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Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification. Method. NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation verification Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations and radar estimates Data has a resolution of 4km http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpanl/stage4/

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method
Method
  • NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation verification
    • Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations and radar estimates
    • Data has a resolution of 4km
    • http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpanl/stage4/
  • Nearest neighbor is used to move stage iv data to model data to observation site
  • Verification was performed on 12 hour accumulations at various forecast hours
    • For the 24 hr model forecast, verified the amount of precipitation accumulated for the 12 hr period ending at the time the 24 hour forecast is valid (i.e. for a 24 hr fcst from a 15 Nov 00Z model run, verify the precipitation that fell during the period 15 Nov 12Z – 16 Nov 00Z
  • Statistics generated for several precipitation thresholds: >1mm, >6.25mm(.25in), >12.5mm(.5in),>25mm(1in)
nov 25 12z model run wrf 5 4 km
Nov 25 12Z Model RunWRF 5.4 km
  • On the following displays, the solid color is the model forecast
  • Dots and other symbols are the Stage IV precipitation observations
    • The color and shape of observations symbols represent the amount of precipitation accumulated in a 12 hour period ending at the forecast valid time
  • Statistics calculated for data displayed in the image
slide4

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 18hr

Accumulation Period: 20081125 18Z –

20081126 06Z

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 24hr

Accumulation Period: 20081126 00Z –

20081126 12Z

slide5

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 30hr

Accumulation Period: 20081126 06Z –

20081126 18Z

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 36hr

Accumulation Period: 20081126 12Z –

20081127 00Z

slide6

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 42hr

Accumulation Period: 20081126 18Z –

20081127 06Z

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 48hr

Accumulation Period: 20081127 00Z –

20081127 12Z

slide8

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 18hr

Accumulation Period: 20081125 18Z –

20081126 06Z

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 24hr

Accumulation Period: 20081126 00Z –

20081126 12Z

slide9

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 30hr

Accumulation Period: 20081125 06Z –

20081126 18Z

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 36hr

Accumulation Period: 20081126 12Z –

20081127 00Z

slide10

Model Run: 20081125 12Z

Forecast: 42hr

Accumulation Period: 20081126 18Z –

20081127 06Z

domain verification
Domain Verification
  • Period of verification is from 15 Oct – 28 Nov 2008
  • During this period there were two major precipitation events over the area of interest
  • Not sure why the 30hr forecast shows higher skill compared to other forecasts
    • Probably due to the limited number of forecasts with precipitation for period