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IPCC WGII Third Assessment Report – Regional Issues with Emphasis on Developing Countries of Africa. Paul V. Desanker (Malawi) Coordinating Lead Author Chapter 10 (Africa). Outline. Summary of Key Impacts Over Africa Some thoughts on Adaptation Some suggestions for emphasis.
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Paul V. Desanker (Malawi)
Coordinating Lead AuthorChapter 10 (Africa)
Much improved science understanding of the issues of climate change for Africa
Projected Climate: Trends, Extremes
The Nile: vulnerable to climate variability and human pressures, transboundary issue
Morocco:North Atlantic Oscillation – climate variability and major impacts on fisheries
Very large coastal cities vulnerable to sea level rise
Land cover change interlinked with regional climate, impacta areas away from immediate deforested area.
Coastal marine fisheries adversely affected by changes in Banguela current
Impacts on economy shown
Loss or displacement of species in biodiversity-risk Cape and Karoo areas
Populous coastal areas highly exposed to floods, also key infrastructure
Lake levels very sensitive to climate variability
Growing season shifts have serious impacts on crops
Grain yields are projected to decrease for many scenarios, diminishing food security, particularly in small food-importing countries (medium to high confidence).
Major rivers of Africa are highly sensitive to climate variation; average runoff and water availability would decrease in Mediterranean and southern countries of Africa (medium confidence).
Extension of ranges of infectious disease vectors would adversely affect human health in Africa (medium confidence).
- MORE MALARIA!
Desertification would be exacerbated by reductions in average annual rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture, especially in southern, North, and West Africa (medium confidence).
Coastal settlements in, for example, the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Gambia, Egypt, and along the East–Southern African coast would be adversely impacted by sea-level rise through inundation and coastal erosion (high confidence).
Adaptive capacity of human systems in Africa is very low due to lack of economic resources and technology.
Region very diverse: while common problems, LDCs have differentiated needs given their very low economic ability
Multiple stresses: health, land use, climate, economics etc interlinked in affecting livelihoods.
Complicates assessment of impacts, but requires that climate change be considered in context of sustainable development.
Adaptation to adverse impacts is local:
Vulnerability of human systems high as a result of heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture; frequent droughts and floods; and poverty.