYMEX.


Non oil commodity prices
Non-oil commodity prices second quarter


Ag- gains led by raw materials and beverages second quarter

(2000=100)

Source: DECPG.


Metals prices fall on eurozone woes
Metals prices fall on second quarterEurozone woes

$/ton

‘000 tons

LME stocks

Nickel price

Source: Datastreamand DECPG.


Gold prices per troy ounce
Gold prices second quarter(per troy ounce)

currency/toz

Gold in dollars

Gold in euros

Source: Datastreamand DECPG.


International finance
International Finance second quarter


Capital flows steady in april
Capital flows steady in April second quarter

Source: DECPG.


Relative to lehman collapse the magnitude of recent corrections has been modest
Relative to Lehman collapse, the magnitude of recent corrections has been modest

Source: JP Morgan and Bloomberg.


Signs of monetary tightening in some emerging market countries
Signs of monetary tightening in some corrections has been modestemerging market countries

Sources: JP Morgan and DECPG staff calculations


Currencies and inflation
Currencies and inflation corrections has been modest


Euro takes large loss vis-à-vis dollar on corrections has been modest“market failure” of EU/IMF Greek package USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

USD/Euro (inverse)

yen/USD

Source: Thomson/Datastream.


Euro cross exchange rates show obverse movements for c european units
Euro- cross exchange rates show corrections has been modestobverse movements for C. European units

LCU per euro, index January 2008=100

Source: Thomson/Datastream.


Volatility in usd libor not echoed in interbank rates for other key currencies
Volatility in USD LIBOR not echoed in interbank rates for other key currencies

LIBOR-6month rates.. US dollar, euro, sterling and yen

Source: Thomson/Datastream.


The External Environment for Developing Countries other key currenciesMay 2010The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group