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Volcanic Hazards and Cities. Global Urban Population at Risk?. Volcanic Eruption Phenomena and Hazards. “Understanding Volcanic Hazards”—Video produced by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior. Ash fall Pyroclastic (ash) flows Lava Flows

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volcanic eruption phenomena and hazards
Volcanic Eruption Phenomena and Hazards

“Understanding Volcanic Hazards”—Video produced by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior

  • Ash fall
  • Pyroclastic (ash) flows
  • Lava Flows
  • Lahars (volcanic mudflows)
  • Earthquakes
  • Tsunamis
  • Volcanic Gases
manila philippines
Manila, Philippines
  • Population, metro area—10 million
  • Two caldera complexes, many smaller volcanoes
  • Last large-scale eruption—Taal, 5380 years ago
  • Last smaller eruption—Taal, 1977 AD

PhiVolcs

manila philippines5
Potential risks from:

Ash fall

Pyroclastic (ash) flows

Gases

Lava flows (low probability)

Response and Planning

Mapping of deposits from past eruptions

Geophysical monitoring

Emergency response plans (near Taal, but not Manila)

Education (near Taal), including the public and students

Manila, Philippines
auckland new zealand
Auckland, New Zealand

Kermode, 1992

  • Population— ~1 million
  • Located in a 360 km2 volcanic field; scoria cones and tuff rings
  • 49 volcanoes erupted during the last 140,000 years
  • Last eruption about 1000 years ago
slide7

Auckland, New Zealand

Potential risks from:

  • Ash fall; ballistic ejecta
  • Pyroclastic surges
  • Gases
  • Lava flows
  • Potential hazards of pyroclastic flows from distant calderas

Response and Planning

  • Mapping of deposits from past eruptions
  • Geophysical monitoring
  • Emergency response plans; evacuation and infrastructure protection
  • Education including the public and students
quito ecuador
Quito, Ecuador
  • Population—1.1 million
  • Located below Guagua Pichincha, a large composite cone (stratovolcano)
  • 12 eruption periods since 1533 AD.
  • Erupting now (since October, 1999)

M. Hall

El Comercio

slide9

Quito, Ecuador

Response and Planning

  • Mapping of deposits from past eruptions
  • Geophysical monitoring
  • Emergency response plans; evacuation, cleanup
  • Education including the public and students
  • Especially good reporting on eruptions in the newspapers

Potential risks from:

  • Ash fall; ballistic ejecta
  • Pyroclastic flows
  • Mudflows (lahars)
  • Gases
seattle tacoma washington usa
Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA
  • Population, metro Seattle and Tacoma—3.4 million
  • Mount Rainier, large composite cone (strato-volcano) east of the cities
  • Over the last several thousand years, lahars (mudflows) have reached the lowlands every 500-1000 years
  • Minimal risk from Mt. Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes (northeast of Seattle)

USGS, 1997

slide11

Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA

Response and Planning

  • Mapping and dating of deposits from past eruptions
  • Geophysical monitoring, especially seismic detection of collapse and flow monitors along valleys
  • Emergency response plans for communities along valleys; warning systems
  • Education—students and public

Potential risks from:

  • Lahars (mudflows) along valleys radiating from Mt. Rainier
  • Minimal risk from ash fall; fallout usually to the east
napoli italy
Napoli, Italy

US Army, 1944

Orsi et al., 1998

napoli italy13
Napoli, Italy
  • Population, metro area— ~3 million
  • Vesuvius; frequent historic eruptions; last eruption 1944 AD
  • Phlegrean Fields; two calderas (last large eruption 12,000 years ago); multiple smaller scoria cones and tuff rings (last eruption-1538 AD); restless calderas

Il Mattino, 1906

slide14

Napoli, Italy

Response and Planning

  • Mapping and dating of deposits from past eruptions; tectonic framework
  • Geophysical monitoring— Seismic, GPS, Gases, Tilt, Temperature variation, etc.
  • Emergency response plans with Civil Defense, City, Province
  • Education—students and public; museums; publications; public lectures and TV presentations

Potential risks from:

  • Earthquakes, uplift and subsidence
  • Ash fall and pumice fall
  • Pyroclastic surges and flows
  • Lava Flows
  • Gases
  • Panic
idndr iavcei decade volcano projects reducing volcanic disasters leader chris newhall
IDNDR—IAVCEI Decade VolcanoProjects-"Reducing Volcanic Disasters”Leader—Chris Newhall

Decade Volcanoes Near Cities:

  • Colima, Mexico (Colima)
  • Merapi, Indonesia (Yogyakarta)
  • Mount Rainier, USA (Seattle-Tacoma)
  • Santa Maria, Guatemala (Quezaltenango)
  • Taal, Philippines (Manila, Batangas)
  • Sakurajima, Japan (Kagoshima City)
  • Vesuvius, Italy (Napoli)
  • Galeras, Colombia (Pasto)
  • Teide, Spain (Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
  • Avachinsky-Koriaksky, Russia (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
disciplines represented at cities on volcanoes workshops
Volcanology

Geographic Information Systems

Public Health

Remote Sensing

Risk Analysis

Civil Engineering

Hydrology

Sociology & Psychology

Civil Defense

City Management

City Planning

Education

The Media (Science Reporters)

City Officials

Insurance Industry

Infrastructure management

Disciplines Represented at “Cities on Volcanoes” Workshops

“Cities on Volcanoes-Roma/Napoli, Auckland, and Hilo

what should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century
What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century?
  • Follow the examples for integrated programs of observation, planning and education established in several of the world’s “volcano cities.” Use the potential for Geographic-Information System-based integrated analysis, with heavy use of visualization to present results.
  • Continue to raise the level of awareness of volcanic risk. Use all available modern educational tools, including the internet. Integrate disaster awareness into the culture (e.g., a “national disaster day”). Annual training of civil defense officials with “virtual reality” scenarios that require real-time responses.
what should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century continued
What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century? (continued)
  • Earth scientists working for the cities, with integrated teams, which include environmental scientists, engineers, planners, and social scientists to prepare science- and culture-based emergency response plans. Frequent workshops and meetings like “Cities on Volcanoes.”
  • Provide the scientific basis for cost-benefit analyses of the value of mitigation and disaster education to decision-makers. Get the politicians and business people involved.
who pays for urban disaster mitigation in the volcano cities
Who pays for urban disaster mitigation in the “volcano cities?”
  • Traditional support
    • The Nation
    • The State
    • National and international disaster relief organizations and NGO’s (always comes after an eruption; very little goes toward mitigation)
    • The insurance industry (again, after the eruption)
  • Non-traditional support
    • The insurance industry (great interest in mitigation and threat reduction)
    • The utilities (infrastructure)—mitigation, hardening facilities
slide24
Volcanoes, integrated science, and cities in the 21st century—Suggestions for Professional Geoscience Associations
  • “GeoRisk” program for the International Unions of Geodesy and Geophysics and Geological Sciences
  • 2000-2010—the proposed “Decade of Geosciences in the Cities” with each nation picking a “decade city” for integrated scientific study
  • Urban geoscience curricula need to be encouraged at universities
  • Communicate the importance of geosciences to mayors, city planners and engineers
  • We (geoscientists) need to “come out of the woods” and into the cities