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IPCC WGII Third Assessment Report – Regional Issues with Emphasis on Developing Countries of Africa. Paul V. Desanker (Malawi) Coordinating Lead Author Chapter 10 (Africa). Outline. Summary of Key Impacts Over Africa Some thoughts on Adaptation Some suggestions for emphasis.

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ipcc wgii third assessment report regional issues with emphasis on developing countries of africa

IPCC WGII Third Assessment Report – Regional Issues with Emphasis on Developing Countries of Africa

Paul V. Desanker (Malawi)

Coordinating Lead AuthorChapter 10 (Africa)

outline
Outline
  • Summary of Key Impacts Over Africa
  • Some thoughts on Adaptation
  • Some suggestions for emphasis
overall science basis
Overall Science Basis

Much improved science understanding of the issues of climate change for Africa

  • Climate system: nature of variability at sub-regional level (Southern Africa, Sahel, etc), ENSO, climate variability
  • Improved data on impacts of Extreme events (floods, droughts, major storm, disease epidemics)
  • Seasonal forecasts used operationally
african climate
African Climate

Projected Climate: Trends, Extremes

  • Persistent droughts – feedbacks between climate and land surface condition
  • Extremes projected to get worse
  • Recent incidences of extremes example of vulnerabilities and very low adaptive capacity
slide5

Cairo:Megacity, vulnerable to sea-level rise

The Nile: vulnerable to climate variability and human pressures, transboundary issue

slide7

The Sahel:

  • Rainfall Variability modulated by vegetation dynamics
  • Species loss
  • Major impacts on livelihoods
slide8

Gulf of Guinea:

Very large coastal cities vulnerable to sea level rise

slide9

Central Africa:

Land cover change interlinked with regional climate, impacta areas away from immediate deforested area.

slide10

South-West Africa

Coastal marine fisheries adversely affected by changes in Banguela current

slide11

Southern Africa Droughts

Impacts on economy shown

slide12

Cape Flora

Loss or displacement of species in biodiversity-risk Cape and Karoo areas

slide13

Floods

Populous coastal areas highly exposed to floods, also key infrastructure

slide14

East African Great Lakes

Lake levels very sensitive to climate variability

slide15

East African Agriculture

Growing season shifts have serious impacts on crops

slide16

Droughts in Horn of Africa

Recurrent droughts

slide17

Sectoral Issues: Food

Grain yields are projected to decrease for many scenarios, diminishing food security, particularly in small food-importing countries (medium to high confidence).

slide18

Water

Major rivers of Africa are highly sensitive to climate variation; average runoff and water availability would decrease in Mediterranean and southern countries of Africa (medium confidence).

slide19

Vector Diseases

Extension of ranges of infectious disease vectors would adversely affect human health in Africa (medium confidence).

- MORE MALARIA!

slide20

Vector Diseases

Desertification would be exacerbated by reductions in average annual rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture, especially in southern, North, and West Africa (medium confidence).

slide21

Settlements

Coastal settlements in, for example, the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Gambia, Egypt, and along the East–Southern African coast would be adversely impacted by sea-level rise through inundation and coastal erosion (high confidence).

slide23

Overall Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive capacity of human systems in Africa is very low due to lack of economic resources and technology.

adaptation constraints
Adaptation Constraints

Region very diverse: while common problems, LDCs have differentiated needs given their very low economic ability

adaptation constraints1
Adaptation Constraints

Multiple stresses: health, land use, climate, economics etc interlinked in affecting livelihoods.

Complicates assessment of impacts, but requires that climate change be considered in context of sustainable development.

adaptation constraints2
Adaptation Constraints

Adaptation to adverse impacts is local:

  • need to understand local climate change related hazards and develop programs to minimize risks at the local and regional level.
  • Each sector and region has critical needs, especially in LDCs where delayed action would make future actions more costly and lead to more damage
slide27

Overall Vulnerability High

Vulnerability of human systems high as a result of heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture; frequent droughts and floods; and poverty.

some gaps opportunities for progress
Some Gaps – Opportunities for Progress
  • Lots of progress in observation of climate: need continued efforts
  • Remote sensing systems offer regional monitoring capability that cannot be matched by ground systems
  • Need more regional and national integrated assessment of impacts linked with development plans